Ben Bailey PLC (Housebuilder).
The Mail today said to buy Bellway as they looked very cheap. BBC is cheaper still and is constantly overlooked by analysts.
I am lucky enough to have been in this one for years, and as 2005 started, it hit 500pps. After interims that said it was affected by the slowdown in the market, and the general malaise in the housing market, it has plummeted by 30%. But is this overdone?
The basics make it look very cheap. Trading on a P/e ratio of 3.508 as compared to Bellways ratio of 6.279 it has a similar dividend yield (3.198%). Having read the investors reports it appears the market did overreact, as hidden behind the headline of being affected by the market slowdown was an increasingly large landbank and a move away from their traditional stock of 3 and 4 bed detatched homes and into semis and townhouses, to increase the margin on the land they own.
Further to this, they are specialists in brownfield development, which the government is known to favour and operate solely in the north of England, where the housing market has been less affected than elsewhere.
January sees the year end results posted, and with all the above taken into account, as well as the predicted housing crash not happening, I see a return to the higher sp levels of late 2004 / early 2005. Add into this a 15pps dividend and I see a winner, both short and long term.
Thoughts anyone?
Alan

I keep talking to myself on here Al check out ALY for your retail recovery stock.

Willco, over & out.

Director buying today. 3000 @ 412p.
Good sign.

Same guy, another 1900 today at 427p.

Hi al, hope your well mate.

I am back at Rothwell Athletic this year...

Did you buy any of those BNH - they have had a good run - i sold mine at 184 after paying 61p, i am quite happy with my return!

I have reduced my equity holdings as I think things are a bit shaky at the mo, however, I have recently bought DDC - they pay a yield of 6% forecasting to pay 10% and I believe there is plenty of upside in sp yet... have a look at them:

They are essentially a eastern europe property fund. they are 1 to buy (have 90p in cash) and own 6 shopping centres on top of the cash!!

Chairman bought 17k shares at 1.07 recently, and it seems other directors have been buying as many as they can sub 1... a few million i recall.

Let us know what you think

Legend

Sounds like a good 'un, leggy.
I was a little sceptical of BNH, as you know, but I was very happy to be proven wrong. Just as a note of caution, the FSA have stopped several companies similar to BNH from taking any new business as they have real concerns over the compliance regimes being operated. The FSA will not name names but I don't believe BNH is one. But it does show how vulnerable this type of business is to the whims of the regulator.
I had DDC flagged up to me some time ago and I decided against them then, as they really don't fit my portfolio strategy. I am not anti them at all, but I am fairly heavy in property at the moment and I am still cautious about anything eastern european. After a few disasters last year, i have moved a very large percentage of my portfolio into FTSE blue chips and mid caps, and the remainder is doing sterling service in CSB, SEO, HYC and a few others.
Will be at Rothwell tomorrow, playing cricket against Glasshoughton, and no doubt we will unknowingly bump into each other as your season starts and mine ends.
Good luck with BNH and DDC.
Alan

News on BBC.
Stephen North has retired as director. Funnily enough this was the guy who was buying stock the other day at 424p.

Its almost that time of year again to check out them there charts.
Every year seems to see this one go on a climb for the last few months of the year. Its starting the 2006 climb season from a much stronger price than usual, but this cloud on the predictability seems to be because there has been director buying up to 424p.
20-30% in the last few months of the year is fairly common and as the results in the building sector start to come in, we may see it again this year.
As i keep saying, I am no chartist, but this is an perrenial of mine that seems to be strangely predictable.
You watch, that is the kiss of death for BBC.
Alan

Up almost 10% (at time of writing) since the last post and there seems to be a golden cross approaching.
Nice.

Golden cross takes place today (barring any disasters).

Hi al, great to see these motoring along.

bet your glad you still hold these huh??

am back at rothwell a this year, we've made a great start to season.

Good to hear it, leggy.
We won promotion from the 3rd division at the first try so that was fantastic. Went to the very last match, which we ended up playing in almost total darkness!!
Very happy to still be in these. Divi up, and quietly making money for me. best kind of share to own. I just regret not having more balls when I first bought them, cos at a fiver a share they are officially a ten bagger!!!
Good luck for the season. Lets put Rothwell on the sporting map.
Alan

Speaking to someone in the property business yesterday. They did not know of my holding in BBC and they mentioned them as a likely takeover target. He reasoned that the landbank now possessed by BBC was attractive to companies of the size of Persimmon as a way to grow quickly as sourcing suitable development land was becoming just too difficult and expensive to do.
His rationale was simple. Companies like Persimmon need to buy more land than they use each year, in order to grow. A builder that sells (eg) 2000 plots needs 2001+ that year. Getting that much land with planning permissions is getting almost impossible, so the route left is to buy a company that owns an existing landbank. The premium for a going concern is worth it as it saves massive amounts of money in the sourcing, applying and bidding. Further it eradicates a competitor in the bidding process so keeping the eventual tender price for such land down.
The logic works to some degree, and he is in that very arena. It will be interesting to see if an M&A frenzy does break out, and who are the targets.
Alan

Back up at a fiver again, and little trading.
Heres hoping the run up to the pre close statement continues this well.

Back after a few weeks away and, yes, the run up has continued that well!!!
Five and a half and counting. Someone somewhere expects a good pre close statement next week.
Alan

Agree, the statement should be good, based on the sound housing market and growth of number of BBC's plots.

Recent run up in share price may be due to speculation spilling over from the WLB situation. Having said that, market cap. is still too low, imho. Holding tightly onto mine.

Go, Go, BBC!!!

I am not sure whether this has been posted or not.

But question if the share price is to low why arn't many buying them?



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Bellway PLC
16 November 2006


BELLWAY p.l.c.

BARKING REACH UPDATE


Bellway p.l.c. is delighted with the decision from the Planning Committee of
Barking and Dagenham Council, made on 15th November 2006, that it has passed a
resolution to grant planning permission for Barking Riverside Limited to develop
a 180 hectare site at Barking Reach in the Thames Gateway. The permission is
subject to confirmation from the Mayor of London and the Secretary of State for
the Department for Communities and Local Government.



Barking Riverside Limited. is a joint venture between Bellway p.l.c. and English
Partnerships and is set to become one of the largest regeneration projects in
the U.K. The resolution to grant paves the way for the development of a new
mixed use community in east London comprising 10,800 homes, of which
approximately 50% will be solely developed by Bellway, together with schools,
community facilities and enhanced transport links, including ultimately an
extension to the Docklands Light Railway.



The proposals will now progress through to the next stage of the planning
process and once all permissions have been secured it is hoped that development
will start in 2008.



For further information contact John Watson or Alistair Leitch on 0191 2170717.





Ends




This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange





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2006 MoneyAM

Something has lit a fire under this today.

Al
Nice rise, when you said bbc I went and bought ITV !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!