Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Hi

I read your stuff with interest - but I'm useless so don't comment

I have been saying for over a year that the was too high - WRONG Have had a short on cable since heaven knows when

At last, I am in profit & right

I have no idea what will happen next and when you read some of the experts they don't know either

I would say, at the moment, the trend on cable is down - but that's until it turns!

I use a site - fx street for analytical reports to try & work out which way things are going

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/

I think most people (& I may be generalising) on here don't know what's going to happen with enopugh confidence to post it?

Maybe I'm wrong? I am not a person to give advice, all I would say is cable seems to be trending down and it probably will change direction but I don't know when

Sorry if that's not more helpful but it is at least honest!

Exactly CC, trends within trends. The long term trend is not your friend IMO. You need to find the short to medium term trend in my opinion and trade that.

You would need deep pockets and nerves of steel to trade with the long term trend.

PS

I'm not having a great day - I have flu, I went to a client meeting yesterday & got a 120 parking fine for parking on a residents bit instead of pay & display (still bought a ticket though!) My super whizzy phone vibrated itself off the kitchen worktop & landed in the dog bowl and is now utterly dead and my super whizzy fridge has died for the 3rd time in 4 weeks & there is a hellish smell in the kitchen.

so forex is low priority!

CC, in general the numbers participating seem to be dropping off sharply and this is just what happens in a bear market. I have tried to discuss on the investors side the situation but no replies. Have to look after oneself cos whoever is left have their own problems.

CC,

I read your posts and I concluded some time ago that I haven't got a clue what you're trying to achieve.

By that, I mean are you looking for trades where you can dive in and out 20 times a day, or just one or two trades a day or something that you can sit on for a few days or even longer and then reap some tasty rewards?

Something else which I happen to think which I believe probably applies to 90% or more of all traders, is that they spend too long looking for tops, bottoms and perfect entries instead of buying markets that are rising and selling markets that are falling. This, I believe, is borne from a fear of losing most probably brought about by the ridiculously low margin requirements that brokers permit.

CC I've also been following your posts with interest as I was in a similar frame of mind to you in November, thinking about chucking CFD's in favour of FX. After posting my thoughts on here at the time, I got a sharp lesson in reality from Hils, 1. any prat could make money in a strong bull market and 2. trading derivatives without TA is madness. This last 2/3 months I've spent intensively studying TA and I've just started trading equity CFD's again with some success. I don't want to put you off FX, but I believe most people would agree that FX is harder than equities. I think that if I had rushed into FX I would have lost a fair bit of money (thanks Hils).
Hope that this is helpful to you knowing how others have dealt with the end of the bull market.

Regarding cable and not knowing where it's going, this is my simple take on the daily chart.



I would suggest that the uptrend from early 2006 (blue line) has now been broken and that it is being restrained within a down trend by the red line. If I were looking for a long term long trade (which I'm not), I wouldn't buy it until the red line next gets broken.

The red stochs line suggests that it's got further to fall. I would expect to see that red line pass below 20% and bounce along the bottom for at least a few months.

Hils,

Could you be a bit more precise about the exact date and value we should go long at?

Thanks ;o)

7th June at 3:43am, Sue.

:o)

That's a Saturday, btw.

Hilary,
If I could find a method which would produce money by sitting in trades for a week I'd do that
If I could find a method on which I just traded once or twice a day and make a profit I'd do that
If I could find a method day-trading which would make a profit I'd do that.

Believe me i've got any number of demo accounts running various strategies.

But right now I can't make any work so I'm trying one for a week or 2, then trying another etc etc. I don't think this is necessarily wrong because i have learnt in the process. Just not learnt enough yet.
I don't think i'm in any different situation really than any newbie trader just floundering around trying to see the big of magic which makes a difference.
Sadly.

CC,

It sounds to me as if you've got information overload from punting around too many ideas.

Can I suggest that you just simplify things and go right back to basics, removing all of your lines and indicators along the way.

Then just pick one instrument. Don't confuse matters by fcuking about with multiple instruments at this stage.

Then just pick one timeframe. Again, don't confuse matters by fcuking about with multiple timeframes at this stage.

Then just pick one indicator. Again, don't confuse matters by fcuking about with multiple indicators at this stage. That indicator could be a pair of MA's (slow sma, faster ema) or MACD (Chocopops Magic Settings are good) or some stochs settings.

Then every time that your chosen indicator says buy, you buy without any fcuking about whatsoever. And every time that your chosen indicator says sell, you sell without any fcuking about whatsoever. Even if your entry subsequently transpires to have been cr@p. Even if you lose money on the trade, that's not important. You will also have winners and the aim is that the winners outweigh the losers. Don't think about whether or not to press the button, because that's dangerous. Just press the buttons and strip out the emotions. Don't panic into offloading winning positions, just run them until your chosen indicator says reverse.

Work on that, and report on here how you're doing.

I've been pressing the buttons unthinkingly with success...... now it's just dawned on me, it was my brain holding me back :>)

Try reading "Way of the Turtle" by Curtis Faith CC , may give you a few ideas.

CC, I know nothing about FX but from years of reading these boards I've found that the success of traders is in inverse relation to the amount of time they spend trying to understand the market and/or have a view of it. The market is basically irrational and the more you try to understand it, the less you will actually do so. Any understanding you do get will be because the market is behaving in a particular way for an extended period (e.g. a trending market) and therefore certain strategies will work for a period. When the market stops behaving in that way and they stop working of course you will be snookered unless you realise pretty pronto.

Dead Cat Bounce's experiences as related on an AFN thread some years ago ("Why I'm giving up daytrading") pretty much covers the issue.

You have posted a number of times your view on the market or market events, e.g. what will happen to interest rates at the committee meetings. That is just gambling of course, you have no way of knowing and it won't help your trading to guess.

Much better just to sit down in the morning and see whether people are buying or selling, and jump on the bandwagon. If it isn't clear whether they are buying or selling, either look at another market or do something else for an hour or two and look again.

TA and fundamentals do both have a use, but there is no point in using them to guess what the market should be doing when it isn't doing that.

I had 45 mins late Monday afternoon and made 11 pips from 2 trades (both trades were open a couple of minutes max). I did 2 trades late last night in 45 mins and made +2, that's one per trade, each trade open or about 10 mins!!. Too busy today but given that a £20k trade uses £150 margin I'm going for short term only. Still push the button when my mind says rather than my indicators but getting better, but last week was lousy for me, still struggling when I thought it was going so well. Anyway, plodding on :-)

hils thanks

Could you clarify the value of cable on the 7th June - just in case it hits that value earlier

Many thanks

;o)

Joking aside - I am sitting on a profit making cable short and have no idea when I should close it - my issue is that I am about to start a new contarct so can't keep an eye on things.

Not for Hils - just a general point regarding Fx v CFD's on shares / indices - I disagree - you couldn't have a FX going to zero but a share can.

Equity CFD's or anything else, the moment they go wrong - dump 'em

Sue,

I've got no idea whatsoever when you should close your cable short nor at what price. It's clearly still coming down on the daily charts though and, as you've had it open for some weeks now and are comfortable with it, I would continue to leave it open for now.

Personally, I would close it either when you see a ma crossover of the MACD coupled with a turn up or when the dotted raw stochs line passes up through its red ma.

I wouldn't buy it, however, until it breaks up through the falling thick red line and, instead, would continue to trade it short.

morning all. 11 o'clock and Pipex still haven't fixed my broadband after last night's gales so stuck with a oh so slow 56k modem.

mnay thanks for all the encouragement.

To Plateman I can assure you my reasons for trading fx are nothing to do with the end of the bull market. I won't go into a long explanation here but it's to do with the lack of available liquidity on stocks from about 30th on the ftse down to the ones nearer the bottom of the ftse100. I never could trade the really big caps and my system cannot be adapted for it. Bull bear or sideways market it really didn't matter to me.

To Dil. I will buy the turtles book.

To Hilary. I will do as suggested and will enjoy the no fcking about rule. I have chosen eurjpy, am trading off the macd and will use M1 as anything higher than this and I might not get any signals some days. I will start after the rate decision as i've lost so much of the morning now and anyways I don't suppose I can run more than about 1 chart on a 56k modem. lol.