A thread set up and dedicated to Gold and Mining stocks.

Gold could be set to bounce up again in the near future and throughout the autumn and winter. Higher oil prices and inflationary worries both here and in the states mean its an excelent hedge against the falling dollar and weaking markets.

Please post which stocks you feel may benefit other posters. Lets all try and make some money from Mining.

cheers GF.

Seems like someone from another board agrees and puts forwards these points for buying..............................

So.....why buy more Soco now?

Four inter-related reasons:
1) Newsflow is now very much in sight on several fronts. None of it has yet emerged though, so analysts have yet to revisit their old views and recommendations. There was, and indeed remains, a chance to get in before serious interest picks up again.
2) There is, IMO, a decent chance of some very large price rises within the next 6 months, accompanied by increased downside protection. Once newsflow starts, the shares will come back onto institutional radar screens - you can wait for it to emerge, or you can speculate now at what I think will prove to be a lower price -perhaps much lower!
3) The market thinks there is nothing happening and has gone to sleep on the prospects. You can see this in the broadly sideways drift and very low volumes on most days [until this week]. They are wrong. Yemen and perhaps Mongolia should provide some near-term good news.
4) The time to buy is when no-one else seems very interested.ENDS.

Looks very interesting and could be a cracker of a stock.

cheers GF.

Up she goes , up 13.5p, and looks to have plenty of legs. Will make a seperate thread for this one.

cheers GF.

Soco now up 22p, looks strong.

cheers GF.

Goldfinger

Can you reply to a post on the NML thread, please.

Heres a system to sift out the Gold winners from the losers................

If gold is a low risk investment during the Kondratieff winter, which shares, after bullion itself, should we be buying - gold producers or exploration companies? Let's examine the 'pros' and 'cons' of each of them.

Gold Producing Companies:
Pros:
-Investment grade. Large Market Caps-appropriate for investment funds.
-Cash flow via production.
-Excellent liquidity.
-Share prices generally rise faster than the price of gold itself.

Cons:
-Depleting their resources through production. Difficulty finding sufficient reserves to maintain production at current levels; i.e., Newmont 7.2 million ounces p.a.
-Hierarchal management-slow to make decisions.
-Exploration subject to committee review and budgetary constraints.
-Limited exploration since 1998.
-Only a small number of companies to choose from.

Junior Exploration Companies:
Pros:
-Responsible for 70% of discoveries.
-Growing their gold.
-Quick response management.
-Innovative geologists; prepared to see the unconventional.
-The onset of the Kondratieff winter suggests the largest bull market in gold in the entire cycle. In that environment share prices rise faster than those of their conservative counterparts.
-A major discovery positively impacts the share prices of most exploration companies.
-An ability to release regular news in progress.
-Management usually owns a large stake in the company and has a vested interest in achieving positive results on the behalf of all shareholders.

Cons:
-Management under suspicion-not trusted.
-Viewed as very high risk investments.
-Investors don't understand news releases, because they are usually not geologists-can't follow a discovery in progress.
-Poor liquidity; small market caps-not suitable for most investment funds.
-Difficulty in raising money; major dilution at low share prices.

Evaluating Juniors:
The key is Management. The Long Wave approach, developed by my team at Canaccord is subjective but still useful.

Points System:
Resource -
50 points- Defined Resource
35 points- Discovery
15 points- Grass Roots.
Management - Max 50 points
Properties - Max 35 pts
Promotion - Max 15 pts
Blue Sky - Max 25 pts
Political Risk - Max 30 pts
Market Cap - Max 30 pts
Shares Outstanding - <5million - Max 10 points

I much prefer investing in juniors versus seniors in a gold bull market, because:
- There is significantly more upside price potential, following a discovery.
- Easy to be selective. There are plenty to choose from. Follow the management.
- Exciting to follow progress; discovery-resources-reserves.
- Management is usually dedicated to enhancing shareholder value. It wins, too.

So there you have it, I believe that gold at this point in the Kondratieff cycle is a low risk investment and good junior gold mining shares are arguably an even lower risk than their senior producing counterparts. Now go and buy some. However, you must remember to buy management.

For a detailed presentation of my interpretation of the Kondratieff Cycle visit my website www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca.

http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/

http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/

cheers GF.

I hold LMI and AFE. I am tempted by FDI and Galahad Gold -- what ones do you now favour as we have to select ones to back? cheers MP

FDI and TSG

Thanks aldwikk

Im in AFE and have been tempted by TSG and Centamin (who I rate as the best explorer of them all)but I feel you should buy the junior producers first with POG at these levels and then move onto the explorers as POG moves higher.

Producers I am in, avocet, Bema, Peter Hambro, and Golden Prospect. Ive also opened a new position in Cambrian, but that is a mining house, I suppose Golden Prospect is as well but it seems to go along with the price of POG.

cheers GF.

GF.
FDI is a producer.

Great.

Sorry but hope all you guys ok.

cheers GF.

i bought Oxus and Avocet last Dec. Avocet now is starting to move upwards and think it will got 1 plus in short term.

I still believe in Oxus although i'm well down at present. Anyone have any views on OXS

scotinvestor,

A friend of mine rang me last weeK to say he'd read that Oxus have more "problems" with the local governement.

I have not read it for myself, but these little rumours seem to emerge from time to time, and go back to the time of Oxus having difficulty obtaining an export licence for it's first gold pour.

As we know, it was eventually sorted out, but it did raise some concerns at the time, and subsequent rumours resulted in the price falling back to it's present level.

I sold as Oxus fell in order to bank the profit, and although I like the company, have not bought back yet due to these nagging little rumours.

I do hold Avocet, and I agree with you that 1 seems likely by the end of the year, if not sooner.

I intend to increase my Avocet holding as soon as I release funds elsewhere.

Interesting interview on Gold.

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Bolser.html

cheers GF.

Any thoughts on AFG goldfinger.

Just stick with it. Looks to me like the US budget deficit will bring the dollar down and POG up. I also think we are entering the asian wedding season so physical demand for gold should be increasing.

cheers GF.

Thanks GF.

>>GF

The "asian wedding season"! Well I never - learn something every day!

rgrds
gk

galick,

I think it's normally referred to as "the Indian wedding season".

This normally results in increased demand for gold, although I think this was lessenned last year due to the higher price of POG. India is becoming more prosperous all the time, so this year may be different.

Thanks Andy - interesting.

I have a position in the JP Morgan Indian Investment trust (ticker JII). I don't know much about Indian companies, but the PE's are really low - market average is about 11 I understand. I am not really into Investment trusts but I think India is such a good play - and I was not sure how to gain access otherwise. Do you have any indian plays other than gold & commodities (which I think will continue to do well).

rgrds
gk