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Buy Sunkar Resources (SKR) at 28p
Says James Faulkner of specialist small caps site WatsHot.com
Sunkar (SKR) was first tipped on WatsHot.com earlier this month at 23p. Since then, its share price has risen by over 21% in just 4 weeks! But small cap wizard James Faulkner, who edits WatsHot.com, believes there is still further to go.
Every month on WatsHot.com, James provides two brand new tips like this on small cap stocks where he sees fantastic potential. To get all these new tips (including a brand new one published yesterday) plus a daily column from James with the latest small cap news and rumours, join WatsHot.com now.
And here's why James believes Sunkar is still a "buy":
When BHP Billiton launched its bid for PotashCorp I flagged Sirius Exploration as a possible beneficiary of that action, it being the only UK-quoted potash company. Since then the shares have soared by almost 200%. And I know at least a couple of you have made a pretty penny on that play. BHP's move is a sure sign that the demand for food and, more importantly from an investor's point of view, the factors of food production are going to rise dramatically in the future. Investors looking to benefit from this trend should take a look at Sunkar Resources which owns the Chilisai deposit, one of the largest known phosphorite deposits in the Former Soviet Union with a resource of some 800 million tonnes of ore (10% grade). DAP (diammonium phosphate) is one of the key ingredients in fertilizers, and world prices began to rise recently. Upcoming initial results from a bankable feasibility study should help stir interest in the shares. Speculative buy.
NPK
It is becoming clear that having a mineral that is needed to increase yields and help feed the world's burgeoning population is potentially just as - if not more - strategically valuable than owning copper or iron, as our sister site Minesite observes:
"There is evidence that rock phosphate is becoming a strategic material for many countries, as pressure mounts to increase agricultural production to meet the needs of growing populations. Rock phosphate is a key ingredient in many fertilisers... [and] the price of fertilisers is building up again after having boiled over in 2008. Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium are the three ingredients that promote plant growth and, of these, the future supply of phosphorus is most in doubt, as two thirds of the world's known resources are in two countries - Morocco and China."
Chilisai - Location, location, location
Sunkar's 100%-owned Chilisai deposit is one of the largest known phosphorite deposits in the Former Soviet Union with a resource of some 800 million tonnes of ore at 10% P2O5. The project is located 500 kilometres from the source of low cost sulphur recovered from the North Caspian oil and gas operations (the importance of which is explained below) which is connected with the project by rail road. Local infrastructure is good - a power line, railroad and natural gas pipeline cross the licence area of the company.
Sunkar is well positioned in proximity to China, which is the main target market of the project (railroad tariff of the Kazakh National railroad operator is $20 per tonne from the deposit to the western China border). However, the company also intends to use part of the future output to supply captive local markets in Russia and Kazakhstan which are both World top-10 grain producers. Due to high reserves of the deposit and access to low cost sulphur the company believes that the highest value added opportunity lies in developing an integrated phosphate fertiliser manufacturing facility at the deposit site. This facility will have one of the lowest extraction costs per unit of P2O5 in the world.
Sunkar should be able to generate early cashflow through initially producing Direct Application Rock (DAR) which is simply concentrated to a grade of around 17% P2O5, finely ground and sold to local farmers. However, this is simply picking the low-hanging fruit. The longer term goal is to produce high grade fertilisers which can be sold into international markets - principally China. This is where the North Caspian oil and gas operations come in, as they produce vast quantities of waste sulphur which can be easily shipped to the project site. Sulphuric acid is used to react with the phosphorite concentrate to produce phosphoric acid, which is then neutralised with ammonia to produce DAP.
Recent Trading
Several events in recent months have laid the foundations for future success. In December 2009 a plant scale test undertaken by an independent consultant established that the the 17% concentrate can produce acid of a quality to make ammoniated phosphate fertilisers. According to the Florida-based consultant the results of the pilot plant programs exceeded initial expectations. This was followed up in January by the release of JORC estimates for 40% of the Chilisai licence area, which confirmed that the area contains more than sufficient resources for 20 years of ore extraction at a rate of 10 million tonnes per annum. Finally, the company secured GBP 10 million of equity line finance in June, thereby putting to bed any doubts over its near-term financial position (company also has c.$7 million cash and no debt). Significantly, subscriptions will be priced at a mere 6% discount to the market price and will take place at timings and intervals and in sizes determined by the company, thereby protecting shareholders from any unnecessary dilution.
Upcoming Catalysts
Engineering contractor SNC-Lavalin has commenced a Bankable Feasibility Study for the Chilisai project, with initial results due shortly (H2 2010) and final results due in the first half of 2011. This should de-risk the project and enable the company to secure long-term financing to ramp up production and develop the fertiliser manufacturing facility on site. There is also upside potential from reserves upgrades as the company continues to explore the 60% of the project not currently covered by the JORC estimate. After the BFS, the next major catalyst will be first sales of DAR. This shouldn't prove too much of a problem given that Kazakhstan itself is a major farming nation. Further along the line, Sirius Explorations' recent agreement with the largest Chinese fertiliser company highlights the potential there.
Sunkar has a potentially highly valuable project that is underpinned by a highly favourable economic and corporate activity backdrop. Research house GMP Resources values the company using a discounted cash flow model with a discount rate of 18%. It then further discounts the net present value of the project at a rate of 80%, arriving at a valuation of 75p per share - more than 160% upside from here. Speculative buy at 28p.
Key Data
EPIC: SKR
Market: AIM
Spread: 27p-29p
WatsHot.com offers two brand new tips each month, along with frequent updates, a daily column and weekend editorial from editor James Faulkner, plus technical analysis from Zak Mir. To get all this for as little as 73 a year (even less for t1ps.com members), join WatsHot.com now.
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