just a bit on egde that's all got quite a large holding and dont want to lose the lot, thanks for the advice.

Best blinds, I have also got a 'few' and wouldn't like to lose my pot. As we all know there is always an element of risk in the stock market but IMO the risk here is worth taking. The one thing I did not like was the institutions selling their holdings (Morley Fund Management for one) at a large loss as well! This is a worry, but the stock appears to have been absorbed into the market now.
These are my views of course and I hope to be helpful but each of us must make our own decisions, it is our own cash!

Sure Optomistic, i've pulled out today i think i'd rather sit back and see what happens these next 2 or 3 weeks if it pans out ok ill get back in...i think.

bestblinds, I certainly did not wish to encourage you into selling in a hurry, however as you are now holding cash you now have no worries about THUS. When the market turns you will then be able to repurchase if you wish and perhaps show us LTBH'ers how it should be done.
Good luck in your investments
opto

THUS has gone pear-shaped recently - 16p now. I think it will go down to 10-12p within the next month.

Anybody got any idea why its going mad on THUS trades today?

If you check back to the 12 July on this thread, I said to lay
a ruler along the chart that I posted and see which way it pointed.
Nothing has changed.

I can't be bothered to check, but this stock must now be getting
close to dropping out of the Ftse350 into the small caps.
If it does you will have the Ftse 350 and 250 trackers selling
their holdings.
Also, all the CFD and Spreadbetters that use companies that only
make markets in the Ftse350 will also be forced to liquidate
their positions as there will no longer be a market in them.

Any THUS fans care to check this out and post their findings?

Melnibone.

Apparently this is because of a possible bid rumour going around of re-newed interest from C&W.....

Rumour has it that C&W are sitting on 1bn cash pile with THUS or CTM as possible target !

Got this from www.iii.co.uk

Rumour has it that C&W are sitting on 1bn cash pile with THUS or CTM as possible target !

Rumour, possible, maybe.... the list goes on.

Quick mental maths says approx 6m changed hands in THUS today.
Peanuts, really.

I dare say that there will be consolidation in this sector at some
point, but that's no reason to go LTBH on a company. You don't
know when, what price, or if like TWT they just let the company
go to the dogs and wipe out the shareholders so that the debt holders
take the company.

THUS and CTM are fond of quoting EBITDA, but they are still loss
making in an increasingly competitive environment.

Melnibone.

Melnibone
Interestingly you compare Thus with TWT a little unfair I would say
On one major point alone , Compare the massive debts of TWT when they went to the dogs. Thus does not suffer from that kind of millstone and unless we are seriously being mislead Thus will be in profit early next year

I'm not saying that THUS will go bust. I'm bringing the possibility
to the attention of folk who are buying purely for the reason
of a takeover bid.

If it can happen to 'biggies' like TWT, Marconi etc... as well as
companies like Redstone and Energis, then you can't rule out the
possibility of a minnow like THUS.

If you make less than you spend then eventually you will go broke.
THUS and CTM are still losing money in a competitive environment.
And it's not getting any easier.

You can only reduce Capex so far. If THUS doesn't get the growth
then it won't make money. By buying THUS, you are putting your
faith in the company continuing to grow at the expense of the
competition.

IMHO, there's got to be less risky areas to invest your money
that will give you a return without the possibility of a total
loss. If you want to take the risk for the possible greater reward
then that's cool. Just be aware of the risk.

Melnibone.

I have taken this statement from a collegue on the www.iii.co.uk site.
Interesting reading ......

From looking at TD Waterhouse the analyst most likely to have upgraded either HSBC or Smith Barney Citigroup who issues notes on Thus in July and August respectively.

I know HSBC had Thus as a hold for a while when it was at 37p so they must be thinking the fundamentals have not changed much and the share price is worth a flutter at the current levels.

Smith Barney's recommendation has a 1S next to it, not sure what this means any ideas?

In terms of analyst estimates for THUS here goes

HSBC buy with 2005 eps estimated at -0.55p and a loss of 10.55 million they are predicting a 2006 profit of 4.93 million and earnins per share of 0.26

Concensus view of 9 analysts is that for the year ending March 2005

Thus will report a loss of 10.78 million

Consensus view of same analysts for year ending 2006 is profits of 6.45 million.

Not sure how accurate this figures will be in light of the sale of the contact centre business and impending sale of the interactive division.

All in all the picture does look quite positive, but like a lot of people have mentioned with the oil price as it is, negative market sentiment etc prices are being depressed, further pressure is added by shorters, but you can't blame them for that.

Hope that helps.

PS A plug for TD Waterhouse they have some great and very easy to understand research on their site.

Two days of enormous volume and today a mere 2 1/2 million, any thoughts?

This is interesting
http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=8730130&sort=whole

Same minds here Rampage, just copied the article:

i wrote to the company mainly as I am about to receive broadband, as to whether the offer for shareholders was still available. I also suggested as they had cash in the bank of 30million plus they might consider a buy back scheme the price being at these levels. I did get a very nice reply. It didn't actually tell me anything I didn't know, but you may as well read it anyway


You are not alone in finding the share price performance of THUS not
only
very disappointing but also very frustrating. Please rest assured that
he
company is not about to go bankrupt - as you rightly note, we have
significant cash on our balance sheet and have been cash generative for
the
last three quarters.

Let me try to explain some of the reasons behind the share price fall.

As you are aware, we issued our year end results at the beginning of
May.
We believed these to be a strong set of results showing accelerating
revenue
growth - something very few of our peer group have been able to achieve
and
generating cash for the last two quarters of the financial year.
Despite
the company meeting, or actually exceeding, market expectations, the
market
reacted adversely - worried about the tough market conditions in the
telecoms arena. Sentiment was, and still remains, negative on the
sector as
a whole. This is due to a severe profits warning by COLT, after which
our
share price was also hit, and what the market considered less than
impressive results from other operators.

In July we made a trading statement to coincide with our AGM where we
announced the sale of our Contact Centre business - one of our non-core
divisions; investment in advanced technology and local loop unbundling,
that
our non-core interactive division was not performing as well as
previously
but that our core telecoms business revenue was continuing to
accelerate and
we were continuing to generate cash. As a result of these
announcements,
consensus forecasts had to be changed (when selling a business, you
obviously no longer receive revenue from it) and some parts of the
market
considered this to be a profits warning and hence our share price was
negatively affected again. The message of our accelerating core
business
seemed to be lost in the mix. Since then, sentiment has continued to
be
negative due to the investor lack of confidence in sector revenues and
the
pressure on gross margins following other operators disappointing
trading
updates. As THUS is a liquid stock, we seem to get hit hard with every
piece of negative news from other operators.

The management's interests are closely aligned with shareholders and
whilst
they cannot control the vagaries of the stock market, they can control
the
performance of the company. They are spending a significant amount of
time
with investors explaining why they believe THUS will continue to
perform
well and how it differentiates itself from other operators through its
product and service offering. They are doing all they can to ensure
that
THUS continues to produce good results, despite difficult trading
conditions, and they are confident that they will achieve good results.
They hope that on delivery of these results, the market will reflect
the
company's true worth.

A buy back scheme is obviously something for the Board of Directors to
deliberate when they consider the circumstances to be appropriate and I
am
sure they will do so if those circumstances arise. The Board is in
place to
act in the best interest of the shareholders in overseeing the business
and
how it is financed.

Due to lack of take-up, the shareholder offer on broadband was not
renewed
this year but even without it, I believe that you will find THUS's
rates
very competitive and we do of course, pride ourselves on our service.
The
shareholder offer will be something that we reconsider next year again.

Thank you for the interest you have taken in THUS.

Yours sincerely,

Samantha Ashworth
Investor Relations Manager
THUS Group plc



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Volumes will go up as the price comes down.
Folk trade in position size and look for % gains,
not the actual number of shares.

IE, today's volume is currently approx 360,000.
Nothing to get excited about really.

What would be more worrying was if the Bears have closed
most of their shorts with the price not having moved up.
Which appears to have maybe happened on Mon/Tue.

Melnibone.

Thanks Melnibone

Whilst we're on the the subject of position size and
percentages. If THUS was to drop from the 15p support/resistance
area to the next 12p Support/resistance area, then you are talking
about a 20% loss of capital.

Which is why I keep saying, why don't you all find something less
risky to go LTBH on.
Unless of course you are in the business of taking big risks with
your hard earned dosh hoping for the big reward.
Down to all your own individual aims and strategy I suppose.

Melnibone.