overgrowth
- 12 May 2005 22:21
Mediwatch is a small
company destined to become a much bigger fish by the time this year is
out.
Mediwatch are already a market leader in urological medical diagnostics
equipement and are currently exporting their products throughout the UK,
Canada, Europe, India and Japan.
That doesn't leave much of the globe left for them to capture - until
you remember the good ol' US and China.
These are the two massive markets which are destined to be added to MDW's
export client portfolio by the end of 2005.
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The company is currently
heavily undervalued. This is probably because Mediwatch's speciality is
not a very glamourous business to be in as their equipment is used extensively
to diagnose prostate cancer in men and other nasty urological conditions
affecting both men and women. However, don't let that put you off investing
in these guys. This is big business and is growing at an exponential rate
as more and more people globally become health-aware as they get older.
Mediwatch normally
supply their products through to global markets via distribution agreements.
They already have the best of distribution partners in the well known
US medical distributor CR Bard who supply Canada and Europe and GE Medical
who supply Japan. The UK business is handled by Mediwatch's own dedicated
sales team.
US FDA approval was
gained for MDW's products at the start of last year, however a whole year
of US legal wrangling meant that they were unable to seek a suitable partner
for the crucial distribution agreement until the start of this year. This
distribution agreement is expected by the board to have a "significant
effect" on the share price so they are reluctant to give any clues
as to when it will be signed, sealed and delivered. The general consensus
is that this US distribution agreement will be announced in July/August.
In China and Hong Kong, MDW have done things the other way round. They
have set up distribution agreements with major Asian medical equipment
distributors and have stock already out there waiting to sell into the
markets - all they are waiting for is SDA approval (which is a "rubber
stamp") from the Chinese authorities - this can take anything up
to 12 months to come through and MDW applied during Autumn 2004 - so even
more good news coming soon this year.
Epidemiological data from British Association of Urology conference last year: On average 30-45% of all men between the age of 50 and 70 have at least one PSA test per year in the US / Italy / Australia.
If that's not enough
to convince you to invest a few hard earned coppers in MDW, they are also
developing a PSA stick test product (PSAWatch) which is revolutionary and causing
some excitement in medical circles. This product can also be adapted (at
very low cost) for a whole spectrum of medical disciplines from Cardiology
to Veterinary Practice! This product is likely to be released in the next
few weeks. Philip Stimpson the CEO has said that this product is going
to be their "gold mine" - I'm sure it will prove to be ours
too.
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Treblewide
- 07 Feb 2007 14:37
- 1381 of 1497
thanks for the advice Minder...noted and thanks for pointing out the move after the fact...great work
Minder
- 07 Feb 2007 15:43
- 1382 of 1497
Oh really treblewide,
Treblewide - 05 Sep 2006 15:24 - 1143 of 1381
first little nibble spreadbet short at 8pence
Minder - 05 Sep 2006 17:26 - 1144 of 1381
So did I pick the wrong day to buy 100k then treble? LOL.
Just remember the thing with spread bets and going short, the profit is finite but the loss is open-ended.
I hope you don't mind if I don't wish you well on your venture (no malice, just it is a completely opposite position to my own), are you using a guaranteed stop-loss, I would recommend that, especially if we do get very positive News, because you will find it hard to close and I think you have completely under-estimated what is going on.
banjomick - 05 Sep 2006 17:45 - 1145 of 1381
Think i'll get 100k tomorrow :-)
Treblewide - 05 Sep 2006 17:55 - 1146 of 1381
minder..reasonable post....I always use stop losses however they are a bit of a waste of time on a small cap as if it gaps above you just get best market price.
Minder..I honestly think some of you folk are being a bit blind about this company..the chart says it all..if there is so much good news...where is the buying and the management dont exactly have a great track record of delivering...also MDW need to work out what they are...do they sell thier own products or are they an outsourced manufacturing arm?
anyway opposite thoughts make a market
Treblewide
- 07 Feb 2007 16:35
- 1383 of 1497
Minder well done so you had an increase to your holding at 8p...good call.
what price are the rest of your buys? I am assuming you got in before anyone knew about this at 3p?
Minder
- 07 Feb 2007 17:33
- 1384 of 1497
There you go again 'assuming', no have not been in for that long, am above my average though so quite happy, will still buy at these levels when I have the cash.
How happy are you to be short MDW running up to next week and beyond?
banjomick
- 07 Feb 2007 17:41
- 1385 of 1497
I might have known Treble would be here-lol
banjomick
- 07 Feb 2007 17:51
- 1386 of 1497
Evening Treble,
You said:
"The acquisition was not a strategic move by the managemen ie they did not plan it for years it kind of fell into their lap and they could not make MDW profitable so I have little faith they can make this newer enterprise any more profiatble especially with comeptition from far east manufacturers"
And MDW say:
"The Acquisition
Over the last two years, Mediwatch has been working closely with Medtronic, one
of the market leaders internationally in the distribution of medical equipment,
to develop an innovative diagnostic platform for the urology market. In November
2005, these efforts culminated in the signing of an agreement whereby
Medtronic's urology diagnostics division would distribute certain of the
Company's products in the North American market and continue the cooperation to
develop products within the urology sector."
banjomick
- 14 Feb 2007 23:14
- 1387 of 1497
Does anyone know who is compiling the research note?
If it is Hoodless Brennan they will be in a better position to carry out the research rather than a company that is new to MDW(they completed the last one in November 2006).
From their last Research Note:
"An unremarkable set of second interims from Mediwatch on 22nd September 2006 showed the board still struggling with a narrow product range and waiting for the launch of PSAwatchTM test in Q1 2007."
Well,the narrow product range has grown somewhat and CE approval for PSAwatch due this month.
Also:
"In our view it remains too early to forecast 2007 given the time taken to organise a US office and recruit sales people.We are encouraged by the boards willingness to stump up collectively 181k worth of the newplacing at 7p."
In reply to above,MDW have acted:
"Our Florida based facility will be fully operational in February 2007 and
will employ 10 staff, some of whom have joined from Medtronic's Urology
Diagnostic Division."
The T-DOC distribution agreement was something not even thought about in their last note (Nov 2006)so the extra revenue that will be generated is another plus point for them to note.
Another also,If Hood are carrying out the research then it appears very strange that a few months ago they said:
"In our view it remains too early to forecast 2007 given the time taken to organise a US office and recruit sales people."
I'm expecting all three announcements in one go which will not be to every ones liking but as far as I'm concerned doesn't really matter as long as the news is out there.It also gives MDW massive exposure if all the information is out in one go ie big re-rating.
The three Announcements:
1. CE Approval for PSAwatch
2. The Research Note
3. Updates on the New Florida Section
Just me thoughts while watching the match.
mg
- 15 Feb 2007 07:12
- 1388 of 1497
The only thing Hoodless Brennan are capable of writing is a shopping list of stock they are pushing because they got some cheap the day before. Can't believe anyone in that place can write their name - never mind a research note. Faintly disguised bucket shop IMESHO.
As announced previously, the Note will come from a reputable research company. Thank goodness.
leedslad
- 15 Feb 2007 10:09
- 1389 of 1497
research note out NOW
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/
leedslad
- 15 Feb 2007 10:25
- 1390 of 1497
Also on MDW web site
mg
- 15 Feb 2007 10:37
- 1391 of 1497
Presumably MDW's new PR machine will make sure the weekend broadsheets get copies.
leedslad
- 15 Feb 2007 10:50
- 1392 of 1497
This is without any revenue from PSA watch when it is launched.
:-)
Dave
Treblewide
- 15 Feb 2007 16:19
- 1393 of 1497
ok so in 2008 they are forecasting at current share price they would be on a p/e of nearly 13..sounds reasonable...dont see huge upside (even if they hit their targets)
real profit still 2 years away if they get a fair wind...remaining short
Fred1new
- 15 Feb 2007 16:59
- 1394 of 1497
MG, otherwise it will have a very mucky finger!
banjomick
- 15 Feb 2007 18:35
- 1395 of 1497
Evening Treble and lol
Treblewide
- 15 Feb 2007 23:04
- 1396 of 1497
p/e of 100 in 2007.....somewhat overvalued in my opinion
banjomick
- 15 Feb 2007 23:33
- 1397 of 1497
We will see,Treble.
Minder
- 16 Feb 2007 08:22
- 1398 of 1497
treblewide,
Edisons seem to think it undervalued on Oct 2007 estimates and you, who are short, think it is overvalued, so what are we meant to think?
Let's look back to the poster who went short at 8p because the Company was in your opinion 'undervalued'.
With sales estimated to be 9m this year (with just under 40% margin), just how overvalued do you see it at a 13m market Capitalisation?
Treblewide
- 16 Feb 2007 09:26
- 1399 of 1497
minder...yes i shorted at 8p and clsed out at 8.5p...hardly disaster.
their prosepctive p/e for 2007 is over 100 Minder so behave yerself undervalued and 2008 figures are irrelevant at the moment
they are estimating about 100k profit this year so 13M does seem a lot and if MDW miss these figures then may the force be with you
ps i am short at the moment from 11.25.
banjomick
- 16 Feb 2007 15:42
- 1400 of 1497
Afternoon Treble,
If we get the announcement on Monday morning that PSAwatch has gained CE approval then I'd be slightly worried if I were short but you should have time to close if you are up early :-)