Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Thanks everyone for the support and encouragement.

Isaacs thanks for the link, I will have a read. You are right to some extent that it is the emotional side that has had a big impact on things. But I think it has been more the external attractions that have affected me more than anything else. Just got to put things out of my head and move on.

Choccie just goes to show there is always a way. I thank you for your words and wish you well in your recovery. I am so grateful that I am in good health any short term difficulties that I have are only that.

Jeffmack, yes things are tough out there. Good luck with your future plans.

Keaydian - Yes you are right I should just trust my abilities and focus on trading each opportunity that comes along rather than dwell on my recent failings. In fact, during this same disastrous period trading my proper accounts, I found I had an old spreadbet account that I still had a bit of funds in that Id forgotten about. I traded the FTSE100 Index exclusively just focusing on trading the correct setups rather than chasing the money. In 7 trading days I turned it into a 10-bagger! Unfortunately, only started with 50 quid, but because it was so little amount I focused on just doing the right thing so that should give me confidence in my abilities in the very least.

Hils, thanks for the kind words and the offer of support. I appreciate it. I think I need to chill out and take a break from trading my proper accounts for a while. Think Ill focus on trading the FTSE for small amounts in my revitalised spreadbet account plus do a bit of programming automated systems for a bit of relief.

Thanks again everyone.

Isaacs, thanks for posting the book link, a useful read.

Hope you were off to a good start, Foxie.


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--With not much important economic data due out next week, the dollar may remain a crash test dummy for volatile oil and stock markets, making it vulnerable to more record lows versus the euro.

When stock markets plunged early this week on worries over mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the euro jumped to a fresh lifetime high of $1.6040 against the dollar. The dollar also fell to its lowest level against Japan's yen since late May, a display of the U.S. currency's broad weakness.

The dollar bounced back just as quickly, however, when oil prices dipped below $130 a barrel and U.S. companies reported somewhat firm earnings, which helped stock markets notch a modest recovery.

But analysts say the dollar's rebound from its record low versus the euro shouldn't be expected to keep going, not against a backdrop of continued volatility in other asset classes and a U.S. economy that continues to weaken.

"The price action remains subject to sharp reversals driven by the volatile mood in the crude-oil and equity markets," said Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo Bank.

Analysts at Credit Suisse also worry that the reasons for the dollar's modest rebound this week may actually be the result of fundamentally dollar-negative news.

"The U.S. economy itself is driving much of the downturn in global demand, which is being partly credited for the recent oil price fall," the currency strategists say in a research report. "We remain skeptical of dollar bounces."

Of course, the dollar may receive some support from a speech planned for Tuesday in New York by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, the official voice for the U.S. currency.

Against that background, the euro is seen trading between $1.56 and $1.61 next week, while the dollar could move in a wide range between Y103.50 and Y108.

Friday in New York, the euro was at $1.5851, up from $1.5830 late Thursday. The dollar was at Y106.79, up from Y106.68, while the euro was at Y169.25, up from Y168.87, according to EBS. The U.K. pound was at $1.9962, down from $1.9995, and the dollar was at CHF1.0213, down from CHF1.0228 late Thursday.

Erratic trading in the dollar has become the norm in foreign exchange markets recently. The euro has traded in a broad range between $1.53 and $1.60 for the past four months, testing the top and bottom of that range several times.

There may, however, be a light at the end of the tunnel. A Dow Jones Newswires survey this week of 23 analysts forecast the embattled dollar to begin to recover on a longer-term basis. They see, on average, the euro at $1.56 at the end of the year and at $1.50 roughly a year from now. The analysts see the dollar at Y107 by the end of this year and Y110 by late-June 2009.

But currency strategists such as Geoffrey Yu at UBS say the dollar's immediate future remains rather dim.

"We still doubt this is the end of dollar weakness," Yu said. "Equities, while recovering, remain trapped in a bear market."

He and other analysts skeptical on the dollar in the near term also point to reports that global sovereign wealth funds - state-controlled investment entities that are typically huge buyers of dollars - may be scaling back their exposure to the U.S. currency.

That's not to say the dollar has no chance of making a push toward the high end of its recent range against the euro in the coming week.

Oil prices could continue to correct next week after hitting a record $147 earlier this month, which may benefit the dollar insofar as it would improve the outlook of U.S. consumers squeezed by soaring gasoline prices.

Still, currency traders are hesitant to view lower oil prices as an unwavering positive factor for the dollar. Cheaper prices for crude would likely reduce the Federal Reserve's worries about inflation, which would make policy setters less likely to raise interest rates any time soon.

If the Fed keeps its benchmark interest rate at a low 2% for an extended period without hiking, this could further damp interest in the buck as it would keep investors' expected returns on dollar-based assets rather low.

U.S. data out next week could, of course, surprise to the upside, providing some dollar support. Among the key indicators are weekly jobless claims, existing home sales, durable goods orders and a University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment survey.

The Fed's beige book, a district-by-district summary of economic conditions, is also due out Wednesday.

Thanks Choccie, Yes I had another successful day trading the FTSE100 index on Friday. The long fight back begins ....

When did USD/JPY fall to 80.00? Just after the Kobe quake of 1995.

Japanese insurers typically keep a large percentage of their reserves in higher-yielding overseas assets. If they suffered heavy losses, they would have to repatriate that cash invested overseas.

To review: Don't sell yen on a big Japanese quake, buy with both hands.

UPDATE: The wires report Japanese nuclear plants are operating normally after the 6.8 quake hit Honshu

Today's silly question, is it possible to trade the USDX (US Dollar Index), it looks interesting above 74.

Very wise words from Chocolat in post 9959 above.

Spacie,

I'm sure that it is possible, but I'm not sure who with I'm afraid, nor do I know what the likely spread would be.

Notwithstanding, why do you want to trade USDX? It is very good for identifying the major Dollar downtrend which has been in place now for several years together with the cycles which occur within that downtrend. Something like 52% composition of USDX is derived from fiber and the balance is from the other Europeans except for about 13% which comes from USD/JPY. Any broker who does trade USDX will need a SEK feed as that is used as part of the calculation.

Quite frankly, you might just as well trade a European pair such as cable or fiber.

hils, cant download the book on mq4, do you have any suggestions where else might be able to get a copy. have sent them an email, but have had no response as yet

What book, Gofe? This manual is the only one I'm aware of.

Anyone else having problems with ODL-MT4 right now?

Yes, that's a relief as I thought it was me, Chocopops. Invalid account.

Yep same here :S
Phew!

Actually, I hope they haven't booted us off, Hil - I've had a few emails recently about opening an account, and they appear to have extended their offer, I guess cos there's not much take-up?

Edit: All's well :) Was just in the middle of mailing Mr Newell too.

It's possible that they purge all demo accounts every now and again, Chocopops, as it might well cost them a license fee to keep them open with MetaQuotes. If so, it'll just be a case of re-registering.

It's frustrating as hell though, because I was hoping to get some meaningful data from my EA today. This will have buggered up the sampling for sure!

I do have a backup Alpari a/c for "Condor" moments like this.

edit: Back here too. Not much damage done thankfully, so panic over.

Well he's just replied - system upgrade on the server, should be ok in a few more minutes.

Mine gone also

can also get mt4 at infobank, had mine running since beginning may without any problems, only problem is their bid/spread can go abit wide at times!

Sad news last night that Thomson Reuters are going to shut the FX Hub next Friday.

Are the boys going somewhere else?

Who knows, Chocopops? Jamie Coleman said something about his Facebook page, but I don't know whether that will work or not. I think Mark Mitchell's on holiday atm, so I don't know what his plans are.