Just cannot understand recent SP volatility!

As a Dana shareholder I find it difficult to
find any reason to sell, even at current price. The Company has recently
entered a number of agreements which will have
considerable benefits:-

1. Reserves from 31st December 2003 of 123.7 mmboe
must now be in the region of 200.0 mmboe.( 100 million
North Sea 70 million Mauritana 30 million Russia ).

2. Production will rise to 25-27 thousand boepd in
2005 from 18 thousand in 2004.

3. At 30th June 2004 a Net cash position which will
have been enhanced significantly year to date.

4. Exciting exploration potential.

5. Management that seem to know what they are doing
with an excellent chief executive.

6. Recent deals by other oil companies have seen oil
assets bought at prices between 7-11 dollars a barrel
( see last weeks Investors Chronicle ) Dana must have
a value well in excess of the current 300 million.

I am holding firm and looking towards 800 pence.

Any other views out there?

Good old Dana my only blue today.

Interesting trading update released this morning which imo was positive but the sp has been hit by 2 1m+ sales so far today.

A lot of drilling to come throughout the year and production targets raised, with pleanty of cash to cover the drilling program.

Steve,

Like you I have a long term core holding of DNX which won't be swayed by market gyrations, - maybe I was being modest about my modest holding, lol. Aside from today's sells (which could be viewed as positive - into strength?), I am reassured by the broker upgrades earlier this week.

Since the Manchester am event I have used Sputnik's Sharescope setting to get another view of FTSE350 stocks generally - basically 1-year line chart looking for with-trend support and resistance. It works rather well. Just now DNX is testing a slightly falling resistance line around 10. If it breaks and pulls back I'll add to my holding with a long CFD to try and ride up the rise.

It is such a volatile stock that I'll only get out my microscope if support around 9 is broken.

Edward

support at 900p breached ?

still not worried

Worrier

not worried at all, topped up with some more at 898p this morning.

Appears as though Fidelity are increasing there holding

Still got mine too.

fund dil
Still in there with you.

Added long CFD

Results on 28th March, nice blue day on the SP

fund
Cheers

added again this morning 946

Looks good timing Edward, a couple of stronger days for the SP and sitting on the 1000p level ahead of tomorrows results

fund
What's your make on the results and do you think the share should be split say 1 to 4 making the sp 265p to bring in the small punters.

Net profit for the year to December 2005 rose 406 pct to 64.2 mln stg, while pretax profit grew 232 pct to 107.8 mln stg. Turnover climbed 51 pct to 165.6 mln stg.

Driver

no need for a split imo, they might as well wait until its 20 a share before they worry about that ;-)

my take on results is that they were extremely positive, both in terms of the historic numbers and also in terms of the forward exploration plans:

Current year EPS of 80p gives a current PE ratio of 13.4. However, if you look at the half yearly splits, the second half EPS was 50p which puts it on a second half PE ratio of just over 10. With average production for the year 19,700 boepd and this forecast to be 40,000 in 2 years time, potentially the forward Pe of 2 years time is approx 5 or 6 (assuming oil prices stay at current levels as all production is unhedged currently). Factor into this the current cash generation (107m this year) and balance (net funds of 92m), which gives them the funding to back up the drilling programme (and most of the rigs are already booked).

In terms of reserves, net 25 million boe were added to proven and probable reserves (all from the North Sea) making 111m in total. Total reserves of 235m. Future reserves is now where a lot of the focus will be switched, with some very exciting prospects within the drilling programme. In 2006 11 exploration and appraisal wells are planned (10 have rigs booked). Of these, 4 are offshore in Africa and all 4 have company transforming potential (all of these are second half of the year). With particpation in upto 40 wells by the end of 2008, the total potential reserves targetted is 2.1 billion barrels net - 10% of this would double current reserves!!! The only slight negative on this front was the news re Algeria, with the agreement with Gaz de France not being permitted to divest currently.

Long term the company continues to perform and grow and the plans are clearly in place for the forseeable future for this to continue. I still think there is considerable upside to the current share price with limited downside (the obvious risks being a falling oil price and drilling failures) and will continue to hold these for the long term.

From a point and figure chart perspective, the day before results saw a triple top breakout, combined with a breakout from a triangle pattern, a strengthening on the continual uptrend. This is also confirmed with the line chart having broken out to an all time high. Targets can be seen at 1110p (near term) and 1460p (medium term)

Dana Petroleum on track with output target as FY profit soars UPDATE

(Adding comments from CEO)
LONDON (AFX) - North Sea oil and gas producer Dana Petroleum PLC said it is
on course to deliver its production target of 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent
per day by end-2007 after it unveiled a dramatic increase in annual profits.
Net profit for the year to December 2005 rose 406 pct to 64.2 mln stg, while
pretax profit grew 232 pct to 107.8 mln stg. Turnover climbed 51 pct to 165.6
mln stg.
Average production rose 6 pct to a record 19,683 boepd, which it sold for
around 42.24 usd per barrel, up 43 pct from a year earlier. Oil accounted for up
to 90 pct of output.
Dana said an accelerated drilling and field development campaign will bring
output to over 40,000 boepd by end-2007.
With crude prices still hovering above 60 usd per barrel, chairman Colin
Godall said: "The outlook is very bright."
Another three North Sea fields will be on stream later this year, taking the
group's total number of producing sites to 15.
The three fields will start production between September and December,
lifting Dana's overall output to "at least 30,000 boepd" by year-end, or an
average of 27,500 boepd for 2006, Tom Cross told AFX News in a phone interview.
"Right now we're producing 28,000 boepd from our existing fields," he said.
Dana has 11 fields in the North Sea, which contributed 91 pct of overall
output, equivalent to 17,901 boepd in 2005, up 10 pct year-on-year. The rest
came from the South Vat-Yoganskoye field in Western Siberia.
It will be drilling seven wells in the North Sea, two in Kenya and two in
Mauritania this year.
"We have all the drilling rigs and equipment in place," said Cross.
Production should reach an average of 48,000 boepd by 2008, even without the
benefits of acquisitions or further exploration success, he added.
Dana currently has proved and probable reserves of 111.5 mln boe and
recoverable hydrocarbon resources of 235.8 mln boe. It will spend 140 mln stg
this year within its existing fields and exploration licences, around 100 mln
stg of which will go to its development activities in the North Sea.
Annual spending over the next two years will likely be similar to the 2006
budget, which will be funded by internally generated cash, added Cross
Dana is planning to drill up to 40 wells through 2008, targeting 2.1 bln
barrels of net potential reserves.
The group is not worried about the increasing North Sea taxes. At his
pre-Budget report, Chancellor Gordon Brown doubled the supplementary charge for
North Sea producers, effectively raising the industry's corporation tax to 50
pct from 40 pct.
Cross said the UK taxes are the same anywhere else, with some countries even
charging as much as 80 pct.
"North Sea is still a profitable business even with the increased taxes," he
said.
Dana has no immediate plans to pay dividends while it invests heavily on oil
search, he stressed.

These latest comments from Tom Cross make the situation look even better. Current production is already 50% higher than the average 2006 production and is likely to remain as high if not higher by next year end and the target for end of 2008 (nearly 3 yrs away) is 48,000 boepd - this equates to 3 times as much as the 2005 average!!!

Fund
Thanks for your reply very encouraging, looks like its a hold then or even a top up on the dips if there is any.

Dana Petroleum lost 18p to 1050p. After the market closed, Gaz de France said it was cancelling a deal to sell Dana a 20% stake in an Algerian gas field after objections from the Algerian state oil and gas company, Sonatrach, but will go ahead with asset swaps in Britain, Egypt and Mauritania

No comment from Dana rather diappointing. Sold my trading batch this am though holding onto the long term ones in the ISA

Also a sell recommendation from IC today on all accounts, though they have been saying sell from about 600p lol

Huge selling today with over 35m shares changing hands - thats 12% of all the shares in issue - not a great sign on a large down day

edit : on all accounts MHR placed there 17.7m shares into the market today