niceonecyril
- 04 Apr 2009 08:30
niceonecyril
- 25 Mar 2010 09:01
- 921 of 3666
Great news,little chamce of dilution,allows Afr to go for it.
cyril
blanche
- 25 Mar 2010 09:13
- 922 of 3666
Think we will get some very good news here Monday. Should see us to new highs for the year. 1.10 plus imvho next week.
mitzy
- 25 Mar 2010 09:18
- 923 of 3666
This is great 200p by xmas.
HARRYCAT
- 25 Mar 2010 09:27
- 924 of 3666
niceonecyril, I agree with that up to a point, but each time they draw down on the debt facility, the sp will be hit, though to a lesser degree than if there was a cash call. This way at least they know the cash is there, rather than having to go cap in hand to investors, but that is still a great deal of debt (if taken) repayable every 6 months at 5% over the inter-bank rate.
Balerboy
- 25 Mar 2010 09:27
- 925 of 3666
mitzy...what ever your on......i want some!! lol
niceonecyril
- 25 Mar 2010 09:44
- 926 of 3666
Harry,however one looks at it the pipeline expenxes have to be met and fund rasing is the function of the market. For AFR to be able to draw on the higher figure would mean that Ebok is a great success,so i see only positives from todays annoucement.Those who are lending wil imo "know"what's going on at Ebok,it's as
you mentioned a very large amount if miney.
cyril
required field
- 25 Mar 2010 09:55
- 927 of 3666
With production somewhere between 50000 to 100000 barrels per day coming : the debt is very easily managed.
cynic
- 25 Mar 2010 09:58
- 928 of 3666
i seriously like this stock, and am happy to have a slightly o'weight position even at my "in" price
required field
- 25 Mar 2010 09:59
- 929 of 3666
Ditto
blanche
- 25 Mar 2010 09:59
- 930 of 3666
To get the 450 mil. I think you will see bigger news on monday.
niceonecyril
- 25 Mar 2010 10:10
- 931 of 3666
blanche,agreed,to get this much finance on the present market is a hugh + also better to raise funds from a position of strength.
Dog walkie time beckons.
cyril
mitzy
- 25 Mar 2010 10:38
- 932 of 3666
I'm on Petro Matad mostly Balerboy.
HARRYCAT
- 25 Mar 2010 11:02
- 933 of 3666
For those of you who have the time & inclination to read lengthy articles, this one is from last week's Shares Mag, by Tom Sieber:
"West-African based oil and gas company Afren (AFR) moved from Aim to the Main Market in December last year and will be reshuffled into the FTSE 250 index next week (Mar 22), after missing out during the shake-up in the FTSE before Christmas.
This should lead to some demand for the stock as investment funds move to attain the proper weighting. Investors should buy ahead of this technical boost with other potential short-term catalysts in the offing and the underlying story continuing to improve.
These catalysts include confirmation of an additional debt facility, to support a significant 2010 capital expenditure (capex) commitment, and an independent audit verifying the level of reserves on the 840 million market caps core Ebok field in Nigeria. The latter is likely to be unveiled when the group announces its full year numbers at the end of the month (29 Mar).
The shares fell 13% in the wake of a last months (2 Feb) operational update, amid market frustration at delays in first output from Ebok, which has been put back from May to October this year, and concern about the potential for another fund raising. The decline could also be attributed profit-taking after last years excellent run, which saw the shares gain 227% a rise we anticipated in our Griller on the company last year (Shares, 29 Jan 09). The price has recovered since the beginning of this month to 94.5p and is up 8% so far in 2009.
The deferment at Ebok is a result of appraisal drilling last year which encouraged the company to reprioritise the development of the field. More encouragingly still, this drilling also led Afren to increase its own reserves estimate on the field from 153 million barrels of oil to 209 million barrels. In addition the year-end production target of 35,000 barrels of oil per day remains unchanged.
The group, which also has assets in Ce dIvoire, Ghana, Gabon and Congo, does face a challenge in terms of funding the development of Ebok, and has increased its planned capital expenditure for this year to $430 million. Afren is in advanced discussions to secure an additional banking facility of $300 million which would provide it with further financial flexibility. In addition, broker Evolution Securities estimates an oil price of $70 a barrel across 2010 will mean cash in of $640 million against cash out of $580 million.
Afren is also drilling two potentially high impact exploration wells in 2010 Ebok Deep, which is expected in the first half of this year and OML 115.
Further out the scale of the opportunity is clear. The group has excellent relationships in Nigeria - its former chairman is the main advisor on petroleum to the Nigerian government - and last June the company created a subsidiary there which will negate the need to form partnerships with other indigenous companies to acquire assets in the country. This will enable it to take material interests in some substantial oil and gas assets in the country and benefit from fiscal terms specific to marginal fields.
Prior to the launch of First Hydrocarbon Nigeria the firm had to partner with a local firm in order to benefit from more generous terms, which see a profits tax of 55% to 60% and no cap on the oil price compared with the more typical 80% tax rate and oil price cap.
First Hydrocarbon has been established with the support of two leading financial institutions in Nigeria First City Monument Bank and Guaranty Trust Bank and with 170 discovered but undeveloped fields in Nigeria, holding an estimated 3.5 billion to four billion barrels of oil or equivalent, there is plenty for Afren to go after."
jimmy b
- 25 Mar 2010 11:30
- 934 of 3666
Thanks for posting that HARRY ..
niceonecyril
- 25 Mar 2010 13:03
- 935 of 3666
Thanks Harry,taking the 35kbopd at $80bo then roughly 1.8m making well over 600m a year revenue. With 209m P2 reserves thats a well life of over 17 years,
just for the present Ebok (not including the deeps)discovery.I think Monday will make for some very interesting reading,so here's to Monday?
cyril
blanche
- 25 Mar 2010 16:42
- 936 of 3666
1.04 finish. Don`t know about you people but i think a Whoopee! is in order. And roll on tomorrow.
ellio
- 25 Mar 2010 16:59
- 937 of 3666
Looks like 120 if the results are good and maybe a massive over spike to 150 is not out of the question medium term, that's a lot of money backing these guys, either they've got a great salesman or the prospects are incredible. One would hope there is something in the background to tempt this financial backing.
required field
- 25 Mar 2010 17:11
- 938 of 3666
It's going to have production like Tullow Oil by the end of the year...there's no doubt that with oil holding the $80 mark that this is undervalued on nearterm earnings.....the sp has got to go higher !.
cynic
- 25 Mar 2010 17:24
- 939 of 3666
+/-$80 is certainly the (new) natural level for crude
mitzy
- 25 Mar 2010 18:05
- 940 of 3666
and $100 plus in 2 months time dont forget..