How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?

Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

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Yes

If you followed the rules to the book you wouldn't have been on the match last night as it did not fulfill various criteria mentioned at the course. However if you are confident enought to make a judgement you can. You will see my comments scattered over much of the thread on individual footy matches.

Spurs were all over Forest last night and at half time they were "leading" in the stats by about 0.60 goals to 0.10. If they kept that rate up then they would almost certainly score in the second half. Posession was >60% as well and as high as 75% early on. In short, I would have been amazed if Spurs didn't score. However, sometimes things do not happen the way you expect.

The problem with covering a loss in this type of scenario is that you can cover multiples of your stake. So say you bought at X you could lay at X-whatever; but always the odds will end up a multiples of X if your game plan is not working out.

Therefore you do not want to have a system that allows you to lose more than your stake. You have to make the expectancy positive somewhere. I do that by "limiting" my loss to 100% but winning X X% of the time. Different markets and strategies need different money management.

Often where people go wrong is chasing a loss. Say Forest scored and Spurs went out to 4's. You could cover at 4's but if Spurs came back to lead 2-1 you would face losing three times your captial. You could cover again but if Forest came back you could end up 16 times worse off.

Scrip

Are you planning another course soon or are you waiting for (and to include) some stuff on BOTS? Unfortunately for me, I have not been able to make the last two(or even the first two).

Layed sound that alarm at lingfield at 3.2 and backed at 4.1 - then they withdraw the horse and all bets cancelled!!!

Thanks Scrip, that confirms what I understood from the course. Facing it in practice sharpens the focus even more!

Fundy, So did I and then the site froze and cost me a packet on the eventual winner. I had a position open when the site froze and couldn't exit properly before the start. Abusive email sent to Betfair, I feel slightly better now but my wallet hurts.

Somehow I think Queens Brigade will win the 14:00. Messing around and lost some on that one so you go and watch it win!!

Hurrah, It didn't my luck maybe on a better tack; all green on 14:10.

I had the experience that Bones mentioned on the Arsenal game, coming into the 2nd half they upped a gear (and when was the last time Arsenal didn't score) so I backed them thinking that sooner or later Sheffield would buckle. Naturally they didn't.

One lesson here is that I shouldn't bet on Arsenal games, even if I think there is no emotional attachment there is bound to be some effect on an unconscious level.

Other than that I find these situations emotionally disconcerting as the risk 2 reward seems all wrong, I suppose once I have more eyeball evidence that the probability of coming out on top is enough to overturn the bad r2r I'll feel more comfortable with this strategy

Other than that its been an up and down experience since the course, I am a victim of itchy fingers and not enough discipline. Anyway the best way to learn is to fail, and the best way to fail is with small stakes :-)

Site stalled again there. Betfair really need to sort this out.

Script - fwiw - I've been on all day without any glitches at all here.

What broadband provider are you with?

Scrip

i have had 3 or 4 occasions where it has stalled for at least 10-15 seconds at a time - still having a very good afternoon but it is getting annoying (im on tiscali broadband)

None of you really thought that Spurs were gonna draw or lose surely??
That was a certain back for me especially knowing that Mido would come on at some point!

Script - sorry for the delay - been playing with the attheraces site - very big delay on the video makes it almost useless.
I'm with Onetel broadband - a BT line of course but I can't remember the last time it failed.

"still having a very good afternoon" - I am glad somebody is!! I haven't really recovered from that early issue when Betfair went AWOL.

And right on que its gone AWOL again!

But only briefly. It's very annoying.

My guess is that the probability of a horse is less volatile than the price. If it drifts you get better value than something that is shorter.

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BACKING horses that drift in the market is more profitable than backing those whose odds shorten, according to Betfair.

The betting exchange's claim represents the latest ingredient in Betfair's attempt to counteract allegations that exchanges pose a threat to racing's integrity, with non-triers allegedly being laid on the exchanges, where their price drifts before the horse involved loses.

On the basis of an analysis of six months' data, from the second half of 2004, Betfair concludes: "The evidence of nearly 2,000 races and 20,000 horses shows that more money would have been made backing drifters than backing horses that shortened in price on Betfair."

Defining a "drifter" as a horse whose price moved out by more than 20 per cent during the final five minutes before the official start time of each race, and a "shortener" as a horse for whom the reverse was true, Betfair claims: "The analysis from every runner in 1,864 races over the summer and autumn of 2004 shows categorically that punters who bet on horses that drift in the betting in the final five minutes do better than those who bet on horses that shorten in the market."

A 1 level stake bet immediately before the start of each race produced a loss of 345 on"shorteners" but a profit of 570 from indiscriminately backing "drifters".

According to Betfair: "These results, using a large volume of data, completely contradict the stated view of those who use anecdotal evidence to project the idea that the biggest drifters in the betting market are "prepared to lose," and thus represent bad value bets for punters.

"Detractors of exchanges are keen to highlight horses that drift and lose but conveniently forget those that drift and win. This analysis serves as a timely reminder that there are many reasons why horses drift in the market. It proves beyond doubt that the view that a drift in price indicates some form of skulduggery is not only a lazy and incorrect assumption, but a potentially expensive one.

"The reality is that drifting horses do not drift on the basis of either nefarious activity or inside information; they drift because market forces dictate the price and, as financial markets show, market forces can get it wrong as often as they get it right."

Interesting post scrip

wonder if in the next few weeks we will see money coming for drifters before the off?

Anyone finding Betfair pedestrian?

D