ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

You as well eric, I hope your wife has a speedy recovery pal. Wish her well from the LEGEND!!!

Merry Xmas to everyone else too.

Just like to wish everybody i big merry christmas! great thread with plenty of good posts... Happy christmas and here's to a profitable new year! ho ho ho

ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

The portfolio remains unhappy and not really in the festive spirit - legend excepted. It is looking back time before forward looking as we approach the New Year. The main thing that strikes me about a set of shares which on the whole has performed pretty well over the year is that the problem with the portfolio has been timing (surprise! surprise!). Good money could have been made with pretty well all the shares - several being sold and bought back later. Only BNH and ASC have been consistent holds and ASC is off the best prices, probably temporarily.

company_________ EPC pp(p) issue-m shares price value cap-m gain % gain-wk

Broker Network H BNH 77.50 15.065_ 6450__ 136.5 8804_ 20.56 76.13_ 7.91
ASOS____________ ASC 56.00 67.97__ 8900__ 78___ 6942_ 53.02 39.29_ -7.69
Stanelco________ SEO 4.50_ 782.225 111000 5.375 5966_ 42.04 19.44_ -10.42
Civilian Content CCN 16.25 41.883_ 30700_ 15___ 4605_ 6.28_ -7.69_ -6.25
Sterling Energy_ SEY 17.25 822.712 29000_ 15.75 4568_ 129.58 -8.70 0.00
Marchpole Hold._ MPH 33.75 120.445 14800_ 27.75 4107_ 33.42 -17.78 -0.89
Cybit Holdings__ CYH 91.00 19.779_ 5500__ 72.5_ 3988_ 14.34 -20.33 3.57
Yoomedia________ YOO 22.00 499.9__ 22700_ 17___ 3859_ 84.98 -22.73 -13.92
Petroceltic Intl PCI 15.00 484.975 33300_ 8.5__ 2831_ 41.22 -43.33 -2.86
Petrel Resources PET 124.50 58.625 4000__ 61___ 2440_ 35.76 -51.00 43.53
CFA Capital Gp._ CFP 0.70_ 619____ 714000 0.3__ 2142_ 1.86_ -57.14 -33.33

totals_________________________________________ 50251______ -8.63

Lets start at the wrong end. Profit warning from CFP with resignation of Chairman and another director who have sold their shares. CFP is effectively a start-up with a market of start-ups in the AIM market. Not perhaps surprising if a number of contracts have not been fulfilled. A real buy opportunity but that's for next week (or see my recent contribution to bb).

PET is performer of the week after last week's disaster. The bullish holders who had sold are back in! PET are back in on a short-list of three for one of the Iraqi contracts. Quite difficult to read but, again, I am positive for the share - again see my contribution at end of PET bb.

PCI is looking much less happy with nothing appearing to be happening - from the investors standpoint! A positive statement re drilling programmes doesn't seem to have affected the SEY price, perhaps because so close to Christmas.

The problem with YOO is that the market suddenly has far more shares because of the placing, etc., connected with the takeovers. Expect an Evolution statement in the New Year to get the share moving again.

CYH price appears to have rocketed but, I'm afraid, it is a one for 50 exchange! Amusing to see the reaction that the price is less likely to double at the higher price! I see the move as positive because evidently driven by the institutions who do not like penny shares.

MPH and CCN have been quiet with not even a contribution on the respective boards. SEO has been more active with recent negative news on the legal case, offset by bullish noises on the ASDA trials and promise of more good news.

BNH is the hero of the portfolio and threatening to walk away with the prize! Very well placed in its market on the back of threatening legislation for the independent accountantantcy firm.

Appropriate to close on good old (or young) ASC. Not a particularly good week, partly caused by a negative comment in the Telegraph - but evidently he posted a SELL recommendation at 37p so what does he know? Probably also closing of bull positions for the festive season. More important is the continuous flow of positive comment in the media, contrasting the fortunes of the internet traders with the high st fashion shop.

2 hrs 25 mins to Christmas, although 10+ hours over here, so no doubt everyone is partying away. Snow forecast for tomorrow! Happy Christmas to everyone!

Eric

Does anyone know if there is going to be a trading update after Christmas and new year???

seadog dont know date,last year was 16 jan

WOODIE, Thank you

SEADOG

ASC has been pretty consistent at updating re trading news. Expectations are quite high re results so I am looking for some bullish comments re 1st quarter. Good at dripping out news. Have comments to make re chart but will make them in the weekly ASC Challenge portfolio report which I will probably produce in the withching hour (your time) of the night! Spookie insights!

Eric

ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

The portfolio has ended the year in negative territory with a near 10% loss. If the portfolio had been bought on 1st January, however, it would have been some 190% up! The greater part would have been ASC but MPH and PCI would also have doubled with CCN, PET and SEY not far behind. What a lesson re the timing of investments! I have been doing a bit of study on Technical Analysis whilst away and can't resist the temptation to air a bit of knowledge (a dangerous thing) if only to draw some real insights from our chartists. The cahrts for the last eyar make interesting viewing.

company_________ EPC pp(p) issue-m shares price value cap-m gain % gain-yr

Broker Network H BNH 77.50 15.065_ 6450__ 138.5 8933_ 20.87 78.71_ 77.6
ASOS____________ ASC 56.00 67.97__ 8900__ 78.5_ 6987_ 53.36 40.18_ 1470.0
Stanelco________ SEO 4.50_ 782.225 111000 5.375 5966_ 42.04 19.44_ -4.0
Civilian Content CCN 16.25 41.883_ 30700_ 14.5_ 4452_ 6.07_ -10.77 95.9
Sterling Energy_ SEY 17.25 822.712 29000_ 15.25 4423_ 125.5 -11.59 46.6
Marchpole Hold._ MPH 33.75 120.445 14800_ 29.25 4329_ 35.23 -13.33 192.5
Cybit Holdings__ CYH 91.00 19.779_ 5500__ 73___ 4015_ 14.44 -19.78 -18.9
Yoomedia________ YOO 22.00 499.9__ 22700_ 17___ 3859_ 84.98 -22.73 -68.4
Petroceltic Intl PCI 15.00 484.975 33300_ 8____ 2664_ 38.8_ -46.67 100.0
CFA Capital Gp._ CFP 0.70_ 619____ 714000 0.33_ 2356_ 2.04_ -52.86 17.9
Petrel Resources PET 124.5 58.625_ 4000__ 48___ 1920_ 28.14 -61.45 71.4

totals_________________________________________ 49903______ -9.27_ 180

There are only two holdings ending the year on a positive trend line:

(1) ASC. Seems a fascinating chart as it appears to be repeating the pattern of July to October a quarter later. Then there was a converging triangle which was broken by the sp going N in mid-Oct, ahead of the results.. The triangle is being replicated and we are again approaching 2-3rds point. However, I'm not sure the indicators are as positive this time. My view is that it depends on the Jan. trading news. My expecctation is that the price will break higher in advance of the news, achieve a new high; if the news is better than expected, the sp could move decisively into new territory. Views?

(2) BNH. Much lower volumes so not really disposed to technical analysis to same degree. Is there a danger of a double top which could be reversal sign? On balance not because indicators seem to be all positve.

Each of the other charts have quite surprising similarities in pattern with a particularly strong period of trading establishing a potential resistance level and then the sp then receding to a support level or to a trend line.

(3) SEO has baulked at a resistance level four times over the year at around 6.5p and tested a support level at 4p. As with ASC there is a pattern repetition with a quarters delay. If the current reaction does not test the support level, I suspect this could be a buying point and the resistance level could be broken on positive progress with trials, particularly ASDA.

(4) MPH appears to have a clear upward trend line although the reaction to Oct. peak seemed to break the supporting trendline. The legal worries would explain that and the indicators look positve, suggesting that a new high will be attained in the first quarter.

(5) CCN broke out of a horizontal trading box in Sept. Again, the resulting reaction has not tested old support levels, suggesting potential for new highs when news is restored.

(6) SEY. Chart shows a positive long-term trend which is unbroken by recent fall. Likely that a new support level is established at 15p and that the upper trend line could be breached during 2005. Plenty of positive drilling news likely during 2005.

(7) PET. Even a volatile share like PET appears to have a support level at around 30p and there is a slight long-term trend line - this time the boun ce was off 35p. No doubt, plenty of excitement and hype again in 2005.

(8) PCI. Least convinciong of the oils, possibly, but the price did double in 2004. A support level at 8p but is there the drilling activity to encourage another surge off that level?

(9) YOO. The falling share price hides a significant increase in cap. following the recent share placing much to the chagring of holders. Clear support at 17p. Presumably the increase in volume is a pointer to a rising trend on continued progress.

(10) CFP. Returned to the support level of 0.3p. Looks like a head and shoulders so that recent fall might have been predicted. Rise in 2004 on rumour so needs solid good news to repeat the pattern in 2005. My money is on it!

(11) CYH. Black mark for MoneyAM who have messed up the charts by not taking account of the 1 for 50 issue. Little action in 2004 and I suspect a lot to play for in 2005.

Over to you johngtudor and others who might add a bit more substance to my first analytical attempts. Have a happy and profitable trading New Year, friends.

Eric

Eric,
Have had the box switched off over New Year, thanks for the info.

ASOS reading accurate, but second triangle much shorter than first so I think price will move imminently in the new year dependant on news.

BNH I don't think a double top as my moving averages and indicators say the S T trend will continue.

All IMHO.

Hope the skiing is going well and your wife fully recovered. SD

Any ideas as to why the 2p drop today?

Thanks

I take it that I am the only one concerned about the above average drop today. Poor Trading results perhaps.

not much interest-waiting for a trading update perhaps to fire people up again! I'm keeping mine definitely not poor trading. INMHO.!

Thanks moneyplus.

Looking forward to some exciting trading figures, check out the link attached. http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?&range=1y&size=medium&compare_sites=&y=r&url=www.asos.com#top

Looks like asos went into overdrive around October and peaked just before Christmas with over 250 million hits. Things seem to have setteled down back to normality with average hits per day standing at 170 million, 70 million up on last year.
Although people visiting a site does not automatically transfer into sales, i think it does give a good indication of asos's extra reach and its growing popularity.

this is a buying moment while it lasts,down to support level at 70p risk reward to good to miss if it closes below 70p sell.cheers woodie

WOODIE

Very helpful graphs. Certainly seems to support potential doubling of sales in fourth quarter. What is also encouraging is that the sales growth in first half at some 85% is much higher than would be indicated by a comparison of hits to 2003, suggesting that the conversion rate has improved and/or the value of sales has increased. The latter was indicated in theb interims, I thing, with some credit being given to the additional buyers. I accept that a break below 70p would be a negative signal - but this would only seem credible if, in fact, trading is below expectations; the chart suggests optherwise.

Eric

Whilst a direct comparison cannot be made, IDS are imo a comparable company to ASC and they have put out a cracking Christmas trading statement today.
This should bode well for ASOS.

capa

eric this was intended for short term traders,risk reward at this stop loss is to great to miss have taken out fresh spread bet,with this in mind still holding my long term shares from a year ago. what would have been nice for the co to have done was to release the date of trading update.cheers woodie

capa

Helpful post on IDS. Figures are impressive with first decent profit projected of 4m. However, sales year on year are just up 50% whereas it looks as if ASC will be mrope like 100%. Cap. of two companies is similar which may be justified on larger turnover of IDS. Indicators very positive for IDS which must be viewed as a buy. It will be interesting how sp performance compares going forward. The results from NEXT are pretty dreadful. 2% up at retail shops over Christmas - I wonder why?

WOODIE

Worth looking at IDS to give confidence in actions taken. Thinking of adding to my ASC CFDs at this level. I suspect it bottomed out earlier today as price is recovering on reasonable volume. I suspect the 2 100k transactions were buys delayed an hour. Helpful to differentaite your long-term and short-term trading strategy.

Eric

eric thanks my short term play is for these figs to be released,spread bet is for march there should be no fresh news after the release of trading statement from co unless take over approach.long term i will hold until at least the end of the year what i got to work out is when the growth is going to slow down trying to guess this in advance is what selling at the right or wrong time is all about.cheers woodie