how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

Every time i think its gone too far for a long it goes further.
Every time i short it takes money off me. (except yesterday)

There should be a fall back after today so I will wait till the morning.
The hell with it - long the feb future.

I think I'm going to close my long DJ soon.

I finally closed my Long. Turned it into a really little short, so it has to go up a long way before I lose todays gains!. If it drops, then great it'll just add a bit extra!

Great to hear you're making money on the longs, snoball.

Unless your timing is perfect, I would expect the market
to take money off you, as you say, when you short.
You are going counter-trend when you short a rising
market and increase the odds against you.

You may be very well correct that the market is going higher,
but it's got to stop at some point and reverse trend, and
1050 S@P is one of the heavy resistance points that could
provide the catalyst.

I wouldn't want a fresh long until it had broken this
resistance and retested it as support.

Anyway, just a view, best you carry on making money your
way, you seem to be doing OK. :-)

Melnibone.

DJ Dow Jones News Highlights Top Stories Of The Day

TOP STORIES

STOCKS REBOUND; TECHS' OUTLOOK KEEPS LID ON NASDAQ

Dow recovers early losses, hitting new long-term bull market high, while Nasdaq recoups ground from much weaker levels but has trouble swallowing platefuls of negative news from chip and telecom firms. Lucent loses 5%. Among other decliners: Seagate, RF Micro and Advanced Micro.

LUCENT FALLS DESPITE POSTING PROFIT
Shares drop 5% as traders lock in gains after company posts profit for second straight quarter and says it expects profitable fiscal year. CEO says telecom industry is stabilizing, but revenue for year expected to remain stable or edge higher.

JP MORGAN TOPS VIEWS; SHARES RISE
Reiterates its planned purchase was not done for quick earnings fix, but to produce more balanced, steady earnings stream over long term. Posts 4Q profit of $1.86 million, or 89c a share, handily topping analysts' views. Shares up 2%.

INTEL DOUBLES CASH DIVIDEND
Board of directors approve a 100% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, to 4c from 2c, payable on company&aposs common stock beginning with 1Q of 2004.

MERRILL 4Q NET MORE THAN DOUBLES
Profit handily beats expectations and allows Merrill to cruise to record earnings of nearly $4 billion for year. Shares recover after initial disappointment with revenue, which rises 17% on year, but slips from 3Q and misses forecasts.

SEAGATE MISS PULLS RIVALS LOWER
Seagate plunges 23% after its earnings fall well short of expectations and drags rival disk-drive makers downward as well. Company cites a drop in the number of disk drives used in consumer electronics gadgets and aggressive pricing.

US HOUSING STARTS POST SURPRISE RISE
Home construction in December climbs 1.7% to 2.088 million annual rate, its highest level in nearly 20 years. Economists expected 5.8% decline, but Dow Jones Newswires technical analyst Stephen Cox predicted they would rise and test 2.10 million level.

HOMEBUILDERS RALLY ON EARNINGS NEWS
Shares rally following surprisingly good economic news and better-than-expected earnings results, both suggesting that the housing sector may not be entering a slump after all. Hovnanian jumps 8% and Centex gains 6%.

EX-TYCO EXEC UNAWARE OF KOZLOWSKI BONUS
Brad McGee, Tyco&aposs former head of investor relations, testifies investors weren&apost aware of special bonuses paid to Dennis Kozlowski and Mark Schwartz.

MASSACHUSETTS REGULATOR CHARGES CANTELLA
Massachusetts regulators charge Boston money management firm with failure to supervise two agents who sold unregistered hedge funds "to unsophisticated investors, costing some of them their entire retirement savings."

SECURITY OF WEB VOTING QUESTIONED
Experimental Internet-based voting system slated to be used by overseas voters has security problems and should be scrapped, security experts say. System is being installed by Accenture under contract with Defense Department.

SUITS FILED AGAINST MUSIC DOWNLOADERS
Recording industry sues 532 computer users it says were illegally distributing songs over the Internet, the first lawsuits since federal appeals court blocked use of special copyright subpoenas to identify those being targeted.

RF MICRO TUMBLES ON 4Q OUTLOOK
Shares fall 19% as company warns declining demand for products based on TDMA wireless network would result in quarterly profit well below Wall Street expectations. Company now sees 4Q profits between 2c and 4c a share.

FLIGHT ATTENDANTS REJECT UNITED CONTRACT
Contract asks retirees to pay for more of their health benefits, a move the airline has said it needs to make to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

GLOBAL CROSSING TO HIT NASDAQ TOMORROW
Company that once had value of $48 billion on NYSE, emerged from bankruptcy on Dec. 9, completing process through which it shed about $11 billion in debt and agreed to sell majority stake to Singapore Technologies.

TANZI FAMILY RESIGNS ALL PARMALAT POSTS
Parmalat says members of insolvent dairy group&aposs controlling family have resigned from all their board positions at company and its units. Separately, Parmalat&aposs Cayman affiliates seek creditor protection in U.S.

AMR NARROWS LOSS ON COST CUTS
American Air parent posts net loss of $111 million, or 70c a share, in 4Q, sharply narrowing year-earlier $529 million loss. Biggest improvement comes on cost side as labor costs fall 22.3% and overall operating costs decline 5.8%.

CITIGROUP TO SELL $434M INFINEON STAKE
Citigroup is placing 30 million shares in German chip maker Infineon Technologies on the market for EUR11.5 a share for total of EUR345 million euros, or $434 million, according to a source close to the matter.

BANK OF NY TRIPLES NET; SHARES SLIP
Profit more than triples in 4Q on better income from fee-generating operations. Bank earns $307 million; excluding items, earnings of 44c a share meet Wall Street&aposs expectations. Shares off slightly.


======= DOW JONES NEWSWIRES ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARIES =======

BIG PICTURE
Housing Can&apost Stay So Strong, They Say Again
Economists keep saying strength in homebuilding can&apost last, but month after month construction data depict a sector going from strength to new strength.

TIP SHEET
Powershares Offers Light Managed ETFs
Powershares Capital Management offers exchange traded funds based on quantitative analysis, using data on past performance to predict future market trends.

============ U.S. MARKETS ACTION ===========
DJIA up 93.56 points to 10621.25
NASDAQ down 9.23 points to 2138.75
S&P 500 up 8.20 points to 1146.97
10-year T-note up 9/32 at 101 28/32 yield 4.018
NYMEX Spot Crude down $0.29 at $34.58/bbl at close
Dollar/Euro up 0.0049 at 1.2628

Melnibone, the point is that I have to follow my plan and stay on the right side of the market. If I don't follow the plan and the market goes the way of the plan then I feel like a right prat.
Yesterday I discovered I had coded some exit signals incorrectly and went short before I realised. Not to worry it's sorted now.

Hi snoball,

Sorry if I caused you any offense. None was intended.

Just trying to chat and exchange views. Perhaps my wording
was clumsy? Of course you must follow your own plan, that's
the only way to do it.
If you don't, you might as well just give it to a fund manager
and see how much he/she underperforms the Indices with it. ;-)

Melnibone.

Melnibone, no offence was inferred nor taken my friend. Your views and comment are most welcome. I'm sorry if my response appeared prickly. It most certainly wasn't intended to. This communicating by the written word can be tricky sometimes. I was merely pointing out that my 'system' indicates that the market is long and any attempt at shorting the market is foolhardy until some real indication of a turn has occurred. e.g. a drop in price that breaches a 20 day low.
I am constantly amazed at how people manage to trade shorts in this market. It shows much more skill than I have. I would think it requires a lot of concentration and time at the screen. More that I am willing to expend.
Good trading.
;-)

Thanks snoball. ;-)

Melnibone.

snoball - i am long the dow but do daily shorts as well. you are quite right, i think as the trend is up and you want to go short then you have to have a lot of time in front of the screen. i spend the working day in front of my pc so i get to see intraday movements and subsequently go short when need be.

so whats people view about today? i think we will go down then up but end up lower than we finished yesterday.

Hi Zarif,

On an earlier thread you mentioned you had opened an account with Spreadex,

I was just wondering what they are like???

This morning i received a letter, saying they are offering 10% interest and all the usual benefits that come with spread betting, but 10% is very attractive. i know that they offer the binary bets too which appeal to me as unlike any other bet you know exactly what the downside is. Does anyone trade these binary bets??

how many people here actually spreadbet??

Horse19, I spreadbet with Fins.
I haven't really looked at the binary bets. Maybe I ought to.
I don't trade any other instruments although I have traded long options in the past and once bought some shares. Sold them at break even.

Is the DJ going to break 10650?

Just slipped back a bit - but will it try again?

Anyone any comments?

Evening all - I was out all day and just got in.I am just watching the market atm.
Horse19 - The spreadex a/c is what i would term mickey mouse.I dont really know why i opened it -the online a/c is very limited and not much support there.You have to open and close trades by phone.They used to do 1 min stake on the dow but they have upped it since. Regarding binary bets i think igindex do them.

The trend is up and little woman i feel we are going to reach the 10750 -10800 and over levels.I am basing my deduction solely on say the low point was 7250 and then was consolidating around the 9000 mark for ages. The difference between the two is 1750 (9000-7250) so the upside can be 9000+1750 =10750 and as we are in a bull stage market i think this scenario is possible in the medium to long term but need to put in a wider stop and then trail it up and keep evaluating.

rgds
zarif

So the trend is up in the US, and down in the UK!

Morning all.

javidshaik,
i was interested in you having a trade open for a couple of months. Is it better to keep a trade open that long or to collect some profit periodically and reinvest it again thus leveraging up your profits? i can't make up my mind which is the better option.

hi snoball,

i have a friend who does large amounts of money per point on the dow for a big profit the same day. he also has a long going currently so manages to catch the peaks and troughs on a daily basis so still follows the trend.
the dow is quite volatile sometimes so unless you have a credit account or can allow for a largeish stop loss it might be difficult to let it run but yes i would advise that as being less stressful and more money in the long run.

Hi everyone:
Lets see what the beast has got in store for us today - My view is that it is going north.
Read the posts from Javaidshaik about long positions it is a good strategy but need to be well capitalised for this. I call it SLIM - it stands for Small stake Large stop IN the medium term position.
Other way to look at is the daily and weekly average ranges.the trend then set the position up.

rgfds
zarif