ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

Always operating on the basis that someone, somewhere knows more than you...and usually that 'something' is reflected in the SP, we were clearly on the right path when we exchanged notes on this BB about the Wharehousing issue, and then the flirt with the 200 day ma concerns. I suspect that the SP has some consolidation to do for a while before we can determine a good buy-back price, meanwhile the 'Big Bad Bears' have it! John

Oh ASOS! as you might say.

Still after the initial mark down on the disappointing TA, we seem to have recovered to a tad above where I bought in last week at 59p bid price. Nice two way trade between believers' buys and shorters/institutions sells - the latter lightening the load now that they see the share has last momemtum for a while.

Shame about the warehouse issue, but at least they can announce the new one at the same time. Logistics will always be the name of the game in any mail order business.

So, onwards and upwards from what now seems proven as a good solid support level of 60p ish, alas bounded I fear by a developing level or resistance at about 67p. Ah well, 1.00 by Xmas still seems possible.

Eric, hope you have managed your 60's CFDs well - I'm sure you have.

SD

I wouldn't buy back yet, the price closed at below the 59p mark. This gives a TA guide for lower (so someone who knows a lot about this tells me) are we also sure that the warehousing / supply is the only problem, sales may be up but if you sell items cheap, at a drastically reduced profit, then they always will sell.

Hi, folk. Away from home and just popping into Chichester librry occasionally. So picked up the news this morning - reaction was to buy some more, long term, on my wife's account. Just sticking with the cfd's, stockdog: not a problem with some good margins on SEO and GMC, I'll just sit back and wair for the recovery. Good to get this news out of the way. As jgt says, this has been in the price for a while: one clue was the drop in margin over the Christmas period; another clue was the indication of warehousing problems although they were making light of it. Could they go lower? chart-wise, yes a bit with a support level around 55p and a pe of around 35 at that level. Q1 likely to be taken up with sorting out warehousing. Then they should get quickly back to the trend line with overheads being relatively static against sales. Should get indication of trends in April but it may need the prelims with 1st quarter trading before we start to really move again. Happy to rebuild my position at these lower levels.

Eric

Hi Eric, thought you'd been a bit quiet on all fronts. How's Chichester?

I agree with you that SP is going to hover around where it is now 58.50p ish for a while forming Cerberus' otehr shoulder in effect.

Then where - anything sensitive could send it down to 50p ish before finding support again.

But results no worse than now indicated at prelims stage with positive news on warehouse and margins could start the steady climb again.

No doubt the momentum has been lost to large extent - it will be a more stately progress from hereon in. Although it must be said the SP proved remarkably resilient today. As jgt would advise, let's see the EOW close and sleep on it over the weekend.

SD

stockdog

For those following the progress of Mary (my wife, never mind about ASOS) the stay in Chichester was because she had another attack of pancreatitis as we were passing by - into A&E, into surgery, GB out (gall bladder) and now her optimistic normal self and hopefully out tomorrow, Sunday. First Vancouver, then Chichester - her daktari (guardian angel) has kep her safe from Conquest hospital, Hastings, thank goodness. Excellent care and cleanliness.

As for ASC, EK is encouraging shorting again with a target price of 30p. Appears to be a good support level at 54p; as you say, your favourite head and shoulders - always thought it was a good shampoo! I'm looking for a strong rise from the April trading statement back up towards 1 (happy to justify), but there could be turbulance in the meantime. The major kick will be EK announcing he has closed his short position which may coincide or probably just precede that statement.

Eric

Hi Eric

Sorry to hear about Mary - very unpleasant experience, glad to hear getting better. Hastings hosp not called Conquest for nothing, I guess. Best wishes for her speedy full recovery.

I'm holding double normal weight of ASC so will stand pat and not worry too much about the intervening proces en route to 1 by Xmas (?). Week closed well enough up 1p at near intraday high. Majority blues in quite solid volumes giving the reds a fair run for their money. Tuck away and forget.

My recent interest largely occupied by DOO, BFC and yesterday FOGL put on a spurt to 3 X offer price at which point I took out my original investment, leaving the remainder in for free - they haven't even got a rig on its way yet, so I guess they must run considerably higher over time. Oil price riding high giving the sector a bit of a lift. Also v. pleased with PGI up 45% since I snuck in under cover of no thread 2 weeks ago!

Would like a bit more action on SEO to justify my 4 X weighting of recent addition - prefer a bit more of a profit cushion to rest on - it will come, no doubt, soon enough.

Very happy overall with my portfolio up 77% of my annual target over the last (also my first!) 6 months and sitting on a good number of break out stocks (and a couple of dogs, of course, which I hope are just sleeping soon to re-awaken and spring into life).

Forgive the cross-thread ramble. It's the touch of sheepdog in me - I like a bit of a round up!

Keep well

SD

Ye, wish her well from me too Eric.

Hope the sp picks up for you guys. I noticed in the paper last week Seymour Pierce still think these are a buy.

Unfortunately (as I am a pesimist) I disagree, but we will leave that there!!

Keep Smiling

Legend

Stockdof sitting on a couple of dogs, so he says - bet they are bitches! legend a pessimist? pull the other one - what's that share he put forward for the ASOS challenge? ASC is one share you can tuck safely away (now!) but 1 by next Christmas is pessimistic; July, I say!

Eric

Well, after a day of fairly consistent selling we remain where we were at 59p mid at close.

Seems like MM's are happy to take on stock at this price, ready for the next ride up no doubt.

The cahrt could break either way, but with a PE to 31st March 2005 of 34 followed by 19 and then 14 and a PEG of respectively 0.45 and 0.28, I cannot see much downside to this stock.

proud to be the son of a b***h

SD

And another thing -

The warehouse induced discounting may have reduced profits by 350-500k, but the increase in sales and registered users is surely helpful in introducing another tranche of customers to the experience of a consummated visit to the site. If satisfied, they should return after the sale is over. How many visits makes a habit?

I always go back to old haunts!

sniff, sniff

SD

Well well well.....Fidelity - the world's largest fund manager is also now on board....

ASOS was advised yesterday that Fidelity International Limited now holds
2,131,300 ordinary shares in the Company, which represents 3.05 per cent. of the
entire issued share capital of the Company.

MM: Had a very pleasant and interesting chat with the CEO at the Master Investor show last Saturday. He told ne that there were several City Institutions with holdings in ASOS at just under the declarable holding...and then Fidelity went through the disclosure window. Looks like they are happy with the SP at this level to Buy and with the management! jgt

Helpful comments from John and stockdog (Woodie forgot what he was going to say!). I hope sd doesn't cock his leg against the curtains when he visits his old haunts! Need to recognise that there is a definite two-way pull now with ASC. The shorters are there still and there is evidence in the trading pattern today. John's input demonstrates that investing momentum is building up with the institutions. Short term speculators are looking elsewhere which is fair enough. Looking at my own portfolio, ASC is the holding that I view as most positive in the long-term and I am building up the holding on that basis.

Eric

Eric

What makest thou of the Shares sell recommend today - can't read it, since only at dog level. Interesting to see how much it affects the SP - certainly not positively, in spite of Man and Fidelity both declaring stakes Tuesday.

Fundamentals still look OK. Will the latest profit downgrade for March 2005 carry on pro rata to 2006, 2007? I don't think so, once the warehouse and logistics problem is sorted early next trading year. So, am still relying on consensus PE of 19.90 for 2006 and 13.54 for 2007 - hardly demanding for a growth story.

I continue to hold.

SD

stockdog

Will be picking up my copy of Shares when I walk the dog! I suspect they are subscribing to t1ps - evil's propoganda! Hitwise traffic figures remain at the levels established in Jan and Feb, so even it those were encouraged by an extended sale, sales should be back on track. The charts obviously look pretty dreadful. The sales today are mainly small investors, presumably influenced by Shares, plus three or four round figures which are quite likely part of the shorting exercise. Beginning to cause one or two problems with my CFD position but it won't be ASC that I close if I have to. Will comment further when I see Shares. Sentiment is bound to be negative whillst the last news is depressing; what we need is some positive projections which may not be until April.

Not a tail-wagging time! Eric

Surely the time to recommend selling a share is BEFORE it falls through the floor, not afterwards, when it's likely to stage a recovery.

This seems similar to the situation with MFI last year their sp slumped due to distribution difficulties hitting sales, but I bought when the shares were down and made a handy profit once they began sorting out the problems and confidence returned.

RD: Your approach is known as 'Contrarian Investing' based on good instinct...long may it continue to bring home your gravy! As for the Shares Sell recommendation today, I think you are right in your damming judgement, they should have called it before now....let's all hope they don't go the way of the Investors Chronicle!

John

Good points, both of them RD.

The market seems to think so too, holding at 57p, only 0.5p down since the Shares sell note.

Not so with poor old DEMG to which I am clinging like the wreck of the Titanic - still the orchestra sounds very nice to night, dear, don't you think?

SD