ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

He who graphs last graphs longest!

(gr)arf (gr)arf

SD

marketmaker

Thanks for posting graphs as they are quite hard to locate. What exactly are daily reach and traffic ranking. It appears that ASOS are getting to grips with Next for first placce - they were way behind in 4th or 5th place a year ago. Your earlier post quoted, I think, 28% year on year whereas I believe that should be over 100%.

SD: you remind me of my Labrador, Honey, bouncing about and barking when excited! Didn't get your comment about 'City' - unless it was poor old Manchester City, suffering under Kevin as we did at Newcastle, although it was at least an exciting ride.

Eric

Eric

It was that old Turkish hotspot, Perspica City, I was talking about - see you rpost 1136.

LOL

woof woof

SD

stockdog

Nice one! Apologies for not having the perspicacity to pick it up! You're quite a pet to provide this entertainment! lol! Eric

In this weeks Money Week

The real path to dotcom profits

The chief difference between Asos and so many of its dotcom
peers is that its not a struggling survivor~ says The Independent:
the company benefited substantially from being a late runner
in the madcap internet days~ Unlike other start-ups, Asos only
raised 2.8m at its float, something which has given
management discipline, making them invest wisely, buy
conservatively and generally keep a lid on costs: agrees the FT
Its broad spread of more than 500 suppliers lets it keep its
prices low Ithe typical purchase is 37) and change its online
offering at speed. We always aim to be a couple of quid
cheaper than Topshop and stock what people want before
the shops, says Robertson.This fast, snappy approach boosts
sales, and it also cuts risk, says John Stevenson of Shore
Capital. They are not buying in seasons and only buy a
relatively small amount of stock, so they dont have the mark-
down risk that other retailers haves
In short, Asos perfectly melds the two biggest phenomena in
retail: celebrity style and fast fashion, saysThe DailyTelegraph.
But can it really live up to its extraordinary share price, up from
5p in January 2004 to 78.5p? Back in May, with the price standing
at 29p, some analysts were already counselling caution, says
The Independent. After all, profits, projected at around 1.3m
this year, are still comparatively modest. Nonetheless, with
survey after survey demonstrating the growing strength of
internet sales, Asos undoubtedly has an exciting future~
32 MONEYWEEK 18 February 2005profile

This week: Nick Robertson of AsSeenOnScreen.com
The man behind the best-performing shares
in the UK market

The best-performing UK share of 2004
was not an oil stock or a bank, says
The Guardian. It was Asos, an Aim-
traded online fashion business that saw
its share price rocket 15-fold. The site,
originally known as AsSeenOnScreen
.com, is the second most popular clothing
site in the UK after Next. It targets young
shoppers who want to dress like their
favourite celebs, and unlike many hot
stocks, says The Daily Telegraph, Asos
has actually produced results: it bucked
the dismal Christmas retail trend to
increase sales by 70% over November
and December. We are Topshop with
marketing spin, says co-founder
Nick Robertson.

Launching against the odds
Robertson, 37, has retailing in his blood.
The great-grandson of the doyen of gents
outfitters, Austin Reed, he grew up in
suburban Surrey and left school at 16.
After a stint in advertising, he teamed up
with partner Quentin Griffiths in 1996 to
launch the forerunner of Asos,
Entertainment Marketing. The duos
main line of business was product
placement, getting Carling beers seen on
TV dramas, for instance. But when they
read in a US magazine that the producers
of Friends had received 28,000 calls about
a lamp that had appeared on the show,
they decided to turn the business on its
head. We stumbled across the fact that
there was a growing demand for things
shown on TV~ says Robertson.
They launched the AsSeenOnScreen
website in June 2000, with backing from
Robertsons family
primarily his brother
Nigel, a serial
entrepreneur whose
interests included
Scoot.com. The timing
was hardly propitious: a
month earlier Boo.com,
the internet clothing
retailei had imploded.

The move into fashion
In its early months the
site, set up to satisfy
wannabe cravings,
concentrated mainly on
homewares, such as Delia-endorsed
ramekins, says The Independent.
The breakthrough came when they hired
former Topshop buyer Lorri Benn.
The first product she bought was a shirt
like Leonardo DiCaprios in The Beach,
says Robertson. We quickly realised that
fashion sold better than ducks on the
wall and lamps. Benns real forte was
spotting the next celebrity trend and
buying the clothes before Posh Spice or
Kylie actually wore them, and word
quickly spread that AsSeenOnScreen was
also one of the cheapest fashion sites
around. Its a trusted formula, says
Robertson: Heres a celebrity wearing a
lovely dress. You cant afford the original,
so heres where you can get it cheaper.
In October 2001, the partnership tempted
fate once more by floating on Aim as
shares were headed towards the bottom
of the worst bear market for a
generation, says The Daily Telegraph.
Barn-storming success
In less than four years, Asos has become
the website everyone is raving about,
says The Times. In fact, Robertson may
be an as-yet unrecognised genius of our
time. The sites total registered users
(mostly 16-34-year-old women) now
number 500,000. Profits and the share
price have risen as fast as Jodie Marshs
hemlines, says the FT. Quentin Griffiths
left the firm shortly before the share price
gathered real momentum, but Robertson
has no intention of cashing in just yet,
says The Telegraph. In his sober suits and
impeccable ties, he cuts a strange figure
among the rails of distressed denims and
vintage tops. Indeed, rarely has a chief
executive looked more out of place in his
own company. Nonetheless, he seems
well and truly to have caught the bug.
Im still very ambitious. We have a
formula here that works and I think we
could go much further.

Nice overture Paul1812 to ASOS's imminent doubling of SP

SD

SD

I live in hope

P

Paul

Grrrr..eat post. I would have though that stockdog would have been drooling all the way to his gravy tin! Or did someone take his biscuits!

ASC will take off again within the month - this is a great buying opportunity; no news but just imagine what they are up to in the background. meanwhile the hitwise figures reamin fantastic. We must be looking at 3m-4m net pbt this year or a pe in region of 20 which is rediculously low for a company growing as fast.

A quick reminder of the "lemmingsinvestor" post. "The model seems to be infinitely scaleable. Not only can it go on growing for years as people switch to broadband to exploit the convenience, and devlop confidence in this method of shopping, but overhead costs are relatively fixed. It is mainly the cost of buyers' salaries and the increase in sales support which moves with volume - then from time to time add the cost of moving to a larger warehouse as will happen this Summer. these cost lumed together as Administration costs in the accounts have fallen from 57% two years ago to 46% in H1 and are almost certainly a few points lower currently in H2." "The numbers registered are not yet half a million. So less than 10% of the target age group has been reached. With the company's model repeatedly scaleable, we can confirm that the management is amazingly sanguine on the prospect of growth however large. For all these reasons we believe that this will become a very large company."

I hereby declare that, with the exception of short-term trading, I will hold a minimum of 25% of my share portfolio in ASC for the foreseeable future, Amen - so be it!

Eric

Eric

I'm with you all the way on this one

Paul

Eric

Love the sentiment, but please don't feel obliged should the market go against you - we'll all understand. On similar terms I pledge my 3.3% (must be a little bit wider spread than you, but then no short term trading positions).

Infinitely scaleable - wouldn't mind that as my epitaph! But then I expect you've climbed every mountain.

SD

Grrrrrrrr! Now we're onto the sound of music and can't stand that. sd: 3.3% of ASC is, let me calculate, worth about 1.6M; think we'd all pledge anything for that sum! You should meet my lab. Honey who is on heat at the moment!

Oh, and ASC are back down again. Looks like a bit more shorting action, particularly early in the day. Not a problem; think of the tanking they'll get when the next bit of super news is floated. Mind, I agree, 'infinitely scaleable' is going a bit far, I would have been satisfied with 'massively scalable' myself.

Eric

Eric
Thanks for the offer of Honey, but I generally prefer to make my own arrangements in that department!
Yours
the infinitely scaly bull
SD

bull terrier presumably! Or is it loads of bull? or is it bull-shit - i.e. as opposed to cow dung? Or is it a scalywag - which bring us back to...

EWR

little rise today so far sp new buy note issued today has anyone seen this,any new info in this note.cheers woodie

thanx to radarlove on advfn for this:

(From Richard Ratner of 'Seymour Pierce')

ONE AREA OF RETAILING WHICH ISN'T ALL GLOOM

Time to look again at the shares of ASOS as they have come back about 20p from their peak.

At the time of the post-Christmas trading statement (9 months to 31 December) sales of ASOS.com were up 71%. We believe that, despite a pretty awful January for most retailers, sales have continued to grow strongly.

In December, ASOS.com was in second place in the Hitwise chart for apparel and accessories. This position was maintained in January.

There was some disappointment that, despite sales forecasts going up, profit estimates have not increased. This is because the company was, and still is, operating from four warehouses.

However, we expect ASOS to move in the spring/early summer, to a new larger warehouse, although at present no contracts for a new property have been signed.

When this happens, this will make a huge difference, as at present the company is concentrating on ensuring that merchandise is delivered to the customer on time, despite the additional costs. In addition, the gross margin has been adversely affected by the emphasis on keeping stocks clean ahead of any move.

These are only short term factors and once a new warehouse is signed up and we know the net cost effects of this, we will be adjusting our estimates for next year.

The internet is an increasingly important area of retailing and ASOS, being both profitable and cash generative, is at the forefront of this. On anything other than a very short term view, the shares are a BUY.

marketmaker thanks for quick update just what is needed to calm fears.cheers woodie

marketmaker: thanks; very helpful and puts trading performance in perspective. The hitwise figures look very impressive. Do you know if the scale is the same for ASOS and Next; if so, ASOS are challenging for supremacy. What exactly is being measured on the two graphs? I wonder what the 'reaach' of SPs figures are.

Eric

Another effort to rise today only to fall back. Its as if someone is trying to sit on it; not drive it any lower but just stop it rising. I wonder if the shorters don't want to buy back so they just keep putting more into shorting positions. Could catch a cold doing that! Freezing outside. What happens if there is a lovely RNS bringing all the bulls rushing back in. The poor shorters trampled under foot! Feeling sorry for then; poor old evil! In fact I feel an article coming on, sympathetic to him! It wouldn't do if they became an extinct species, nor should we try to tame them, put them in cages. Life would be duller without them. Like tigers, and jackels and hyenas and warthogs.

Eric

Eric

My guess is there will be a further TA shortly after end of year 31st March. If that's good that's when the SP will move back into gear. But any time between now and then this may be anticipated. My next buy will be to top up on ASOS from this very comfortable, as you say consolidated, position. Been a bit busy on SEO and DEMG this last week or so, not to mention PGI newly bought Friday and 17% in profit by end of today - have a look.

SD

stockdog

Thanks for that but why is it that everybody recommends the shares after they have jumped rather than before. Like a dog who's got the cream, or is that the cat. OH yes, dogs worry bones and postmen! Bitten any postmen lately? Happy for ASC to wait till well through April. Have built a nice new position up but could use more SEO and NLR profits to add a few more. Its the secret really, to get your shares moving in interlocking waves; circulate your money and add to it everytime it goes round. In fact, sounds like NLR - what a recipe for making money; pity I hadn't got in sooner. Still, more to come from ASC, no doubt about it!

Eric