Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

Broke through the 700p at long last.

GRRRRR

i sold my holding this am at just under 700p on the news of the mauritanian military coup - the news hit every other oil company exposed to Mauritania (HNR -9%, SEY -6% for example) and expected Dana to suffer too - looks like im going to have to pay more to buy them back (at least what i missed out on here i saved on SEY).

rumoured to be a broker note today suggesting switch from BUR to DNX and CNE and also some city rumours that chinese oil co is looking at DNX or BG. after failing in a takeover in the US

Fund a list
I don't believe it!!! After all that research you shouldn't be looking at the news, you didnt listen to your own research, you got a nice few bob though.

Driver

it was a risk reward short term decision - i thought the impact the coup was having on HNR, SEY et al was going to effect DNX and thought I was being clever (thought the max upside over a few weeks was 5% with a potential downside of 10-20%) - let it drop back to 600-650 and buy back in rather than let it rise to 750 then buy back in. Knowing my luck there will be an RNS tomorrow morning and theyll be over 8 before i can get back in

You win some you lose some.............

Am starting to regret selling these at 160p (ish) last year- or was it 2 years ago - whenever - a bum decision

Baza

Fundy,

Sorry to hear you got caught out like you did. If I had a sizable position here I might have done the same as you did with your sell before the market reacted to the Coup news. Do you have any thoughts on why the sharp rise in DNX on Wed? Have you seen the actual note? I thought there might have been an drilling update today to back up Wed's price movements but not today. I think the CNOOC rumours were also around PMO and Woodside, usual media stuff perhaps.

Gav

I dont have an issue with my sale - it still strikes me as the sensible thing to have done, and what i have lost here i have gained on sterling. Im still amazed that DNZ went up 5% on the day the coup news came out.

Havent seen the note, though the comment was from one of the more reliable posters across the way (he holds both so not likely to be a ramp).

Now trying to find a point to re-enter - could have done without the rise again this am lol

Thread for the more intelligent.

http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=8461#lastread

800p here we come.

Deramp warning!!!! 700p here we come

Driver - only managed to get half my original holding back at 725 so would appreciate a quick dip just to allow me to top up.

In all seriousness - while the oil price continues to rise then the SP will run away with all current and future production unhedged. Strong newsflow expected will only add more impetus

Fund a list
Welcome back, you can have a quick dip for one day only then onwards and upwards.

Fund a list
It doesn't look like a quick dip today we are through the 800p.

Driver

bought some more first thing - nearly got em all back - has cost me about 4% more than i sold them for :-(( still think the decision i made at the time was sensible - amazed that Dana didnt react to the mauritania news

Still going strong 900p on the horizon.

Driver

nice little RNS yesterday - news on Fiacre should be imminent too - also see one of the analysts (Brightwell?) downgraded to underweight yesterday

Fund a list
The downgrade didn't have much efect, going up steady.

KBC's Tony Alves was also at it again with DNX yesterday also giving a "reduce". He's really called this and SIA right over the last few months! In March he said "sell" DNX at 519, but now it's reduce! Lol!!

"KBC Peel Hunt says hold Wyevale Garden Centres (LSE: WGC.L - news) and reduce Dana Petroleum "

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/050824/336/fqcpx.html

Gav lol

Have you bought in yet?

KBC have written several notes on DNX in which the factual content is dubious to say the least imho. One of the guys on ADVFN has written to the analyst challenging the content of the latest one - needless to say he's still waiting for a response.

What i find amazing is that they are still working on an average oil price for this yr of circa $40 falling to $30 over the next 2 yrs and they are valuing reserves at approx $7 whereas the last few deals that have gone through have been at $15-$20. You have to pity the poor people who blindly follow these anal cysts and cant do their own research - happy to hold (would add if i wasnt already heavily exposed)

Fundy,

Got a small SB running just now which is doing okay. To go in heavier here I would have to sell some SIA and right now I'm not wanting to do that. Could have taken a bigger SB but didn't want to over-leverage myself. Might look to add some more over time depending on events etc. Been buying elsewhere this week so funds are a bit tight right now. I like to keep a bit in reserve in case something tasty comes up.

As to the "anal cycsts" Lol!! Funny that you should mention the fact that someone questioned their analysis and factual content on a DNX, wrote to KBC and had no reply. I'm sure you won't be shocked to find that the same thing happened in May of this year when they put out a note after SIA's recent CNV-3X well results came in. In their note, they refered to the well just haven been drilled as CNV-2X and not CNV-3X. Bit of a factual error there then! A respected poster on TMF posted on the site a letter he posted to Tony Alves pointing out quite a few errors in the note. Needless to say he hasn't had a reply either.

Looking at it this way, if you'd sold all your DNX when KBC advised, and I sold all my SIA when they advised, we'd both be considerable less well off, and very hacked off no doubt!

Latest round of north sea licenses announced this am:

http://www.og.dti.gov.uk/upstream/licensing/23_rnd/by_operator.xls

http://www.og.dti.gov.uk/upstream/licensing/23_rnd/23R_Award_map5.pdf