Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Only 4 more working days to my plan B, or maybe plan H

Jeff, Whats about plan AMS ? or Bluewater Coffee plan....

Spacie, plan Bluewater will be soon, one more week here then Im a free man

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The embattled U.K. pound still finds favor with Jim O'Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS).

"We remain bullish for the pound against the euro and the dollar," said the London-based O'Neill in an email interview Friday. "I think the market is exaggerating all these issues for the pound this week."

The pound slid against many major rivals Friday following worse-than-forecast growth data for last quarter and after the government's forecast of surging debt supply and widening budget deficit raised concern that the nation's triple-A credit ratings may be downgraded.

In recent trading Friday morning, the pound dropped to $1.4685 from $1.4740 late Thursday.

Despite the pound's weakness, Goldman Sachs said the currency will strengthen to $1.73 versus the U.S. dollar in six months and further advance to $1.86 in 12 months. The euro will weaken to GBP0.84 in six months and slide further to GBP0.78 in 12 months, according to Goldman.

Investors fret about the U.K.'s plans to borrow an added GBP606 billion ($877.25 billion) over the next four years and worried that even the government's own gloomy budget forecast - which sees it running large deficits through the year 2017 - may be too optimistic. Complicating the picture: The government itself must face re-election by June of next year, casting doubt on its promises to ultimately get its finances under control.

Earlier Friday, Standard & Poor's said its analysts are examining the details of the budget. A spokesman for the company said its ratings are constantly under review, but its examination of the budget isn't part of a formal process that will lead to a ratings decision. Ratings agency Moody's Investors Service said Friday that it isn't reviewing the U.K. government's credit rating for a possible downgrade.

O'Neill argued that there is "no new information for the markets from the [U.K.] fiscal situation this week" compared with last November's Pre-Budget Report.

As for Friday's meeting of Group of Seven finance minister and central bank officials in Washington, O'Neill said he doesn't think there will be anything new regarding currencies in the group's communique due later in the day. He didn't elaborate.

In terms of market movements, currencies have come off the extreme levels seen in previous months of this financial crisis. Notably, volatility has declined and intraday movements are occurring in narrower ranges. This leaves little reason for leaders to lean on one currency or another, market participants said.

Hils / Trebs

Not that I'm thinking about purchasing an EA, but I've been doing a little research and wondered what you thought about the basic tenets of this post (lifted from a FX website). I wouldn't be surprised if the poster is the EA designer!

pth

"I purchased Avonko because I am exceedingly comfortable with the indicators, its track record, its design team, and its ease of use. The most compelling reason I can give for using Avonko for automated FX trading centers around the inherent logic of the system. I find it hard to blindly follow a system which I do not understand - any system which is fraught with too many moving parts falls into this category for me.

On that note, this system is reliant on a simple trend-breakout strategy. It is designed for consistency and reliability. And please remember, backtested results are non-discretionary, meaning they do not take into account the manner in which you are instructed to trade with the system.

The design team advises (and they are exceedingly helpful via email) that you trade the system only on non-news days (no scheduled high impact economic releases) - and abiding by this "no news days" mantra yields returns far in excess of those supposed by the backtest.

The problem with complicated systems build around a plethora of indicators is that once the market dynamics change even slightly, affecting the robustness of but one indicator, your entire system is effectively garbage. Give anyone with a stats and coding background five days and they can devise an EA which appears to be 90% accurate - this is called curve fitting. It's very easy to develop a system that "would have worked" but it's very difficult to put together a host of indicators that will continue to work going forward.

This is why I like Avonko - it is trend breakout... not a whole bunch of unstable indicators. It is easy to understand, and easy to apply effectively if you follow the clear instructions. I have even expounded a bit on the instructions here to give those who are new to forex a good rule of thumb for when to trade the system.

For my part, I believe there are many systems out there that work. But those who are new to forex fall victim to a few fallacies...

1) The more indicators you have in a system, the better it must be

2) The more often you trade, the better


If you exercise enough mental strength to avoid getting whipsawed by these faulty beliefs, there can be a lot of money to be made in fx trading and system trading. And when you find something that works, stick to it."

The poster probably is the designer, pth.

My real observation is that the whole concept of automated trading is that it's non-discretionary, so any automated system that you don't turn on at certain times or on certain days is therefore discretionary and the whole thing becomes a contradiction in terms.

I've also got mixed feelings about letting the users know how the system works. Most people resort to automated systems either because they don't know how to trade themselves or they haven't got time to trade themselves or because they feel that having a multitude of automated systems on the go at once is an effective way of introducing stability to the balance curve. Of those 3 categories, groups 2 and 3 probably couldn't care less how it works and a little knowledge could be a dangerous thing for the first group.

"The secret to creativity is knowing how to hide your sources." - Albert Einstein

Well I'm in group 2 with a smattering of danger. Trouble is, I watch and am often sooo tempted - which usually ends in tears.

That's my point exactly and it relates to trading what you think rather than what you see. If you know how it works, temptation will always get in the way.

Emotion will grab you by the short and curlies and twist and tug at them till you can't stand the pain any longer. A computer will just stick to the rules and doesn't understand pain and emotion.

That's why I recommend a Brazilian!

:o)

Training as we speak-any volunteers?!

From TraderTom
A tradeable wedge is setting up on the 240 min chart on Sterling Dollar. The Sterling Pound weak against major currencies. There is a potential 400 point move in this, and I am trying to find a suitable entry this morning in the live room.

Is anyone going to trader Tom's seminar tonight?

No, I am in Brussels. Whilst I know of Tom H I just came across his website today. Do you follow him?

Errrrrrrr. Is Trader Tom the Danish guy who talks about moon cycles and all that? If so, it's entertaining stuff but total cr@p.

Anyway, it's Barca Chelsea tonight.

Jeffmack, I don't follow but am interested in following his trading posts.

Hilary, ask Ruth who Tom is :O)

H, dont say that or Ruth will be very very upset, I think she still fancies the bald one ;-)

I agree with you, Tom H is a really nice bloke but all that star and moon stuff ......

He might have been the inspiration for a well know trading system....

Trader Tom is indeed Tom H.

Jeff, looks as though your boss got a bit of a hard time from his shareholders ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8023459.stm

Yes, saw it on the news over here. I guess they wont mind as they finally got the result they wanted.

Was Master Tom expecting a 400 pip drop in cable then? Not quite happened has it!

Going back to pth's 10585 post and the subsequent discussion about leave the EA on the machines alone, Winalot has been running three cable longs for me starting on Friday. I was underwater for most of Monday and a little less yesterday. They've all finally closed out today for +124, +113 and +89. I was beginning to think I should close them out manually for roughly net zero last night and start afresh, but "keep the faith" seems to be the message.

Hallelujah Brother. And don't forget as well that it took a fourth one overnight which it closed earlier for another 80 or so.

:o)