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Coffee Heaven - A heavenly share for penny punters ? (COH)     

overgrowth - 06 Oct 2003 22:47

underground01_2.jpgA busy day in the Warsaw Underground ! Not just another coffee shop chain - this one is a brand leader and is only trading in Eastern/Central Europe (i.e. the countries recently admitted to the EU destined for substantial business growth). The company is creating new outlets at a fair old pace and take a look at their website - these are quality stores in high-profile locations like major airports, railway stations etc. Website: http://www.coffeeheaven.eu.com

APRIL 2006 TRADING UPDATE!!! Total Gross Revenues for 12 months to 31st March up 66% to £6.3M (2005: £3.8M) Lots more info. on new markets and stores click here to read the full details. Stores: 43 (up from 32) stores currently trading (Poland: 30 (up from 23), Czech Republic: 6 (Up from 2), Latvia: 7 with a further 5 units under construction including Bulgaria and sites secured in Romania (subject contract). Bulgaria & Romania are seeking to join the EU from January 2007. Sites located in key high street, shopping malls or Airport locations. Company growth target: increase number of units by at least 20 units to some 63 units by 31 March 2007. Aim being to achieve this level of growth within present Cash resources.Cash balances at 31 March 2006 were approximately £2.9M (2005: £0.7M). Debt was nil (2005: £ 2.5M): Nil Debt! Positive EBITDA: For the year ending 31 March 2006, Group EBITDA expected to be firmly positive after charging UK and new market development costs but before exceptional costs relating to the cancellation of bonds (previous Debt). Forecasts: Based on present trading conditions and current exchange rates we anticipate indicative sales of £9.3M for the year to 31 March 2007. This includes indicative sales of £0.4M from Bulgaria, which will be reported but not consolidated. From Richard Worthington (Chairman and Chief Executive): ‘The new financial year has started well. There is no doubt that the significant economic improvement in our markets is feeding through to consumer confidence and spending. The strength of the coffeeheaven brand ensures we are ideally positioned to benefit from our customers' increasing prosperity.’

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=COH&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=COH&Si

Ultimate Cynic - 11 Jan 2005 14:03 - 81 of 2037

Someone has spoilt the party at 13:35 today selling 150,000 at 0.85p.
I hope this is not going to spark a selling trend.

overgrowth - 11 Jan 2005 20:37 - 82 of 2037

UC - I don't think a sell of just over 1,000 will affect much lol!

You have to think long term with these guys. The handsome rewards are on their way and will be with us in due course.

If COH achieve their Polish sales targets at the end of March and have turnover to add from the new stores elsewhere, then sales could double by the next results after those, given the aggressive expansion plan in place.

The really good thing is that once the initial capital expenditure of the earlier stores has been returned in profits, we will then start to see a very healthy rise in the sp.

stockpick - 12 Jan 2005 19:37 - 83 of 2037

COH model is to bring stores on line and make then trade well before expanding into others. It is a sound model and should avoid the issues the UK stores had on high loans for expansion. This is good for business but slow on growth so as overgrowth saya this is a long term steady growth. Must hope that once a reasonable size is reached one of the big boys will come in and push the price up. Lets face it at this level you can not realy loose unless anything realy drastic goes wrong. The only downside is the currency rates which can cost. One other benefit is the weak dollar, If I remember the rent on some stores are paid in dollars so this should drop through to the bottom line.

richie1saunders - 12 Jan 2005 21:09 - 84 of 2037

Yes the weakness of the dollar in recent times should do no harm. I agree that the business model is sound and that with COH it is importnant to consider the long term big picture. Wealth is undoubtedly being created in Eastern Europe. The economies of COH target countries are growing, house prices are rising rapidly, EU investment is starting to hit home. The COH management appear canny enough to exploit this and build a very successful business over the next few years. Let's hope so anyway!

zscrooge - 13 Jan 2005 19:13 - 85 of 2037

What are the implications of the the City Equities announcement re buys by small shareholder clients?

Do you agree that it is a case of those in the know "getting in" before something is announced or a tip is released?

Is it the case that dilution will lead to increased share value because it is funding additional assets in Czech. & Latvia?

Cheers

zscrooge - 13 Jan 2005 19:16 - 86 of 2037

Incidentally, Overgrowth, as we seem to have similar interests (RTD, MDW) any thoughts on NWT?

overgrowth - 13 Jan 2005 20:55 - 87 of 2037

zscrooge - more retail investors in COH (via CE or elsewhere) will guarantee more liquidity which in turn will reduce spreads and attract more buyers as they see the massive potential of this gem of a company unfolding. Good news in my view.

The placement pays for further rapid growth into new markets - which after all is what all investors are looking for. As I mentioned in an earlier posting, any minor dilutions at this stage to fund capital investment will be irrelevant when the recurring profits start to come through in bigger and bigger chunks with each set of results.

I've just had a quick look at NWT - nothing particularly inspiring stands out right now, though I'll give them some further research when I get a chance. As for MDW - get ready to fasten seatbelts!

zscrooge - 14 Jan 2005 08:05 - 88 of 2037

Thanks.
Hope so but seen false dawns with MDW before!

zscrooge - 25 Jan 2005 09:54 - 89 of 2037

a little blue..

shareshark - 27 Jan 2005 10:02 - 90 of 2037

And some more blue...

overgrowth - 27 Jan 2005 20:36 - 91 of 2037

I think there will be plenty more blue to come in the future with COH guys - hang on in there for the really big gains!

overgrowth - 27 Jan 2005 22:12 - 92 of 2037

It's been said by many that Coffeeheaven model themselves on Starbucks.

Have you seen Starbucks results from yesterday !!!!

"01/26/2005 - 04:03 PM

Starbucks Announces Record First Quarter Fiscal 2005 Results & Raises Full Year EPS Target Range; Net Revenues Increase 24 Percent to a Record $1.6 billion."

overgrowth - 28 Jan 2005 22:18 - 93 of 2037

My money is on Starbucks to take them out in 2-3 years with a 20p target.

If this doesn't happen then, we're looking at a company which is currently spending a fortune on capital investment (and still holding its own admirably), though gradually COH will reap the benefits of all their investment and hard work - recurring revenue will be huge and because they hammered out highly beneficial agreements on purchase of outlets and rental agreements BEFORE the massive hike in property prices in central Europe (which is inevitable), COH will be laughing all the way to the bank.

At some point in the future whether its when they've got 70 outlets in 2006 or 250 in 2010 as a long term investment I believe that Coffeeheaven is going to be one of those shares that you look at in the not too distant future and think "if only I'd bought a million shares when they were 1p - I'd be a millionaire by now!".

siralex - 29 Jan 2005 21:18 - 94 of 2037

my biggest holding these . friends off mine are off to prague shortly and have instructions to visit coh and do some research.i agree about a possible takeover in the future but i am slightly concerned about them delisting and moving to another market.

overgrowth - 30 Jan 2005 20:39 - 95 of 2037

siralex - let us know how the "field trip" goes - I've heard several accounts from people visting Coffeeheaven outlets and all have been very positive so far.

I believe that the next results will provide evidence that the company is growing well and now starting to bring in a decent income after all the up-front capital investment. This in turn will attract more buyers and as soon as the share price starts to grow at the same rapid pace that the company is growing at, any thoughts of delisting will be put on the back burner.

Delisting has only been mentioned in the past because Nigel Worthington was concerned that UK investors were thin on the ground because unless they travelled to central Europe, they would be unable to experience the excellent Coffeeheaven stores first-hand and as such were more likely to put their their cash into Cafe Nero etc. Whereas, the Poles are aware that Coffeeheaven is a brand leader and regularly have the opportunity to see the customers growing - so, re-floating on the Warsaw exchange could rocket COH from being a 1p share to a 10p share just by moving markets. Re-floating is expensive though and the decision will not be taken lightly - particularly if UK investors suddenly spot Coffeeheaven's potential (which is just a matter of time).

shareshark - 03 Feb 2005 09:15 - 96 of 2037

And another good tick up this morning - Caffe Nero results today are good apparently!

dclinton - 03 Feb 2005 10:04 - 97 of 2037

Wonderful. Topped up yesterday!

AdieH - 03 Feb 2005 12:39 - 98 of 2037

SEO, BPRG and this one whats going on... Happy days.

overgrowth - 03 Feb 2005 19:34 - 99 of 2037

Great news in Shares mag page 11.

"Coffeeheaven is set to show strong profits growth thanks to strong currency swings in its favour".

COH take cash from customers in Zlotys and lease their properties in $ or Euros.

"So where's the good news ?" you may ask...

Only that the Zloty was the best performing currency in 2004 :-)

shareshark - 03 Feb 2005 20:32 - 100 of 2037

Thanks for pointing that one out overgrowth - had`nt really considered the currency factor too much - great news :-)

COH will probably get tipped by Shares Mag or IC soon - cant be too long with all indicators looking positive.
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