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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

ptholden - 14 Apr 2008 15:32 - 9681 of 11056

Double click on the line Hils and three little icons appear on the line itself

FreemanFox - 14 Apr 2008 15:44 - 9682 of 11056

Beat me to it PT.

Hils, I've checked my trendline anchor points and mine are 1 pip higher than yours at those same points. 2.0397 and 2.0192 that will make our wotsits slightly different.

I notice the times on your chart though must be BST whereas mine are 1 hour advanced from that. My MT4 is downloaded from Alpari UK and server is mh. Where have you downloaded yours from to manage to get the correct UK times?

hilary - 14 Apr 2008 15:46 - 9683 of 11056

Oh yes, so they do. Ta pth.

hilary - 14 Apr 2008 15:48 - 9684 of 11056

You've got me confused now, FF, as I'm with ODL and they are on GMT.

FreemanFox - 14 Apr 2008 16:03 - 9685 of 11056

Now I'm confused Hils.

Reason I came to conclusion your on BST is this. My MT4 charts always show 1 hour in advance of the current UK time. Thus they are now showing 17:00 even though we are really 16:00 BST.

On the previous image you put up of the trendline parameters, one of your points was 2008.03.14 14:30, price 2.0396. My equivalent chart point was showing as 15:30, 2.0397. As I know my times on my charts are out by an hour I concluded that yours must be showing the correct times, hence my thinking yours must be BST.

hilary - 14 Apr 2008 16:11 - 9686 of 11056

I've also got Alpari installed, FF, for those "Condor" moments when ODL are down.

It appears that on Sunday evenings Alpari charts seem to restart at 11pm whereas ODL charts restart at 10pm. All of the "missing" price bars over the course of a few weeks must affect the angle of the dangle.

FreemanFox - 14 Apr 2008 16:22 - 9687 of 11056

Yes it will.

Also the fact that FX prices are different depending on which exchange your broker gets prices from will also have an impact. Particularly, if the price differences are at an extrame point where trendlines are drawn from.

As we have found we are 1 pip difference on 2 of our trendline points and this will have an effect on things as well. However, they will not be dramatically different and unless someone is using longer term trend lines to scalp off it shouldn't really be of too much concern.

chocolat - 14 Apr 2008 21:57 - 9688 of 11056

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar strengthened versus its rivals in small tides Monday - growing on robust retail sales data and suggestions of German frustration with the euro, and ebbing with financial sector weakness.

But at the end of the day, it was very close to its late session levels from the close of last week, as currency traders brushed off any lasting impact from the hotly anticipated beefed-up communique on foreign exchange markets from the Group of Seven meeting of central bankers and finance ministers in Washington Friday.

"In my view nothing has changed. We're right back to where we started Friday," said Mark Frey, head foreign exchange trader at Custom House in Victoria, B.C., Canada.

Late Monday in New York, the euro was at $1.5811 from $1.5826 late Friday, while the dollar was at Y101.04 from Y100.87. The euro was at Y159.76 from Y159.65, according to EBS. The U.K. pound was at $1.9761 from $1.9716 late Friday, and the dollar was at CHF1.0005 from CHF1.0002.

The G7 statement offered the first substantive wording change on foreign exchange markets in four years, but failed to detail any commitment to act among the leading industrialized nations. Any market expectations that new language would translate to renewed dollar strength were quickly disappointed. After an initial bounce at the start of the Asian trading session Monday, the dollar completely reversed course versus the euro within about 12 hours. By the time the New York session got underway, the single currency was back within half a cent of its record high - $1.5915, struck last Thursday.

"The trend remains dollar weakness," said Adam Boyton, currency strategist at Deutsche Bank in New York.

The consensus is the G7's words are only words - and weak ones at that.

"Since our last meeting, there have been at times sharp fluctuations in major currencies, and we are concerned about their possible implications for economic and financial stability," the statement said.

The communique excluded its long-running statement that "exchange rates should reflect fundamentals."

"(The G7 leaders) seem to accept that a weaker dollar is inevitable given the Federal Reserve is slashing rates and the U.S. is in recession," said Tom Levinson, a foreign exchange strategist at ING Wholesale Banking in London, echoing the sentiment of several analysts. "It still seems only a matter of time before (the euro) trades at $1.60."

To boot, "there is no suggestion in the G7 communique that current levels do not reflect fundamentals," said David Gilmore, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Essex, Conn.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson seemed to indicate that the new G7 language is more a product of changing times than the inclinations of policymakers.

Paulson told reporters after the meeting Friday that "if you never changed a communique language no matter what happened around the world, it would be pretty meaningless."

"This communique reflects market developments and changes in the markets," he said.

"(The) point is that developments in currency pairs such as (the euro versus the dollar) are fundamentally based and as such, monetary officials are unlikely to take action to counter those movements," said Robert Lynch, currency strategist at HSBC in New York.

The European Central Bank, the key ally for any intervention to curb the dollar's depreciation versus the euro, has explicitly refused taking any steps that would be necessary for intervention to be successful - namely, a rate cut.

Indeed, words from ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch proved perhaps more meaningful than the G7's Monday. The euro strengthened versus the dollar after Bloomberg reported an interview in which Mersch said there is no scope for an interest rate cut in the euro zone this year, as the ECB may need to revise up its inflation outlook.

But ongoing market uncertainty ahead of key banking sector earnings reports this week kept markets irresolute. Already Monday, Wachovia announced a first-quarter loss and plans to sell more stock to shore up its capital levels. The risk aversion may relive the the lower-yielding dollar, as investors exit riskier, higher-yielding assets.

The euro gains versus the greenback also ebbed Monday after a surprising turn in March U.S. retail sales, which increased by 0.2% - versus an expected 0.1% decline - from a 0.1% drop in February, the Commerce Department said Monday.

Comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel may have weighed down the euro against the buck too, said Boyton of Deutsche Bank. Merkel said the euro's strength against the dollar is proving to be "a bit of a headache."

hilary - 15 Apr 2008 09:31 - 9689 of 11056

08:30 *UK ANNUAL CPI INFLATION UNCHANGED AT 2.5 PERCENT IN MARCH
08:30 *UK MARCH RPI INFLATION UP 3.8 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR, LOWEST SINCE JULY 2007

FreemanFox - 15 Apr 2008 13:33 - 9690 of 11056

Anybody offer any help with recommendations/preferences for opening another FX account.

One I have at moment, I mainly opened for option trading and sort of stumbled into trading Forex in it as it was convenient but as I do more FX than options nowadays I need another account I think with tighter spreads.

Spreads I have at the moment are cable - 4 pips, euro 3, g/j 8.

Any suggestions?

hilary - 15 Apr 2008 14:17 - 9691 of 11056

I really don't think it matters who you use, FF, so long as you stay in your position long enough to get the reward. In a fast moving market there's always a risk that your broker will struggle to get your trade away. You can probably improve on those spreads by a pip or two, but there's always a chance that your broker's quote will be skewed off the price showing on your charts so I believe it's swings and roundabouts. If you're prepared to hold long enough to reap 100 or 200 pips profit, then the odd pip or two in spread is academic, imo.

If you're really that bothered about it you need to be trading directly onto the CME.

Notwithstanding, you should have several accounts open anyway. You never know when you might need to use them.

FreemanFox - 15 Apr 2008 14:34 - 9692 of 11056

Thanks Hils,

The spread I'm not really bothered about too much. If there were 2 brokers who offered similar reliability and service than obviously I'd go for the one with the lower spreads. You've hit the nail on the head about several acccounts and it is the primary reason why I realise I need other accounts just in case my platform freezes. Thankfully, doesn't happen too often but you never know.

My main criteria would be reliability and service. Also, I guess a big factor at the moment is making sure my money is safe, bearing in mind all the difficulties with financial institutes at the moment.

I'd rather open accounts with ones people have felt comfortable with and recommended, hence the post.

Anybody like to offer any views on ones to go with or ones to avoid even?

hilary - 15 Apr 2008 15:38 - 9693 of 11056

Cable holding just above huge trigger

We're in for an interesting battle in cable. If it holds above 1.9615 for the next week and below 2.0615, the holder of a double-no-touch option stands to collect GBP 20 mln. If the seller of the option, likely one of the big US investment banks, a UK clearer or a European mega-bank, wants to avoid paying out that big chunk of change, it may be willing to spend a few bucks trying to drive cable below 1.9615. That way it gets to pocket the premium and avoid the paying out on the lottery ticket. Look for good two-way flows as both the holder and the writer of the option protect their interests. If 1.9615 holds, be prepared for a nasty short-squeeze as the writer needs to buy back the cable sold in an effort to trigger the barrier. Cable trades now at 1.9625.

FreemanFox - 15 Apr 2008 16:28 - 9694 of 11056

Anybody trade with Twowaymarkets?

They seem to have tight spreads but don't know about trading platform, reliability etc.

FreemanFox - 15 Apr 2008 17:15 - 9695 of 11056

A lot of pairs today had a lot smaller daily range than usual.

Think we're winding up for some big moves.

chocolat - 15 Apr 2008 18:34 - 9696 of 11056

Foxie - I registered with Twowayspreads a while back. Not done anything with it, and their logo looks the same, so I guess they're connected to Worldspreads too, although at a quick glance I can't see anywhere that says so.

FreemanFox - 15 Apr 2008 18:59 - 9697 of 11056

Thanks chocolat,

Worldspreads? Are they well known?

hilary - 15 Apr 2008 19:02 - 9698 of 11056

2ws is owned by Ws. It's called white labelling.

Divetime - 15 Apr 2008 20:11 - 9699 of 11056

FF I use GFT good platform nice charting package, been with them for two years they seem ok 4 pip spread on cable though, also use FXCM no problem, GFT have a Spreadbet platform as well, 3 pip spread on cable.

FreemanFox - 16 Apr 2008 07:46 - 9700 of 11056

Thanks Divetime.

I'll put them on my list to checkout.

Anybody else have good experiences and recommend a broker worth opening an account with?
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