overgrowth
- 06 Oct 2003 22:47
David10B
- 30 May 2007 12:26
- 941 of 2037
Well said Mt Holden well said, its nice to realise that COH shareholders are blinded to learning anything.
Thats why they were in a state of shock when the price fell, while I was content that it was simply following my predictions.
The day gets better.
David10B
- 30 May 2007 12:41
- 942 of 2037
You really should all note that the only research that I follow is for value, plain simple, old fashioned intrinsic asset backed value.
Modern day anacronyms and their application mean nothing, absolutly nothing to me.
proteus
- 30 May 2007 13:09
- 943 of 2037
As far as I remember due to writing off goodwill VOD has not made a profit at one level.You're saying therefore they're worthless.You really need some help ,why don't you ask as a teacher you should know that.Now how about justifying your 0.66p value for the benefit of the readers.
David10B
- 30 May 2007 13:20
- 944 of 2037
Yes but thats my point, how do put a hard cash value on good will?
Clearly goodwill is one of the most manipulative intangibles in the whole accounting process.
You must have a good earnings yield and this is where I use the ratio of a pre tax operating earnings, or as you would say EBIT to the whole enterprise value which of couse is the SP. I prefer using this ratio to the P/E as that can be manupulated at will.
To me its all rather a simple exercise to find out how much the business is actual worth, ie how much it really earnt in hard nett, relative to the purchase price of the business.
It gets a little more deeper if you wish to delve further. But basically ask your self what did the COH shareholders pay for the business and what return on capital employed are they getting today?---its not a pretty answer using my valuation methods.
But I am not here to gamble,and with the current "flexible" accounting rules and a stagnant FSA, you really need a very shap pencil, if you are of course playing to win.
If you are a gambler then of course that moves the goalposts.
proteus
- 30 May 2007 14:00
- 945 of 2037
OK,what's it worth with figures if it's a simple exercise why are you so shy in producing them ?
David10B
- 30 May 2007 14:05
- 946 of 2037
I thought I had.
99% of the Numis guestimate, and thats being kind as there is no tangible asset backing.
COH is currently valued on its forward sales projections and no one here is prepared to take into consideration declining revenues, despite increasing accounts of the impending competition.
proteus
- 30 May 2007 14:13
- 947 of 2037
Perhaps you can point to the declining revenues.The latest statement shows LFL growth of 28%.A quick look at VOD shows an EBIT loss of 2.4 bn last year and 14.9 bn the year before.By your logic they're worthless. Did you teach economics I guess not.If that's your logic you shouldn't be risking teachers money on shares.If you're working from flawed analysis you could end up in something like BKE.So is your .66p a complete guess or does it have some figures behind it ?
bmw325
- 30 May 2007 14:28
- 948 of 2037
proteus
I like the reference to BKE...LOL.
David10B
- 30 May 2007 14:32
- 949 of 2037
Kindly read what I say. I did not say there were declining revenues.
What I said was that the prospective LFL sales are on the increase and are the current allbeit flawed basis for the present valuation,
What I clearly said was none that here are considering, or even prepared to consider the impending flow of the new round of competition which will obviously dilute COH's revenue.
You are right on one thing though, I certainly believe that they are worthless for my investment requirements and perhaps that is why EMPIK dumped them.
Who knows?
What I do know is that there is better and safer value elsewhere.
Meanwhile you can play all you like with the figures that COH have provided, without a basis in nett profit they too are worthless, for me at least.
bmw325
- 30 May 2007 14:52
- 950 of 2037
MLR down again today...never mind eh.
David10B
- 30 May 2007 15:07
- 951 of 2037
No Sir not in the least its a long term punt, been in since under 7p.
CAN ONLY GO WAY BUT AS YOU KNOW THAT IS NEVER IN A STRAIGHT LINE.
Do yourself a favour old boy, and have a punt you wont regret it.
But then that said, BPK is nicely up from the low 500s.
Thats the Pharma game for you
bmw325
- 30 May 2007 15:33
- 952 of 2037
MLR dropping like a stone now...LOLOLOLOLOL.
7p here we come...LOLOLOLOL
proteus
- 30 May 2007 16:32
- 953 of 2037
Post 946 at 2.00pm declining revenues ! 949 2.30 I did not say declining revenues.Also perhaps you should ring the big institutions and tell them VOD is worthless as it has a negative EBIT you could be a hero to all pension fund holders.
Oh dear you didn't invest in BKE did you,didn't you see that they never had a positive EBIT since 2002.Or is EBIT not important,who knows.
bmw325
- 30 May 2007 16:46
- 954 of 2037
proteus
He lost a packet on BKE...and has never been able to come to terms with it.
proteus
- 30 May 2007 17:02
- 955 of 2037
That explains his problem.He shouldn't gamble on things he doesn't understand.
bmw325
- 30 May 2007 17:22
- 956 of 2037
He also has a very bad drink problem which has befuddled his brain and has led to some very bad decisions, the greatest of which was jumping from COH when it was 18p
AdieH
- 30 May 2007 17:30
- 957 of 2037
Squelch him it works, he will get bored and hopefully disappear to p... others off... he knows nothing such squelch him... Regards.
bmw325
- 30 May 2007 17:35
- 958 of 2037
.
bmw325
- 30 May 2007 17:37
- 959 of 2037
AdiehH
Unfortunately this madman will not go unless money am somehow ban him.
Fortunately most punters on all the BB's know that he is a nutter.
AdieH
- 30 May 2007 17:52
- 960 of 2037
I have sent an email to IanT asking for him to be investigated and then spoken to, i've still not had a reply, will chase again to see what they say... Would suggest we either set up a new thread and all squelch him or maybe go over to www.iii.co.uk (i'm gooner) as its a much better thread as he is banned from there. Regards.