The early bird also gets the prime acreage - that, it appeared, was the message from John Armstrong, the bullish executive chairman of Falklands Oil and Gas and Global Petroleum. Both companies, described by Armstrong as micro-caps, are targeting frontier plays with massive exploration upside but which also carry the downside of untested geology and expensive deepwater drilling.
John Armstrong, Executive Chairman of FOGL and Global Petroleum
In Kenya this downside is limited for Global, which will see its costs carried through the first two wells by partners Woodside (operator with 50 per cent) and Dana (30 per cent). Over 30 leads, ranging in size from 20 to 100 sq km, have been identified on two blocks, L5 and L7.
Water depths are challenging out here - between 1,600 and 2,800 metres - and Armstrong doesnt expect the joint venture to see much change from US$100 million when it drills its first two deepwater wells. But he believes the potential prize more than offsets the investment risk.
If you fill each of these 30 to 50 leads with several hundred feet of oil pay then youve got a potential 20 million barrels, said Armstrong, although he admitted he was unsure how to risk such a project.
As always the drillbit will be the real test. The partners hope to drill here in either the second or third quarters of 2006 and the most likely structures to be tested are Pomboo and Sokwe, relatively simple structures with the potential to hold a billion barrels of crude - each.
Armstrongs other company, Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL), has been a successful early bird in the southern Atlantic, where the AIM-quoted firm has scooped 79,000 sq km of frontier exploration acreage to the south and east of the Falkland Islands. This is an area equivalent to 312 North Sea blocks and FOGL has an average of 90 per cent equity. Over 130 leads have been identified here, some of which weigh in at 1,200 sq km.
Armstrong said this is an area that has been overlooked by the oil industry because water depths (between 500 and 1,500 metres) were previously out of reach, it is very remote and there was a hangover from the disappointing drilling campaign of the late 1990s in the North Falklands Basin, which has a completely different geological make-up.
FOGL is actively working up its acreage with a major 2D seismic campaign: as of Wednesday it had completed 10,300 km out of the planned 15,000 km shoot. This follows on from an earlier 9,450 km survey, which identified more than 130 leads: the current 2D campaign is designed to narrow this down to a short list of the 20 most prospective structures.
Before moving into the drilling phase of the exploration programme, FOGL plans to bring in partners with the necessary deep pockets and deepwater expertise. It has opened a data room in London to showcase 14 quadrants and part quadrants and is talking to the oil majors - all the usual suspects, including those burnt in the disappointing North Falklands campaign.
We would like to complete one of these farm-outs in the next three to six months, with drilling targeted for late 2007, said Armstrong. He dismissed concerns that a gas strike would be unworkable in these remote waters, pointing to the booming LNG market in the Atlantic Basin. Gas may be the second prize but its not too far behind the first prize [oil], he told delegates.