for more information about stanelco click on the links.

driver's research page link
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=7681#lastread
website link
http://www.stanelco.co.uk/index.htm

sorry driver crossed in post

Barney

I am also highly disappointed with SEO's website. Its a bloody shambles and is probably doing more damage to the company's reputation than any good. There is absolutely no excuse at all for it. They really do not realise that the website is the company's shop window to entice people in to enquire and buy.

At the moment I cannot get into FYB to post because I have changed my settings during a cleanup and forgotten my password. I can and do read the board every day to keep up with the discussions - most of which are very helpful and informative.

The oily one

barney - MAM is the only BB that I read or post on. I personaly find fyb a pain to use and prefer the simplicity of the MAM site in comparison.

Happy to support though from MAM.

Alan6 - Eric is the current M-AM G0LF Champion (2005) and he does NOT lose many/any gollies (biodegradable or otherwise), i.e. as steady & solid as a non-bio ROCK with stamina to match!! BTW please feel free to join us on the Eve of The World Cup. Max. handicap allowance is: 28. But whatever happens, you will enjoy great banter with a great bunch of lads, if last year's Event is anything to go by!

LOL re: your post: 15428 - superb! :o)

I think McD's and Wal-Mart will certainly be asking questions about Stanelco's website. It's probably top of their list in negotiations. Thankfully, for some of us shareholders, the board of Stanelco know how to prioritise.

Eric,
Re post 15493.
The number is credible. The time scale is up for discussion as per oilywags observation that it could be a contract for any length of time.
Each tonne of Starpol will be sufficient for 20,000 50 gram trays.
Each contract is for a minimum 20,000 tonnes.
20,000 x 20,000 = 400,000,000 units!
That is using the maths from the results where 75,000 tonnes produced 1,500,000,000 units.
Now remember that it is "a number of contracts" and a "minimum" 20,000 tonnes and I think I am being conservative thinking of 5 contracts for minimum tonnage.
What we do not know, unless anyone can drag a pointer up from previous RNS, is what exactly the business model for this is, and therefore the effect on bottom line. But it must be big. It cannot be small fry when we are talking 2 billion units.
Further, do I remeber the word initially from the RNS? Could there be more to come?
I am trying to find the holes in these figures and keep the post low key because I do not want to be seen to "ramp", but the numbers are there in black and white. The devil is in the detail. We do not know the business model and therefore how profitable this may be and we do not know what it may cost SEO to make it happen.
That must be the next step to making sensible predictions on cash generation, profitability and effect on SP.
Alan

C'mon guys. help me out here.
My calculator fingers got a blister on it as I try to disprove my own maths, and work out what it could mean, in terms of revenue and profitability.
18 months ago, Earthshell said the disposable plastics for the food industry were worth about $25 billion dollars a year.
Eric suggested that a figure of 25 million might be a good point to start. If that is a good figure then SEO share of the market would be about 0.15%, or in other words we would be talking (using Oilywags 5 years and my dubious maths of 400 million units) about a global market of 52.8 billion units per annum. Now that number really is not credible, so we must assume a greater market share than 0.15%.
Of course, the logic used is less than perfect. I could be grossly overestimating the total production from these licenses. the $25 billion figure may be an exageration or may include items that would not be suitable for Starpol, the market may have shrunk, or any number of things, but it seems to me that 20 million is a little on the low side.
Let me be clear. I AM NOT TRYING TO RAMP THIS SHARE. The risks are now lower, but still there. The upside has improved dramatically and the downside is less frightening.
What I am trying to do is get a handle on what the numbers may mean, and trying to stimulate debate and investigation, cos quite frankly I am getting lost in a fog of logic.
My gut feeling is still that this announcement underpins an SP of about 20p, and other announcements should add to this.
Big message on Friday, big numbers and very little attempt by most to translate it into what it means to shareholders.
Stick your necks out!! Look as daft as me and try to make sense of it.
Alan

Alan,

The 1.5bn units was an annual requirement so 75,000 tonnes of material will be required annually to satisfy. The 20,000 tonne license only satisfies 27% of the annual requirement, yes, we don't know the term of the license but it is most likely to be a year.

Sphere have an annual requirement of 10,000 tonnes from Biotec estimated at in excess of 13.5m, so the revenue from the evaluated tray will be in excess of 100m. As it will be a JV, we can only guess at the SEO income.

can anyone tell me why seo themselves cannot give us a figure ? why do they have to leave it to bb enthusiasts ? no offence , alan, but this ain't your job , it's theirs.


zscrooge, the snow's back on winter hill !! what a view :))

Agree completely, bos. I am just absolutely facinated by what this all means in pounds shillings and pence!!
I am disappointed as anyone that SEO did not put any figure on it, but understand completely that any salesman in the world would not want to tell the price and bottom line to his client before he had sold him on the benefit. Major contract negotiations are no different to double glazing in some ways!
Anyway, isn't the essence of investing working out who is likely to make how much before the rest of the market cotton on to it? And I really don't believe that the enormity of the release has drilled down yet.
Alan

Been away for a few days and have only just read last 10 or so pages.
If I remember correctly everyone was complaining about STANELCO RNS's coming out in droves and promising nothing concrete.
Looking at the last few , Maybe they've gone a bit too far the other way.LOL.
Like ALAN I think the implications of the last RNS will sink in over the next few weeks and the SP will reflect this.
I'm even more confidant that as a long term investment STANELCO is coming good.
And yes the WEBSITES ARE S**T. There is no other phrase that springs to mind.
The results were pretty much what I expected, as for the ASDA greenseal contract , I still have faith re conversions by JULY and believe that some machines will be direct replacements by MONDINI ( as have reached end of lifecycle -5years).
Will see what new week brings and may top up as and when figures/news points to higher gains/results.
I'm happy with my current No of shares and have'nt brought anymore for past few months. I personally think the figures and RNS's reflect a SP of about 22p. Will buy more as/when they reflect 40-50p.... hopefully about june.

Good work Alan-I can't understand why the Analysts are ignoring SEO they should also be doing the figures and putting out buy notes. What do these guys do to earn their money? I agree SEO have been a bit too quiet lately but hopefully that's about to change. Could do with your wit on the Yoo thread lately Alan-I'm feeling very guilty that for the first time ever I was rude to tvc15. I don't usually rise to derampers! ps check out EPY the figures look good to me in a massive market. sp rising and I intend to add but then ---I'm in yoo so what do I know!!

I've seen the way tvc15 has been on YOO.
I am still in there (just) but have decided to ignore the posts.
Where someone posts dozens of times a day, almost putting a commentary on every deal and has such a negative outlook on the share, I have to wonder quite what their agenda is. If it is that bad, short it and bugger off.
I also have my suspicions that he and Mr Sensible are one and the same, and are playing the oldest deramping/ramping trick in the book.
On SEO, yep, I would be putting out a buy note right now. I always stuggle to work out NAV and P/E ratios and all the rest of it but SEO is trading happily at 14-15p while making a 3.2 million loss, and most commentators seem to think that is about right. Whichever way i cut it, the licenses for multiples of 20,000 tonnes of Starpol material should wipe that out at a stroke and still leave the Greenseal and Mondini and ciggy filters and all the rest, and not forgetting that the licenses are the start of a controlled roll out!!
Still needs details of the business model to price it all though, but I am more confident that ever.
Good luck with EPY, MP. I am in 18 stocks at the moment and so I am looking mainly at exits rather than entries!!
BTW, ITR and our beloved PCM look very promising, and the trading patterns for my oldest stock (BBC) are very odd. Big T Trades, all selling and the price has gone up on days like that!! Biggest land bank they ever had, slightly disappointing year ends. Adds up to bid speculation to me or someone building a stake. DYOR and WTF do I know!!
Alan

ITR is doing well-I missed that one. Like you I should exit from some holdings but 40% would go to Gordon so I'm really torn! I haven't the nerve to spreadbet but hate paying tax!! I'm very interested in MPF-CDE-and CHNS.L now all doing well and I should release some funds to buy in-can't take anymore from the housekeeping!!

Hi everybody.

Iam new to this BB, but have been following the BB for 18 months, and seen the highs and lows in SEO. I have a reasonable holding SEO (over I million shares) and have had for that length of time. The latest news regarding Wal-Mart wanting to fast track certain aspects of SEO's technology, together with the announcement offering licences for a minimum production per annum of 20,000 tonnes of Starpol is excellent news, and in the past would have seen the sp rocket to over 30p. It may still happen, but I think this will only occur when we start seeing some earnings coming through, and that means contracts being signed up.

With regard to the value of each licence, I would suggest the following. From the Merrill Lynch analyst's note recently, Starpol 2000 sandwiched with TPS (Thermo-plastic starch) - which is price comparable with APET - is priced at 1.45/Kg. Therefore the cost to a third party of buying 20,000 tonnes of the material would be 1.45x1,000x20,000=29million or 20million (assuming 1.45=$1). Assuming that the JV between SEO and SPhere receives 10% of that cost as payment in relation to providing the licence, then SEO's sales per licence for 20,000 tonnes of material would be 1 million (this figure would be higher if the licencee produces more material on the ratio of 20,000 to 1) - at this stage I am not sure if that is net of providing the Starpol material, and therefore not sure of the profit derived from these sales. I believe that SEO are looking to provide 17 licences, and therfore suspect that SEO may have a minimum requirment to provide 340,000 tonnes of material almost immediately. Now that bodes very well for the future. I am in for the long haul, and I now look forward to seeing things to start happening soon.

Welcome rmhyams. thanks for that work.
Where do you get the 17 licenses from?
Would love to know.
Alan

From the Merrill Lynch note.

found this:

groundbreaking technologies (you want the best biodegradable plastic its here now)

partners (perseco) have a secure supply of material (no supply and demand issues)

to offer continuous supply in turn to their customers (again no supply and demand issues further up the chain)

no shortage of interest in this venture (biting our hands off actually)

to accelerate the availability of our materials in the U.S (perseco and walmart want it asap)

vertical integration (starpol is produced in existing plastics factories alongside petro plastics using existing equipment making it very fast-track)

preference will be given to those companies able to move to agreement and bring product to market in the soonest time frame (starpol can be up and running in existing factories in weeks)

the following quotes are from the spf forum last year

"The additional ingredients allow the material to be processed more easily than 100% PLA without the need for equipment modification"

"Can be easily thermoformed on standard equipment with only minor adjustments to temperature" ---------------------------------------------
If starpol can be formed on existing machines, I think contracts will be signed in days not months.
jim

Very helpful posts jimward and rmhyams. That figure of 1m per licensee seems sensible; but I would assume separate from material supply. 17m would go through to the bottom line and we are back to being worth around 15p on the share price.

I think we need to remember that SEO are running a business at a critical stage of development; it can't be a priority to issue RNSs all the time; their website you would have thought was a higher priority. Maybe they sould emply someone to do it but then that person needs recruitment effort and induction. I would be happy for them to get on with their research, commissioning, selling etc. Sensible to let the Merrill Lynch's of this world handle that side of the business. Of course this news came out with a press release because they are trying to tie down potential customers; that should be their priority.

I agree with Alan that these two announcements, WalMart and Starpol licences, are tremendously significant. I have been surprised in several cases how slow the market is to react to positive news (e.g. AZM, successful completion of obesity trials in US, triggering an almost certain mega-licensing deal but several weeks before the sp starts motoring). I am ratcheting up my holding now and I wouldn't advise followers to wait; once the trading channel is broken, the movement could be fast.

Eric