from w-w-bb:

19.01.2007 - Total Rocketscience

The third and final company making up our Risk / Reward trilogy on shares for 2007 has so many investment negatives that most observers might not even give it more than a cursory glance. Although quoted on the London AIM market, it is based on the other side of the World, has reported revenues and cash flow of diddly squat and, more importantly, operates in an area of expertise so deep in boffinland that you need to be at least a 5 star techie to venture anywhere near it.

What originally persuaded us to give it a second look was the fact that legendary Stockmarket investor, Jim Slater, was pouring money into it via several successive rounds of financing. As we all know, Mr. Slater is a qualified accountant and hugely experienced corporate financier but clearly he is more at home in leafy Surrey than in the technologically rarified atmosphere of Southern California. However, he must have gleaned enough about what the company actually did to get extremely excited about it. In fact, by last Autumn, he had grown to like it so much that, to paraphrase the immortal Victor Kiam, he bought the remaining 51 % of the company that his vehicle, Original Investments, didn't already own.

The company in question was VIALOGY and, ever since it was fully reversed into Original just before Christmas, Slater's loyal band of followers have seen their highly speculative penny punt move on to the calculated risk category and been duly rewarded with a 50% shareprice improvement. We first latched on to this situation last April when we wrote a piece entitled The Cisco Kid ( see news archive ). To recap briefly, the company was set up by some brainboxes who had earlier worked together on supercomputing projects for NASA. Led by Dr. Sandip Gulati, the team appeared to have perfected software to detect and enhance extremely weak signals previously obscured by background noise. This may not seem particularly earthshattering to the layman but, apparently, the applications for this technology are not only revolutionary but almost limitless which suggests that an exponential rise in licensing income could well lie ahead.

Big news clearly travels fast on the Eastern seaboard because global behemoths Cisco and Boeing have already enlisted Vialogy to work on 2 major government inspired projects and these are just the ones that the company have been allowed to talk about publicly. As we reported in April, Cisco has contracted Vialogy to help with its IPICS programme which seeks to make sure that all emergency services and government agencies can communicate with each other quickly via computers and phones. The need to address this obvious requirement was highlighted by 9 / 11 when communications between different departments with different systems proved chaotic.

For its part, Boeing has recently confirmed that Vialogy has delivered a tenfold improvement in the accuracy and efficiency of the types of gyroscopes it uses in spacecraft and missile navigational systems. It is also known that both Cisco and Boeing see a major role for the technology in such areas as border controls and missile defence systems. Elsewhere a much smaller Texan company, Evolution Petroleum, is applying the technology to improving seismic evaluation of oil and gas deposits.

This initial clutch of applications is almost certainly just the tip of a very large iceberg that is going to float into view over the next few years and all that is required is a little patience. At todays price of 5.5p, Vialogy is valued at a mere 22m. To justify this valuation, the company would have to be earning say 2 million pretax. With cash reserves of 3 million and its heavyweight partners funding the projects it is involved in, Vialogy should be able to get through to breakeven without further recourse to shareholders. We would expect this stage to be reached sometime over the next 12 months. Thereafter, profits could / should escalate very dramatically as new applications and licensing income start to snowball.

On a two year view, shareholders could be rewarded extremely handsomely indeed. Vialogy is in so many ways akin to last weeks selection, CORAC. Both are now moving from the development stage to commercialization with the scales tipping away from blue sky risk towards the reality of cash flow. Both have mindblowing upside potential yet both have current shareprice action that makes drying paint look positively orgasmic. Although this presents an opportunity for latecomers, it is a frustrating byproduct of both companies involvement with highly sensitive technology and powerful, publicity shy partners. Moreover, the present lack of any meaningful numbers together with the sheer scale of future potential makes any serious stockbroker research well nigh impossible. All this will resolve itself in due course but, as they say in the Grolsch advert, all good things come to those who wait.

Ah, sensible! Sensible is defensive stock. This comes under my 'small stake, have a punt' tag. But hope springs eternal & all that.........

The 6 mark didn't last for long, can only hope it continues up or is that asking tooooo much?

article on Vialogy in Society of Petroleum Engineers

http://www.spe.org/jpt/2009/07/new-reservoir-evaluation-tool-chosen-for-multifield-analysis/

At last people are beginning to take VIY's technology seriously, shouldn't be long before news of drilling successes produces many more contracts.

If just some of the american oil companies that there are out in Texas and the Gulf region take up this technology...this could go ballistic....10p....perhaps a burst up to 15p !.

I guess all depends on the success ( or otherwise) with these first ventures.Then it could really fly

there is no doubt that VIY has some very clever technology, but it is taking a very long time to produce results - i.e. profits and a reflection in sp.
i am sure all will come good eventually, but i guess there will be plenty of time to jump on board and make a very good turn some time in the future .... just as is the case with even theoretical quality diddly-squat E&P oilies and miners

The graph is looking good Cynic....that's the main reason for me jumping back in...made a smallish profit before.....there will be ups and downs along the way and you cannot compare this to the ftse main market shares of say a pound or more...this at the moment has got momentum....and short term at a guess might tackle the 8 or 9p's..

PS..why the hell EK doesn't close his short ?..I don't know...you have to react quickly to these things.

He isn't doing too well atm. His total position is breakeven last time I saw & he freely admits that VIY is a step in to the unknown for him.

per my post 960, i don't much like it when prices are controlled solely by MMs as they can do silly things both with the price and the spread without there being any outside steadying influence

worth a punt if a well known oil name chooses to try their technology.

suppose, but can't get overexcited having stupidly singed myself on these in the past

why am i such a prick?
answers on a postage stamp, please!

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm. where do we start :))

top left-hand corner!

VIALOGY (VIY):

Last week, Frank reported that Vialogy had announced a contract to provide its QuantumRD service at several sites operated by The Buckingham Group of Texas.

Hot on the heels of this comes another similar deal. This time it is with a privately owned but unnamed oil company in Texas that drills 40 wells a year. The contract is for ViaLogy to apply QuantumRD to one prospect at a depth of 11,000 feet. This is at a location where oil finds are problematic and costs are high, meaning that it is all the more important to define any reservoir with accuracy.

If QuantumRD can prove its worth at this more challenging location, then it will mark another important advance. Clearly there is considerable interest in QuantumRD. Oil explorers are prepared to give it a try and if it proves as successful as it has done hitherto, then its use will only accelerate. The share price is moving nicely so still a BUY UP TO 7p

Cynic: did you get in there? I agree that they're scary to trade in CFDs because of the spread. Of my little clutch of shares for long-term hold (as I got more than singed in CFDs), VIY is doing the best. And I won't be selling them at 10p or 15p as I'm prepared to sit on these for a while.

good to see an article on VIY in on-line version of Society of Petroleum Engineers.

The word is getting out, these could go ballistic on further good news!

http://www.spe.org/jpt/2009/07/new-reservoir-evaluation-tool-chosen-for-multifield-analysis/#more-3351

22 July 2009 in JPT, Management (MI), Reservoir (RDD), US/Canada

Signal-processing innovator ViaLogy has been awarded a multisite services contract to analyze three separate oil and gas leases using its QuantumRD subsurface interpretation software. With this technology, the company promises to deliver higher resolution of subsurface features and more precise recommendations on drilling locations.

ViaLogy was awarded the contract by the Texas-based Buckingham Group, a company of six affiliates that holds multiple leases with extensive drilling rights throughout Texas. Under the risk-sharing agreement, the companies will target both exploratory and development wells in the 3,000 to 9,000-ft depth formations of three separate fields in the Permian Basin. QuantumRD will be used to analyze multiple subsurface imaging modalitiesincluding seismic, geochemistry, magnetic, and satellite datasets.


An image from raw seismic data (top) becomes sharper and more detailed after QuantumRD processing (bottom).
ViaLogy states that the software platform is essentially a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) enhancement engine, able to detect and mediate weak signals that may not be detected by conventional analytic solutions. QuantumRD works with existing 2D, 3D, or 4D geoseismic datasets to exploit seismic noise inherent in raw data tracesindependent of formation type and complexityby using stochastic resonance-based algorithms for signal processing. These algorithms are able to very effectively extract spatial and temporal signals that are buried within background clutter or noise and inject a specially designed noise signal into the data, resulting in improved SNR.

This increased SNR yields better interpretation of rock facies and porosities, allowing Quantum RD to analyze noisy and lower-resolution data from less-expensive acquisition methods. The company states that their technology has achieved extraction of signals that are as low as 10-100 times below background.

An operator employing this technology can achieve cost-saving advantages in the form of:

Increased probability of identifying and precisely locating hydrocarbon deposits
Better recovery of oil and gas with fewer wells
Enhanced secondary recovery through enhanced oil and gas recovery methods
Improved recovery and return on investment by detecting unswept recoverable hydrocarbons for smaller producing formations and fields
Avoiding the high cost of dry holes, which ViaLogy estimates at USD 450,000.
For Buckingham, ViaLogy will use QuantumRD to deliver a characterization of hydrocarbon reservoir boundaries, subsurface formations, lithology, depth, porosity estimates, and recommended drilling locations.

We are encouraged by the technology ViaLogy has introduced and expect that it will mitigate risk and provide us with a critical advantage, said Darryl Buckingham, chief executive officer of the Buckingham Group. We are particularly looking to deploy QuantumRD for reserves on the eastern shelf of the Permian Basin where conventional 3D seismic has been unreliable and difficult due, in part, to the heavily fractured nature of underlying geology.

We like ViaLogys approach to sharing the risk, Buckingham continued. They will receive a services fee, and when we complete wells to production, they will receive a percentage of the recovery as a success fee.

To learn more about QuantumRD, visit www.vialogy.com.

Ted Moon is the Technology Editor of JPT Online. He brings information on emerging technologies, R&D successes, new field applications, updates from SPE papers about recent innovations, and more. If you have a question or suggestion for future article topics, email Ted at teched@spe.org.

Thanks for the info Notlob