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Chartist,

Without giving too much away as this is covered on Scrip's course, the normal game plan would be to back Chelsea before the start and green up as soon as they scored for a guaranteed profit regardless of the final result.

Scrip, Have I given too much away??

My strategy was to to lay Blackburn, then I greened up when Chelsea scored. But if they didn't score, I still could have greened up near the end of the match as the odds for the draw came down.

The fact that they only managed one goal I think shows that a 0-0 draw was a reasonable possibility.

Is there any what-if tools on betfair. Whlist coming to grips with all this it would be nice to be able to understand what potential profits\losses may be, if I attempt to green up or reduces losses if things go against me.

cunningham, click on Settings above the prices and tick "Show a separate future position (prefixed ) (As if unplaced bets were matched)"

Cunningham

When you are in the page for the event you are betting on, under the title of the event you will see the word "settings" in square brackets in blue. If you click on this, then mark the third box down "show a separate future position" as you enter a bet (and before you submit) it will show you a second column which will show your position if you submit the bet

He's got too much time on his hands to have written all that :-0

Found it, many thanks.

Kajman,

The strategy you describe of laying the draw at the start and then greening up near the end if it was still 0-0 would not work. It would actually cost you money the longer into the game you left it.

There are many good and bad times to involve yourself in a match or not depending on the starting price and how the match unfolds. Because the market is pretty efficient its all about figuring out what is about to happen IMHO and taking a position of appropiate risk against that.

Anyone know how to get commentary on games such as tonights Wolves v Sunderland?

Bit frustrating having it there to trade but am reluctant without knowing what's going on. Would digital radio for example give me the local station in either of those areas?

Just realised it's tomorrow night.

Harlosh

Most teams (except some of the bigger Prem clubs - and West Ham, lol - who are too snooty and think they can do their own sites better!) are supported by the premiumtv "World" websites (I subscribe to Reading World for example). Subscription gives you access to live local radio commentary of every game in the land near enough. It's 34.99 pa but as a Betfair expert you recover that in 5 minutes.

It doesn't matter whose site you subscribe through, you get all the commentaries. Google in your team followed by FC and this usually gets you the site at the top. All URLs have PremiumTV in them.

Thanks very much Bones. Sounds perfect. Cheap at twice the price by the sound of it.

Harlosh, I wasn't laying the draw I was laying Blackburn. A Chelsea win or a draw would give me a profit. As long as the match progressed towards either one of those outcomes I could green up.

Sorry Kajman, mis understood you. My aplogies.

Kajman

surely the problem with that is that your profit is on the blackburn line, so when you are greening up you are greening up at a very high price - ie say you are 100 on a blackburn win but blackburn are 50 to win then you only green up for 2 whereas if you had been backing chelsea you would be greening up at 1.2 or so.

Fundamentalist

I layed at 8.6, for a 20 win, risking losing 150 only if Blackburn had scored first and had looked like winning for the whole of the game, a risk I thought was worth taking :-)

As it happened I greened up after 5 minutes and took a 14 profit.

I thought that there is always a reasonable chance of a draw which was why I didn't back Chelsea. But I'm interested in other peoples tactics.

Kajman,

The risk of losing 150 in order to gain 20, in my opinion doesn't seem very logical.

I can't remember the exact odds to back Chelsea but it was approx 1.6. Backing the draw was about 3ish. Rather than just laying Blackburn at 8.6 surely it would have been wiser to have put a proportion of your 150 risk on backing both Chelsea and the Draw.

Your risk/reward ratio would be much better!

Kajman

You risked 150 to win 14.

If you had backed Chelsea to lose 150 you would have backed 250 at 1.6. When Chelsea scored i guess the price became about 1.3 (may have been lower) which would have been 75 (250*(1.6-1.3)) to green up at 1.3 giving you a profit of 57.70.

Was the risk of the draw worth the difference between 14 and 57.70 in profit?

bakko

I don't understand you there. Assuming that Chelsea win was 1.6 and the draw was 3 , then I can't get a win of 20 on either result coming in by splitting 150 between them.

The best I can do is to put 98 on Chelsea and 52 on the draw.
Then if Chelsea win, I get 59 - 52 = 7
or if a draw, I get 104 - 98 = 6.