With the US subprime crisis spreading to Europe, shockwaves in Northern Rock which would spread to other banks, UK economy growth not looking healthy, increasing trade deficits, sharply rising mortgage costs, falling corporate profits and job cuts especially in the City, and as market turmoils escalates, housing price which shows a first drop of 2.6% (from Rightmove last month), this are the signs of the beginning of a housing crash. PROPERTY SHARES ARE A SELL!

The 340 million Westfield Derby development opened on 9 October 2007, presenting a dynamic mix of fashion, food and leisure in the heart of the city.

The new centre provides four new themed malls, over two retail levels anchored by Marks & Spencer and Debenhams. The introduction of more than 100 new shops has brought a vibrant mix of national and local fashion and lifestyle brands. Westfield Derby incorporates leading retailers Zara, Bershka, Topshop, Next, Monsoon, New Look, Dorothy Perkins, River Island and H&M.
They are spending another 330 mil around the city centre as well .
A 30 million 12-screen Cinema De Lux (opening Spring 2008) will provide a first-class customer entertainment experience adjacent to the 800-seat Eat Central, which will houses an innovative mix of international, national and local cuisine, creating an exciting lifestyle destination.

Excellent news for housing bears today and hopefully bad news for all the BTL dimwits in the country. ;-)))

But confusingly the opposite view on commercial property!!
What chance do the rest of us have when experts have such dramatically opposed views?

Commercial sector already falling, Alan, hence funds are demanding 3 month notice of withdrawals. It's been gonig on for a while. A wee bounce might be on.

Residential now on slippery slope IMO.

Some fund or other is predicting the bottom of the commercial market this morning.
Residential is undoubtedly facing problems, I just don't think they are of the magnitude some parties are talking about, Big Al.
Certainly we will see less activity and lower asking prices, but the actual sale prices will not fall as far as the bigger predictions suggest.
We are basing our view of a crash on following the USA lead, since we followed them on the credit crunch, but the USA had a very different housing background to us. We have seen steadily rising prices, not runaway rises like the USA.
3 Years ago, a friend of mine was making very good money on Florida property by day trading!!! No wonder there is a fair distance to fall. And the dollar is very weak.
IMHO there are 3 things causing this prediction of a crash. The credit squeeze (which will not last for ever, it must turn around soon), High oil prices which will fuel inflation (though OPEC are pumping money into raising the supply side, at last) and perceived high rates (though historically they are fairly low).
The credit squeeze is showing signs of recovery (Citibank and Abu Dhabi), Oil is starting to fall and has further to go when capacity increases as Opec want, and as credit becomes more liquid, margins over LIBOR will reduce cheapening rates regardless of what the MPC decide.
If employment remains high the housing market will suffer a short term fall and recover just as quickly. Just as perceived problems cause a fall, a perceived bottom causes a rise.
All IMO.
Alan

I have just shorted Bovis Homes BVS at 622p. Looks likely to go down further

This quote sums up my take on housing here, there and everywhere. I have bolded the critical word. ;-0

"the price of houses is more to do with supply and demand of credit"

".... its all reason enough to fear that we may be about to experience the most prolonged downturn in the housing market for 15 years or so."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/

The housing market in London is starting to show its seams. No doubt it will start to fall from now.

Meanwhile, across the pond today:

White House lowers '08 economic forecast:
"The housing market decline has been more significant than we expected," Edward Lazear, chairman of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, told reporters in a conference call.

US foreclosure filings up in October:
U.S. foreclosure filings nearly doubled in October from the same month last year, the latest sign many homeowners are falling behind on mortgage payments and increasingly losing their homes, according to a mortgage research company.

Federal National Mortgage Assoc Home prices fall 0.4 percent in Q3:
U.S. home prices marked a quarterly decline for the first time in 13 years in the third quarter, according to government data released Thursday that provide fresh evidence of the housing market slump.

It's coming here, it has to!!!!!

I think an intrest rate cut is on the cards .

'Cards' being the operative word here.
The only thing it'll boost maybe is credit card spending over the festive wotsit.
It won't make a blind bit of difference to mortgage holders or applicants - rates have already gone up because of LIBOR.

Indeed.

Additionally, they'll no longer lend to just any Tom, Dick, Harry or Choccy. ;-)))

Oh they will, Big Al.
Capitalism can almost be defined by saying that where there is a demand, someone will evolve to supply it!! The rates may not be as good and the underwriting a tad more cautious, but it will exist. And inevitably, as the boldest players make good money from a less competative, but equally profitable market, competition will be back to drive margins down and risks up.
It may be some considerable time yet, but it will come about, because demand for this type of loan will rise, and those facing repossession or unmanagable debts will pay whatever rate they need to in order to save their home or consolidate their monthlys so they can have a beer at the weekend.
Just IMO of course.
Alan

Times are hard choccy , are you still holding your bank shares ?

Alan - I think we always agree to disagree.

People have been going bankrupt, making IVAs and losing their homes at the highest rate in years for quite some time. Of course, you don't read about it in the papers yet. The only reason there is demand is because money is cheap. It's been as cheap as it was in the 60s. Unfotruantely the 70s happened next. ;-)))))

Yes but for every repossession that goes to auction, there is ten buyers bidding strong money for the property, strong demand will not go away unless we build 100,000 more starts a year for the next ten years...

Rubbish IMO. It's all a house of cards built on very cheap money that is becoming ever more expensive.

Do you really think in your wildest dreams that people will be able to take 6x salary at 8% when they've had it at 4.5% for 2-3 years. Get real.

Not sure about 8%, the only reason there is a slowdown is because of the delayed effect of 5 rate rises still biting, 5.75% is still low. The mistake by the BOE was by lowering the rate back down to 4.5% 2 years ago, when it was at 4.75, they fuelled the surge in prices which has led to the problems we face now...