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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

storergroup - 28 Sep 2006 15:06 - 961 of 1009

so where do we see this going then, after today's news????
offer of maybe 220p?? i really don't know??
a hell of a lot of sells now!!

pachandl - 28 Sep 2006 16:26 - 962 of 1009

I will keep smiling (and praying that talks conclude with a positive outcome). It must involve something around a minimum of 200/210p surely?

55011 - 28 Sep 2006 16:43 - 963 of 1009

Or more.

ateeq180 - 28 Sep 2006 17:36 - 964 of 1009

TODAYS GRAPH LOOKS WONDERFUL,HOPE TO SEE ABOVE 2.50P TOMORROW,IF DEAL GETS CONFIRMED,HOPE NO PROFIT TAKING AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

Fundamentalist - 28 Sep 2006 18:52 - 965 of 1009

2.50 a tad optimistic imo - would be almost double the SP when takeover talks commenced and an unrealistic takeout price based on fundies imo. Expect the takeout price to be 200pish (max 10p either side)

Flackwell Vialli - 28 Sep 2006 19:24 - 966 of 1009

I'd echo the cynicism over the FSA - What will it take to have an effective body in this country, maintaining a level playing field as far as possible for all market participants ?

Over to you Blair................

Douggie - 28 Sep 2006 20:39 - 967 of 1009

:o))))))))

Douggie - 29 Sep 2006 08:59 - 968 of 1009

HI fred are you out counting your chickens ,,,?1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9... I'm having a go

but scared of droping my basket and loosing a lot.... my foresight is not nearly as good as my hindsight .....;o/

pachandl - 29 Sep 2006 09:01 - 969 of 1009

Mentioned in the DT albeit w/o any mention of take-over price (but reading between the lines it would seem to be around the 200/210 mark).

pachandl - 29 Sep 2006 16:15 - 970 of 1009

Goodness me - I was almost spot on (200/210). Makes a change!

Douggie - 29 Sep 2006 16:21 - 971 of 1009

is that it then end of story ...?

55011 - 29 Sep 2006 16:47 - 972 of 1009

Just the end of the beginning.......................

storergroup - 29 Sep 2006 16:50 - 973 of 1009

so what are people doing then??
staying or going?????

Douggie - 29 Sep 2006 17:23 - 974 of 1009

looks like we will have to wait 'till mid Jan for our 205p !! .. ;-/

Douggie - 29 Sep 2006 17:24 - 975 of 1009

any comments Fundy to help we lesser knwlegable punters out .. ;o\

pachandl - 29 Sep 2006 18:29 - 976 of 1009

Personally I don't blame Clumpy. The market consistently under-rated RTD so he has simply used that to his advantage. Unless a hostile bid comes in he is entitled to say that his offer has valued the company fairly. Sweet revenge I suppose!

optomistic - 29 Sep 2006 19:12 - 977 of 1009

Douggie, if you don't want to wait until January for the cash you can always sell now on the market. If you don't think there is likely to be a further bid you will then have the cash to use elsewhere. Then you will probably know that, but some will wait for the conclusion of the deal to save the trading commissions, but the interest that could be earned in a bank may be more than the commission.
Well done on your holding and for being so patient although sometimes by looking at your posts I think you must have been a little worried on the odd occasion.
Cheers
opto

Fundamentalist - 29 Sep 2006 20:07 - 978 of 1009

Opto, douggie, pachandl and anyone else who has held on well done :-)).

205p per share seems a decent price to me, theyd still be at 150ish if the takeover wasnt about. Personally would take the 200p from the market, why wait 3 months for an extra 2% (unless you think a hostile counter bid will come in)

Fred1new - 06 Oct 2006 12:27 - 979 of 1009

Any news of a counter bid? ICV says wait for documents. May be I am greedy! But Douggie you can now have that holiday in peace.

biffa18 - 07 Oct 2006 19:28 - 980 of 1009

well thats it i think cant see much more scope in waiting so sold my 250tho but never saw them go thro bit strange that ! good luck for the rest of you
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