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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Tellon - 29 Apr 2004 10:23 - 1081 of 11056

Morning All,

Thank you for your comments there Hill. Nice to see how you trade there. I had one question do you have a maximum limit on the number of units your trade. I.E once you reach 4 units you are loaded and place no more?

Im currently Short Euro 11833 from last night.

I dont see to much action till around 13:30. Myself..

foale - 29 Apr 2004 10:24 - 1082 of 11056

Thanks for replying Hilary...interesting reading

Wow that is an impressive performance
I will be reading your comments even more closely now

I have started to look more at FX as things have got quite boring on the CFD/shares side atm

Cable at the very bottom of its range this am
A break of todays lows or failire to is what I am focusing on at the moment

I now trade only Cable..as concntrating on one is plenty to worry about
and the Eur/Usd does not seem so volatile

I do like to bank my profits though
though I will look to entering longer positions at perceived price extremes

Once again great performance Hilary

hilary - 29 Apr 2004 10:55 - 1083 of 11056

Tellon,

Regarding adding to winning positions, it's a strategy that I'm still trying to hone.

The theory is quite simple. Cable has a 1:200 margin requirement. To begin with I increased my position size by 50% every time the position moved 100 pips in my favour. That way, I would only use margin which had been freed by the position moving into profit and wouldn't be calling on other margin. It's called Pyramiding. For example:

Open long 10/pip at 17100
Add 5/pip at 17200
Add 7.50/pip at 17300
Add 11.25/pip at 17400
and so on .....

It then occured to me that the largest positions were weighted towards the end of the move and the possible loss from the last position could significantly erode the gains from the early positions. I then experimented with setting a size limit on the later positions so that the trade did not become too "top heavy". I've also experimented in other ways with adding at closer intervals and not adding at all once the postion has moved more than 150 pips in my favour.

I don't think there's a right or a wrong. It's what you feel most comfortable with.

edit: I also favour leaving limit orders to add at the prescribed levels. It removes more of the emotion, imo.

Cloudbase - 29 Apr 2004 10:56 - 1084 of 11056

Hilary......WoW......thats one very impressive rasult.
Have traded Cable in a small way but only on a scalping basis
which i find very difficult, if its not too cheeky of me could
you give us some indicators on chart settings that your looking at,
understand if you don't want to.
Keep up the good work, again, Very impressive.
cheers Steve.

Tellon - 29 Apr 2004 11:39 - 1085 of 11056

Hil,

I have read about a group of futures traders who add to there postions depending how volitle the market currently is. Allowing for whipsaw in volatile times and capturing tight progits in non volitile times.

The formula can be confusing but theres an example at the bottom

TR (True Range) = Maximum (H-L, H-PDC,PDC - L)
N = (19 * PDN + TR) / 20

Where PDN = Previous Days N & PDC = Previous days close

Start with a 20 day moving avearge of TR since on the 1st day you need a PDN.

Starting postion = 1%(Or your own risc) of Account / N X Dollars Per Point ($1 on cable mini)

This would be the number of contracts traded on a day.

Then increasing in size would be at 1/2 N intervals to a maximum of 4 units per futures market.

I.E today, (USD/GBP) (With a smaller time scale (Days not months target)

I calculate PDN as 180 (I didnt do a full 20day just wanted to give an example)

N = ((19 * 180) + 271) / 20 = 184.55

So 4:1 (Reasonable Levrage) for 10000 = 40000
Mini Contracts $1 a point

Unit = (1% 40000)/(184.55 * 1) = 2.1 (rounded to nearest whole number) = 2 a pip

So
GBP/USD
N = 184.55
Your System Sell or Buy signal say it said sell = (Say Now - 1.7635)

First Unit Added (2 point) 17635
2nd = 17635 - 1/2 N or 17543
3rd = 17543 - 1/2 N or 17451
4th (final) = 17451 - 1/2 N or 17359

Now if you only ever want to risc 2% of account levarage all you do is put
stop loss at 2N Above latest entry. I.E stop moves down as entrys
move down.

4th Entry 17359 (Stop at 17727) Obvioulsy this is a real 8% risc due to levarage

By using an entry system that reacts to volatility you will enter tighter on a quite time and wider at more volatile times. with stops being tighter or wider
capturing a higher percentage of a move.

Sorry if it doesnt make sense just part of a money managemnt system imtrying to
implement.








foale - 29 Apr 2004 11:47 - 1086 of 11056

Hilary do you have a position at the moment
I am still batting from the short side

foale - 29 Apr 2004 13:19 - 1087 of 11056

Was that the final test on Cable b4 the decent to 1.7500
ie the spike up to 1.7625


Lets see if it starts to move 3-4 mins b4 the figures...like we have seen for the last few big announcements

foale - 29 Apr 2004 16:28 - 1088 of 11056

amazing huge moves in Forex and no posts...

Hilary...what do you make of these figures...

foale - 29 Apr 2004 16:29 - 1089 of 11056

amazing huge moves in Forex and no posts...

Hilary...what do you make of these figures...

foale - 29 Apr 2004 16:29 - 1090 of 11056

amazing huge moves in Forex and no posts...

Hilary...what do you make of these figures...

foale - 29 Apr 2004 16:34 - 1091 of 11056

amazing...all thisa action in FX and no posts...

Bullshare - 29 Apr 2004 17:33 - 1092 of 11056

test

TullettJ (MoneyAM) - 29 Apr 2004 17:55 - 1093 of 11056

testing.

hilary - 29 Apr 2004 18:25 - 1094 of 11056

Foale,

I caught the down move yesterday, but I closed out late yesterday of my own volition and I've been out of the market today as I've had other things to do.

As I see it, the downtrend from yesterday is still intact even after the US data. My strategy now is to draw a falling resistance line between the high of yesterday and the high of today and then to buy the break. Will it break in afternoon US trade or overnight Asian trade? Who knows? I'm in 2 minds whether or not to leave a limit buy or simply to wait and see in the morning. The holiday on Monday is a bit of an intangible too.

As for the news itself, it lessens the likelihood of an imminent rise in US rates and with a likely rise from the MPC next week we should see some upside over the coming days from Cable, imo.

Tellon,

That strategy is too much for me to get my head around atm. I'll look at it though.

Tellon - 29 Apr 2004 19:09 - 1095 of 11056

Hil,

I think its a clever way to enter new trades in different volatility

Foale,

I was short as you know (From my previous post) so got wipped out at 13:30. -75pips. I tightened my stop loss right before data came out just incase (was 167)

Went to the dentist after that, I dont think its worth going long so just waiting for the dust to settle. IMO 4.1 was a good GDP. Higher than bush administartion expected and not to big a jump. Nice longterm sustanable growth. That leads to inflation and intrest rate rises. Personaly I thought it was a reason to buy the dollar.

No entry till 9am for me tomorrow. As for asia I think its a 3day holiday? so there should be quite low volume overnight.

foale - 30 Apr 2004 08:19 - 1096 of 11056

I got caught out ofter the figures yesterday
Was not expecting Cable to be so strong...
Gave away the mornings gains

Tellon you might be right re yesterdays figures
and this ams price action maybe the market reassessing
yesterday afternoons move

That line of yours Hilary starting to look like resistance is holding
and dollar bulls reasserting themselves...

As usual Fridays figures awaited with trepidation

hilary - 30 Apr 2004 08:24 - 1097 of 11056

Morning guys,

I suspect that it'll move up to have another crack at that line and push cleanly through it in the near future.

Tellon - 30 Apr 2004 08:41 - 1098 of 11056

Morning All...

Hil,

You refering to Resistance or Support line?

hodgins - 30 Apr 2004 08:48 - 1099 of 11056

small long here, I only sb
may add if feel appropriate?

hilary - 30 Apr 2004 09:21 - 1100 of 11056

Hi Tellon,

I was referring to the falling resistance line taking out the highs of Wednesday and Thursday.
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