< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

bought a few more today as this geographic expansion makes AFR more attractive to any potential bidder.

Not sure a t/o for AFR is on the cards. as the deal they have with the Nigerian Govt (via FHN) is unique to them & is unlikely to be transferable to another party.

Broker note (part of) from Credit Suisse:
"Proposed Black Marlin Energy acquisition is a divergence from core strategy. Although growth via acquisitions remains central to the Afren story, we do not feel that an all share deal to add a fragmented portfolio of frontier exploration assets is attractive to current shareholders. Following $326m of equity issuance in 2009 (25% of current market cap), this divergence from Afrens core strategy may not be taken positively by the market in our view.
We now set our target price at a 20% discount to NAV to reflect the uncertainty we have in company strategy prior to first production and cash flow from the Ebok field. Target price decreases to 100p and we downgrade to Neutral citing preference for other E&Ps with similar discounts to NAV. Our EPS estimates for 2010-11E decrease 8% to 17p and 55p respectively.
We are not yet convinced of the logic behind the deal. Afren was established with a strategy to take advantage of Nigerias drive towards indigenous oil production, with first mover advantage for accessing and commercialising undeveloped resources. The deal activity that we had been looking forward to was the acquisition of satellite fields around the company's key Ebok development in Nigeria. As such, we feel that exposure to high-risk frontier exploration in East Africa is a divergence."

Broker note from RenCap:
" (2 June), Afren said it had reached an agreement to acquire Black Marlin Energy Holdings Ltd, in an all-share transaction that values Black Marlin at CAD106.5mn ($102mn), and for which Afren will issue 76.8mn shares. Completion of the deal requires shareholder approval from both companies and it is expected to close in late September. Black Marlins management, which holds 55% of the companys shares, has entered into irrevocable undertakings to support and vote in favour of the transaction, and has agreed on a one-year lock-up on the Afren shares.
We see the following positives: 1) In addition to Black Marlin, Afrens management has said it remains on track to explore further acquisitions in Nigeria, where we believe it can create better value. Given news of the Black Marlin deal, we would not be surprised if a further acquisition were to use its First Hydrocarbon Nigeria subsidiary. 2) We see this acquisition as very cheap on an EV/boe basis. Afren will add 1,287mnboe of net unrisked prospective resources in the portfolio, and this is likely to increase to 1,739mnboe with the expected increase of working interest in some of the assets. Even if we apply only a 5% chance of success, the total consideration of $102mn suggests a purchase price of $1.59/boe, significantly lower than Afrens current multiple of $2.52. 3) Black Marlin provides its own seismic services.
We see the following negatives: 1) Despite Black Marlins attractive price tag, we would not factor in any value from its high-risk/high-reward exploration plays. We think Afrens ability to convert low-risk Nigerian development projects into near-term cash flow is its main value driver. 2) In our view, the company has not performed well with its high-risk exploration plays in the past, so we think investors will demand tangible results before attributing value to these exploration assets.
Our conclusion. Given our 2011E P/CFPS valuation approach, and our view that Afrens high-risk exploration plays carry only option value for the company, we have cut our target price on the stock to GBP1.25, from GBP1.35, as a result of the share dilution and the fact that the acquired assets will not contribute to 2011 cash flow. Given our view of 36% upside potential and the increased option value, we reiterate our BUY rating. We have also revised our EPS/CFPS estimates (adjusted for the share dilution and our new 2010 Brent price forecast).

Nice posts once again Harrycat...the sp just can't seem to get going...my hope of 150p before end 2010 looks way off...still time but not so sure now as it just cannot clear this pound barrier....

I don't like RenCap's negatives. 'No value added from an acquisition????' So less cash & little chance in the immediate future of BME adding any value. I don't currently hold, but, regardless of their BUY rating, I still think there is more downside to come.

Crumbs, I hope not.....this is the second biggest holding in my portfolio....I think some rise will come when the first well is completed...perhaps then it shall leave the 100p level behind...but then again, nothing is sure...

Harry you should know by now when brokers say buy they have stock to sell and when they say sell they want to buy stock on the cheap, don't get taken in by them.

Do you think this is a sell then Halifax....I'm open to all views....

rf as far as we are concerned nothing has changed, the deal to acquire Black Marlin will not be concluded until september by which time we expect some positive newsflow from Ebok.

Thanks..good...will stay put...

h, I'm not particularly interested in broker's 'Buy' or 'Sell' recommendations as I think you are probably correct that they have their own agenda, but I have yet to see a totally positive broker report. As AFR are now in the FTSE250, brokers seem to take much more interest (obviously), so on that basis I assume their research is much more thorough. They all seem to think BME is a negative step for 2010 and seem to be recommending other E&P Co's as better value (& potential value).
[Cr Sui: "Valuation: Although Afren trades at a 26% discount to our NAV of 125p,
based on $80 oil, we have a preference for Premier Oil (OP, TP 1,561p) and
Dana Petroleum (OP, TP 1,503p) where we see similar discounts to NAV.]

Harry BME is not at this stage important , EBOK certainly is very important, lets wait and see the next RNS.

Earlier this week, the Nigeria-focused oil and gas exploration and production group Afren agreed to buy Black Marlin Energy of Canada in a deal that will see it expand in east Africa. Yesterday Afren's shares fell 1.45p, or 1.6 per cent, to 90.5p after Credit Suisse said the takeover was "a divergence" from the company's core strategy.

"We are not yet convinced of the logic behind the deal," the broker said, downgrading the stock from "outperform" to "neutral" and revising its target price from 131p to 100p.

"The deal activity that we had been looking forward to was the acquisition of satellite fields around the company's key Ebok development in Nigeria," the broker explained in a note to clients.

"As such, we feel that exposure to high-risk frontier exploration in east Africa is a divergence."

http://www.independent Todays, The Independent

Good AGM ,worth reading the statement..

Can't see any reason for getting in here yet:
"StockMarketWire.com
Afren expects significant production growth with the start-up of the Ebok field in October.

The firm said 2009 and the first half of 2010 had been a period of continued growth and delivery.

Net production averaged 22,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2009.

In Nigeria, gross production at the Okoro field averaged 18,800 bopd, exceeding pre start-up expectations with stable production maintained in Ce d'Ivoire.

And the firm says expects significant production growth with the start up of the Ebok field in October at an initial expected rate of 15,000 bopd, increasing to 35,000 bopd by year-end. "

You would think they'd be going up by now .

"Can't see any reason for getting in here yet" ,

i dont know why you would say that HARRY.

Because there is nothing to add to it's value until October (Ebok as per post #1056) & also the BME acquisition is considered to be a negative step by brokers (also adding no value until 2011 at the earliest).

harry this just proves how short sighted brokers are and how little they can be trusted to give sensible opinion to investors, best to DYOR.