Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Seymour,

May I make a suggestion please, as it's clear that you've moved from the protection phase to the optimisation phase and I'm not sure that simply picking a random number x pips below the price is the best solution?

Cable is clearly going up now on every chart from M1 to H4 and it's possible that the low post MPC might also represent a turning point on the dailies.

Why not start by thinking about how long you're going to be happy to run with this trade. If you'd like to bank your profits at some stage today or this evening and get a good nights sleep, then you need to be looking at the M5 or M15 charts. If you're happy to sleep on it and see if it will follow through tomorrow or the rest of the week, then you need to be looking at H1 or H4.

Once you've decided upon a chart which best suits your intended timeframe, why not pick a moving average which is giving it support and use that as your trailing stop?

For instance, the SMA45 is currently at 2.0416 on the M5 and at 2.0356 on the M15. If you're looking further out, then your stop should perhaps be left at entry for now until the MA's catch up.

Just a thought.

Interesting I would have moved stop to 2.0400 now...perhpas thats why I dont get the bigger moves...

Going to be switching to forex futures on the globex exchange as from wed instead of the cash,, been told the charts are a little less spikey, been looking at the forex futures daily"s and do seem less spikey,anyone any experience or advice? still just plodding away at moment ,mainly watching and observing forex for now, being sensible and learning to walk before i can run,not as easy as i first thought, it didnt help the first day i actually traded was one of the best trending days in ages and an unusually big move,i soon came back down to earth with a relaity check after gettting very excited:-)

Hmm, thanks Hils. The number was chosen based on being just above the previous day's high and just under this morning's move up.

It was my intention to run several days but I'm not going to be around much tomorrow so I think I need to lock in a fair amount of profit now so will go for the higher figure.

This is probably the hardest thing to decide on once you've got a decent move under your belt, it's so frustrating to see a move against your position stop you out for a half decent profit only to see it run off to the moon. It's happened so many times that I wanted to get the best. I now have an SMA 45 on the M5 of 2.0435 so have stuck that in.

Seymour,

To get the best of both worlds, if you're running the trailing stop on the M5 try not adjusting it tighter after about 5pm or 6pm tonight if you're still in the trade, so as not to get taken out by the Asian range.

Thanks Hil, wise words as ever :-)

If I can't get you a seat on that chopper, Seymour, I shall look upon it as a personal failure. I'm on a mission.

:o)

U. K.''s factory gate annual inflation hit a 16-year high in November, driven by higher petrol costs and food prices. The latest data adds to the central bank''s concerns, which is struggling to strike a balance between rising inflationary pressures and slowing growth. A report from the Office for National Statistics, or ONS, showed Monday that the overall output price index rose 4.5% year-on-year in November, after climbing a revised 3.9% in October. Economists had expected a rate of 4.3% for November. The ONS stated that the November rise was the highest rate of annual increase since August 1991, when the index moved up 5.2%. On a monthly basis, the output price index rose 0.5% in November, largely due to increase in prices of petrol products, food products and tobacco and alcohol products. In October, output prices were up 0.6% over the previous month. Economists were looking for an increase of 0.4%. A 3.7% jump was witnessed in the prices of petrol products in the month of November, which was the highest monthly rate of increase since September 2005. Compared to the same month last year, prices of petrol products stood 18.5% higher, logging the biggest increase since July 2000. Food prices were up 0.7% during the month of November, propelled by a 3.9% rise in prices of bread, pastry and cake products especially fresh bread. On a yearly basis, food prices climbed 6.6%, recording the highest rate of increase since July 1993. Excluding food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum, output prices increased 2.2% over the same month last year, less than the expected rate of 2.4%. In October, the prices stood 2.3% higher. Core output prices edged up 0.1% from the previous month, while the increase was expected at 0.2%. Input price annual inflation shot up to mark a double-digit growth of 10.3% in November from a downwardly revised 8.5% in October. Economists had predicted a rate of 9.2% for November. The November input price annual inflation rate is the largest rate of increase since July 2006, when it was up 10.6%. Compared to the previous month, input prices moved up a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in November, a tad slower than the 1.8% recorded in October. Expectations were pegged at 1.4%.In November, input prices were driven by higher prices of crude oil, fuels and home produced food, the ONS said. Crude oil prices moved up a good 9.8% in the month of November, while fuel prices, inclusive of the climate change levy, were up 5.3%, largely due to a 14.4% rise in gas prices. Prices of home produced food climbed 3.9%. The latest figures from the inflation front gives little comfort to the central bank and the policymakers. Citing signs of slowing growth, the Bank of England lowered its key interest rate last week for the first time in more than two years. The central bank''s nine-member rate-setting body, the Monetary Policy Committee, or MPC reduced the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.25 percentage points to 5.5%. It was the first rate cut since August 2005. The last overall change in the bank rate was in July this year, when the central bank hiked the rate by 25 basis points to 5.75%.The central bank expects higher energy and food prices to keep inflation above the target in the near term. Higher petrol prices took U.K.''s annual inflation a tad above the central bank target of 2% in October, after holding below the level for three months in a row. Annual inflation rose to 2.1% in October from 1.8% in September. With both the key inflation measures holding strong, analysts say these are likely to serve as deterrents for aggressive monetary policy easing in near term. The MPC will continue to "monitor carefully", the persistent upside risks to inflation, the central bank had stated last week. Further, the bank expects slowing demand growth to help in easing pressures on supply capacity, bringing inflation back to target in the medium term.The MPC had projected in the Inflation Report that the rate will climb above the central bank''s 2% target next year and then retreat to stay near the central bank''s target in 2009. Inflation is expected to pick up in 2008, aided by higher energy and import price inflation. The central bank expects inflation to reach as high as 2.27% next year. As pressures on capacity ease, the rate is projected to return to target in 2009.

Thank you Hils, I promise to be a model student :-)

Leaving that stop in place as the latest 5 min SMA 45 is now being hit.

Interested to hear what anyone would have done on Friday, as I took my position at lunchtime at 2.0321 with a 70 pt stop (which was below the previous congestion of the day), it dropped 50 points or so from there so I was still in the trade and by evening had recovered - I was sure we were on the up but was anxious to leave the trade room to breathe and take shape. As I can't be at the screen all the time I want to leave them all some room, but was a 70 point stop too big - I suppose the answer is that I'm still in the trade and it's profitable so yes, it was right :-)

Seymour,

I wasn't around on Friday although I did look in at about 5:30am before I left home hoping to find a no-brainer cable long, but it was going down at that time so I let it pass by. As it happens, it was pretty close to the low just then but I obviously had no way of knowing that at the time.

There appears to have been a continuation signal to enter long at around 11am, but by lunchtime it was struggling to make higher highs and I'm not really sure why you went long in the first place. If I had just come to the market at that time, I'd have been looking to short it down from there. The next signals to go long didn't materialise until the early evening.

If you do enter the market long based upon a continuation signal on the M1, I really think that the stop should be just under the low before the signal. The 10:55am low looks to have been 2.0301, so that's where I believe your stop should've been.

The idea imo should be to enter the market with a signal on a fast timeframe (eg M1) and to then get that same signal replicating on the slower timeframes (M5, then M15 and so on) so that they keep you in the trade as long as possible.

Thanks Hils, I thought it wasn't a brilliant entry, but when time is limited and work is pressing I still like to take a few trades.

Edit stopped out +115.

Small long Cable

Good trade SC especially at 50 a point!
That should help towards your expensive trip. LOL
TT

You know I was thinking...

...a year ago we have 5- 20 regular traders posting on EACH of 3-4 threads....thats stayed at the top of the board constantly...and each tending to post on their own thread 90% of the time..

Now it feels there are so few of us...that seems like about 10-12 regular posters thats are proping up most of the threads on here....

I am talking about those of us that post several times per day, and are active in discussions.

Feels we are limping into 2008...

Anyone else noticed this...or it is just Crimbo already...

I agree, D. I've also noticed that new posters don't tend to hang around on the pay-per-view for too long.

The Trader's Thread is totally devoid of ideas and inspiration. I've concluded that it's because 90% of the punters on here really don't have a clue what they're doing.

The other thing I've noticed is that the Trader's Thread on the freeview seems to consist entirely of links by Kyoto. Whilst I certainly wouldn't wish to deny Kyoto the right to make those posts, I don't particularly think that they help in encouraging others to post on the thread.

Edit: That post will probably make me a bit unpopular, but I've said it as I see it.

I do have a theory as to why these apparent problems might have come about.

Croc used to be very active in promoting his training courses for wannabe traders and that, in turn, was good for the health of the site and boards. Since his death, there doesn't seem to have been a replacement. Maybe Doris should give the matter some thought.

Just an idea.

Hillary agree with you about David, been on two off his courses,found his posts very inspiring greatly missed.
Not a good day so far long Euro/jpy stopped for -40 Long GDP seems to be going noware must be all waiting for rate decision

Volume levels appear to be about 15% of where they were yesterday across the board. As you say - people staying out ahead of the Fed.

And then what?

Where is debt being stuffed?

The Fed's magic tricks

Hello Hilary. I agree that what David provided in the community hasn't been replaced. Maybe it couldn't. MoneyAM runs the site and in some respects they seem best placed to fill that void if they consider it important - perhaps they don't - perhaps it isn't. But personally I think you're spot on in thinking it was ultimately good for the health of the site.

As for the Traders Thread in the Investors' Room - it was dead when I got there - in fact, as far as I can recall, it's always been dead. A few people thank me from time to time for posting them, so someone is out there reading them even if there's no comment. I know some old hands sitting with their multiple news feeds have got a bit sniffy in the past about the whole news thing but I've said my piece on that before and that's that. Between this and the market reports at the start of the day I'm trying to make a contribution - don't have to do it - but do anyway.

I think David fostered a very positive attitude on the threads, they were friendly and inclusive. The attitudes which are left in his absence aren't always very helpful or pleasant and what do they do to encourage anyone?