how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

Still creeping up.

Still long the Jan future.
You're right zarif, there has to be a correction but I'm hanging on for the ride.

whats makes you think there will be a correction?

One year dow chart. Today is the day of the witches -quadruple withching i believe -beware of the broomsticks. Do you reckon it is going to correct itself today as cant keep going up indefinitely? I think the witching hour of the Ym is the kast hour of trading. rgds zarif

Tazzo1
I think its due a correction as the market is overbought and if u look at the big picture the deficit is in billions,the BOJ/MOF are financing the deficit by artificially holding up the dollar which has quite frankly become a mickey mouse currency at present being pasted by the Euro,cable (gbp)etc.
Also if u look at the historical charts of the dow u will see that whenever it has reached the 10250 area there have been massive volatility and the downward swings have been massive.
And if u have noticed lately even with good news (last few months) the market has been reluctant to move up. So in a nut shell they have been buying on the rumour and it is getting near time to sell on the fact.

The old market adage of 'The market can go higher than you think it can, and lower than you think it should' certainly applies here...

rgds
zarif

What are your views for today?

http://217.34.0.179/DOW10250.png


Tazoi:
Charts to show the 10250 level and the swings. I hope it makes sense.

rgds
zarif

Levels to watch for today 19th dec2003

rgds

zarif

DJI History(DJI)

Data for 18/12/2003

This Chart is updated and posted on the link by Snoball everday and the link for it is at the top of the header and i hope that u are using it as he spends a lot of his time and effort to do this and i think we must all thank him for his relentless work that he does without any reward.

Bravo to snoball. Keep up the good work. Indebted to you -zarif

Yes - excellent - quite a lot to take in..........

thanks Zarif for that explanation.

I too think its overbought but I do not have the knowledge of TA.I am just going on gut feeling. Am new to this.


Tariq

tazz01,
there are always corrections. When and where ain't so easy to predict, even with TA.

lol, zarif, thanks for the plaudits. But I did get rewarded this time. Closed my Jan future for 332 points today as I just can't stand the suspense any longer and have succombed to the greed at last. I'll be looking for another opportunity but with a bigger stake next time.

any ideas what to expect next week? I think I may give it a rest till after the holiday.

little woman. Should I simplify the chart? I've tried to put all the elements of my system in without any extraneous stuff. Any suggestions are most welcome.

snoball - great result - well done

Tariq - in this game (you have to play the financial markets as a game)there is no gurus or experts (even the so called best have an average rate of 70% being right -you already have 50% chance -so u r not doing badly at all)Just develop a strategy (keep re-evaluating it, identify yourself as to what category of a player u are (eg-high risk/low risk,long term,short term etc).Follow the rules:
Never ever forget the stop loss.
Take small a small loss or it is an invitation for a bigger one.
Lock in profits.
Trend is your friend.
Avoid market noise.All the info u hear is not necessary right all the time so called experts on the box are only showing their position -eg if they are heavily bought sold etc-they will only sing their song.
Markets are unpredictable -never preempt as to how high or low it can go -infact it can do anything.
Dont risk the whole pot.
Dont go for the bigger kill -take small gains and they will biuld up.
hope this helps.
zarif

Snoball -Welldone its great when things go to plan and pays to stick to strategy.Emotion as you say greed and fear are the main culprits in this game.
Its a tough call to exit a profitable trade and even a tougher when to bear the losses from a bad position.
In your case i dont think it was greed but better to take a good profit that u r happy with.
Bigger stakes i dont entirely agree to put them on straight away on a position more wiser to add to a winning position using a pyramid effect as the increases would be smaller and losses smaller as the market can change anytime -but then again its me "teaching a granny to suck eggs"in your case.

rgds
zarif

Remember guys/gals the Ym witching hour is the last hour of trading -so be prepared for the unexpected. on the other hand nothing dramatic may happen.

rgds
zarif

Thanks Zarif for those words of advice.Very much appreiated.
Have a good weekend


Tariq

I've simplified the chart in the header link and added an explanation.

snoball, the chart looks good and I think I understand it!

Will just have to see what unfolds over the next couple of weeks and actually put it into practice! The US is open more than the UK (not as many holidays!) over the next 2 weeks so it should be interesting.

I also understand that traditionally individuals invest more cash between now and the new year rather than spend it! So although the fund managers may take profits - and I wonder if they bed & breakfast as we used to before the 30 day rule came in, the money may just get reinvested straight away keeping the market high. Of course the individual investor could be doing the same, and in the end up buying more! These could be contributing factors of why thier market is still so high in comparison to the UK

good point about the holidays lw.
does anybody know when New York is closed over the holiday period?

edit: here's a calendar