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Daily FX Report
Tuesday 25th August 2009
Quiet Asian session in Currencies with little data out overnight. Most action seen in USDJPY as first point of talk was Nikkei article that Japan-US 3 month Libor flipped for the first time in 16 years with JPY Libor 0.002% higher than USD yesterday. The Nikkei paper reported this as YEN positive and USDJPY dropped to 93.92. USDJPY support now starting 93.40 with crucial technical support at 93.00 with a clear break of this level could see us make a run lower. AUDJPY also attracted interest overnight as Asian traders targeted 78.50 level with risk appetite diminishing as shanghai was 2.5% down. AUDJPY dropped to 78.44 before bouncing during Asian lunchtime. EURUSD trading was very quiet with a range of 1.4274/1.4309. Market moves were dictated by EURJPY selling on weaker stocks in Asia. Also a quiet night for GBPUSD with GBPJPY weighing early on and cable falling to 1.6383 but otherwise trading sideways.

I am still trading Fx but been on holiday

Daily FX Report
Thursday 27th August 2009
Night started off with Nikkei reporting on J-HIA that some Japanese companies are planning to repatriate profits kept abroad to take advantage of the tax exemption on dividends from overseas units.
USDJPY has had an offered feel to it through out a quiet night trading from a high of 94.30 to 93.58. This was also helped as the Nikkei was down 1.5%. 93.50-93.00 still good support with 93.00 level still being key still. Topside resistance starts at 94.70 and stronger at 95.45/55
EURUSD tested 1.4200 level yesterday and now market will be looking to break this level to take out short term longs. The next support comes in at 1.4180 and again at 1.4145/50. The resistance topside starts at 1.4280 and again at 1.4315.
GBPUSD still trades heavy with no real bounce. Going through 1.6200 could open up 1.6070 area and we will get more direction from the US GDP numbers today. Overnight range has been 1.6211/1.6250.
Overall moves offering no real conviction in Asia and below is a chart of USDJPY with still levels to watch 93.40/93.00.

does anyone use IB to trade for forex?.

if so why are they always above the price action? their price on gbp/jpy is always about 4 points above the e-signal price and sometimes i have limit orders in th ebook and the price action goes pas them before they are filled...

it is all very weird...anyone got any ideas? it makes systems trading a bloody nightmare

Daily FX Report
Friday 28th August 2009
The Asian timezone was another quiet session with most currencies trading sideways.
USDJPY still holding 93.00/93.20 support with topside resistance at 94.20 and seems to be stuck in a tight range.
AUDUSD started with some early support at 0.8380 but at the moment 0.8430 double top is holding and we were unable to breach yesterdays highs of 0.8417.
EURUSD started at 1.4341 at the beginning of the nigh and traded up to 1.4377 as Asia saw early buying of EURJPY.
GBPUSD saw little interest as it is being driven by EURGBP so dragging behind any big EURUSD moves. Resistance topside a 1.6330 and 1.6380 at the moment with downside support levels being 1.6130/1.6070.
Below is a chart for AUDUSD. While there seems good resistance ahead of 0.8430 likelihood is we could have a run higher if this level breaks testing up to 0.8475.

Quiet here.

A New 'Carry-Trade' Currency? U.K. Pound Emerges as Possibility l

Stereo

Same time, different place :-)

Tobin Tax to be on the G20 Pittsburgh agenda.

This is total cr@p imo. It will never be implemented.

Hil, you're right. It won't happen. What's more, it doesn't address the real problem.

Where is US Dollar going?
Posted by Henry Liu on September 21, 2009 under Currency Trading Tips | Be the First to Comment

Market has been very unforgiving to the USD lately as the greenback slips into further weakness; as a matter of fact, the more recovery we see, more reason for USD to weaken, at least until Bernanke starts rate hiking cycle

Let me explain,

USD is considered as the primary safe-haven currency as the US Treasuries is The Safest Financial Instrument in the world, as it is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States, or the worlds largest economy. Needless to say, if US Treasury defaults, it probably wont matter because the world must be in deep doo-doo for that to happen. Case in point, remember what happened with Lehman Brothers and the aftermath of the world economy? Consider that and multiply by 10,000 or more when and if the United States collapses, not only China, Japan, and all of Europe will go with it, leaving civilization back to the stone ages where we barter for commodities, I think the entire world monetary system will
disappear

Now looking at the recent decline of USD versus the optimism in the market, it does not take a genius to see that the market is going opposite direction. That is because the borrowing cost for USD is the lowest among all major currencies, putting even the JPY at about 6 basis points more expensive to borrow than the USD. (3-month Libor rate for JPY is 0.35% and for USD is 0.29%) Thus making USD the new carry currency of the world.

So what is likely to happen? I think well see a gradual and steady decline of the greenback in the mid to long term. As the national debt accumulates under Obama administration, a weaker dollar is probably not a bad thing making USD weaker by 10% in a year, translates to a deduction of the national debt by 10%; you gotta admit it, it is an ingenius plan (of course, the long-term outlook is still going to be bad, but the jury is still out on that)

So what is the outlook for USD? I think unless Bernanke starts to hike rates, expect to see USD remain weak as there is no reason fundamentally for a stronger USD. And when do we expect to see Bernanke hike rates? Well, the short answer is at least the 2nd half of 2010 if not early 2011. So expect to see USD under pressure for the next 8 to 12 months minimum.

Henry Liu

What spooked cable at 8.30 am this morning ?

Merv opening his big mouth again.

Ta Merv :-)

Kerching!

Do any currency guru's on here have a view on the Lat about to de value ?

It would be a kick in the Baltics, I guess.

:o)

May be of interest to FX traders, has the Holly Grail been discovered? (No) :>)
Would it work?

I'm giving this a go today.