Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

This one has been trashed.

Bought in today.

40p

that was brave, especially in this present market

True.

Cant deny that. Looking far enough back it can half again to the last low a few years back.

Then some more :)

See how we go.

Happy at the moment :)

Update on expected results for the full year ended 30 September 2018

Thomas Cook Group ("Thomas Cook") has today published an update on the expected results for the full year ending 30 September 2018, ahead of schedule as a result of the expected lower underlying EBIT of £250 million. The Group will publish its full audited financial results as planned on 29 November 2018.

The comments below are based on underlying like-for-like comparisons unless otherwise stated, as Management believes this provides a clearer view of the Group's year-on-year progression

Performance highlights

· Group revenue of £9,584 million, up 6% on a like-for-like basis

· Underlying EBIT of £250 million, £58 million lower than prior year on a like-for-like basis

o Tour Operator down £88m, impacted by discounting in 'lates' market; UK particularly disappointing

o Strong Airline profit growth of £35 million, despite higher disruption costs

o Group result includes £28 million of legacy and non-recurring charges to underlying EBIT

· EBIT SDIs of £153 million, including transformation and start-up costs

· Net debt of £389 million; increase due to delayed bookings and higher non-cash items

· Bank covenant compliant; headroom for future covenant tests

· Dividend suspended for Full Year 2018

Strategic progress developing new opportunities for growth and efficiencies

· Sales of holidays to own-brand hotels up 15%; 2019 pipeline of at least 20 new hotels

· Accelerating own-brand hotel growth through £150-million fund with first £35 million expansion capital

· Strategic integration of Expedia technology and content in first five markets

· Innovative ancillary services driving growth of 4%

Priorities for 2019 onwards

· Address performance in our UK tour operator business

· Better capacity management and improved operational flexibility

· Drive increased focus on cash and cost discipline across group

· Improve selling of higher-margin own-brand hotels and differentiated holidays

Outlook for 2019

· Expect to deliver progress on underlying EBIT and lower separately disclosed items, leading to substantial progress on reported operating profit

· Reported operating profit will be a primary focus going forward, together with free cash generation

Commenting on the results for 2018, Peter Fankhauser added:

"2018 was a disappointing year for Thomas Cook, despite achieving some important milestones in our strategy for transforming the business. After a good start to the year, we experienced a larger-than-anticipated decline in gross margin following the prolonged period of hot weather in our key summer trading period. Our final result is expected to be around £30 million lower than previously guided, due to a number of legacy and non-recurring charges to underlying EBIT.

"Within this, profit in our tour operating business fell £88 million as the sustained heatwave restricted our ability to achieve the planned margins in the last quarter. The UK was particularly hard hit with very high levels of promotional activity coming on top of an already competitive market for holidays to Spain. Despite the impact of the hot summer, our Northern European tour operator achieved a near record performance, albeit lower than that expected at the end of May. Meanwhile, our Group Airline delivered strong growth in customers and profit, benefitting from increasing capacity in a turbulent European aviation sector.

"We remain committed to our strategy for profitable growth and we've made some good progress during the year. Within our own-brand hotels business we have established our hotel investment fund, opening 11 new hotels last summer, including an innovative new concept in Cook's Club. This positions us well for 2019 as we build on our position as one of the top 5 sun & beach hotel companies in Europe with at least 20 new hotel openings planned. Meanwhile, the launch of our alliance with Expedia, now in five of our markets, offers customers a much wider choice of city and domestic hotels at lower cost to the business. Taken together, these developments are transforming our opportunities for growth.

"Looking ahead, we must learn the lessons from 2018 and go into the new year focused on where we can make a difference to customers in our core holiday offering. We will put particular attention on addressing the performance in our UK tour operator where the challenges of transformation in a competitive environment remain significant. Across the Group, we will continue to streamline our cost base and manage our capacity to give us greater operational flexibility and financial discipline, while focusing the team on delivering performance improvements and giving customers more reasons to holiday with Thomas Cook."

unmitigated disaster ..... definitely one to AVOID

These dropped below 20p 6 years ago and recovered to around 180p, I think the time to buy will be when the directors start buying.

Got lucky with this one last month.

Bloomberg on TCG

Barclays Capital today reaffirms its equal weight investment rating on Thomas Cook Group PLC (LON:TCG) and cut its price target to 46p (from 120p).

Full Year Results for year ended 30 September 2018

Performance highlights

· Group revenue of £9,584 million, up 6% on a like-for-like basis

· Underlying EBIT of £250 million, £58 million lower than prior year on a like-for-like basis

o Tour Operator down £88m, impacted by discounting in 'lates' market; UK particularly disappointing

o Strong Airline profit growth of £35 million, despite higher disruption costs

o Group result includes £28 million of legacy and non-recurring charges to underlying EBIT

· EBIT SDIs of £153 million, including transformation and start-up costs

· Net debt of £389 million; increase due to delayed bookings and higher non-cash items

· Bank covenant compliant; headroom for future covenant tests

· Dividend suspended for Full Year 2018, reflecting the overall net loss after tax

Strategic progress developing new opportunities for growth and efficiencies

· Sales of holidays to own-brand hotels up 15%; 2019 pipeline of at least 20 new hotels

· Accelerating own-brand hotel growth through £150-million fund with first £35 million expansion capital

· Strategic integration of Expedia technology and content in first five markets

· Innovative ancillary services driving growth of 4%

Priorities for 2019 onwards

· Address performance in our UK tour operator business

· Better capacity management and improved operational flexibility

· Drive increased focus on cash and cost discipline across group

· Improve selling of higher-margin own-brand hotels and differentiated holidays

Outlook for 2019

· Expect to deliver progress on underlying EBIT and lower separately disclosed items, leading to substantial progress on reported operating profit

· Reported operating profit will be a primary focus going forward, together with free cash generation

more.....

Ugh......down another 20% today!

that's quite an achievement in a rocketing market

I was lucky last month. Bought at 40 and out at 48.

Worth another go soon I reckon.

Boxing Day Sale coming soon.

10 year low is somewhere between 10 - 11p, I think.
Also, seems TCG are due to fall out of the FTSE 250.

UBS today reaffirms its neutral investment rating on Thomas Cook Group PLC (LON:TCG) and cut its price target to 34p (from 60p).

Thomas Cook shares nosedive as MS warns of earnings dilution from airline sale
08 Feb 2019 - 13:25

* Thomas Cook Group shares sink 17.5 pct, erasing Thursday's rally, as doubts over planned airline sale emerge
* Stock set for worst one-day drop since Dec. 3. Traders say Morgan Stanley note outlining negative impacts of airline sale is weighing
* "An airline disposal would reduce leverage and capital constraints, but also create strategic uncertainty for the tour operator, and be substantially (~50%) EPS dilutive," say MS analysts
* Selling the whole airline is the most favourable outcome, but the bank sees few obvious buyers
* Nevertheless, the strategic review of the airline is "sensible" given the tour operator's leverage is still too high, they add
* Morgan Stanley cuts EPS estimates by about 20 percent to account for weak first-quarter and current trading
* "TCG's cash buffer could shrink again next winter," they add, saying a revenue drop or suppliers demanding earlier payment could hurt working capital inflows, send cash buffer below minimum level and force it to raise funds
* "The rally yesterday made no sense to me," a trader says, adding that he thought it was mainly driven by short covering