how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

Bloomberg have been reporting all day that these last 2 up days
have been on low volume.

Down days are good volume.....

Ring any bells from 2000/2003 ?

Still looking for swing highs and then shorts.
Relief rally and Bear profit taking to suck in fresh Bulls, IMHO.

Melnibone.

Mel: agree with you as I said on crocs thread better to short from a higher level.and be an Injun -Just scalp as we all know the markets are driven by fear and greed-not entirely on crude oil which incidentally has come off highs slightly.

rgds
zarif

Dow playing on anarrow range at the moment no need to go for a scratch trade and get clawed to death.

Just closed a brilliant short on the dow and taken out a small omg.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

8:30 AM ET. Initial Jobless Claims (expected -6K; previous +13K)

8:30 AM ET. USDA Weekly Grain Export Sales Report

10:00 AM ET. DJ-BTM Business Barometer (previous +0.4%)

10:00 AM ET. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (previous +0.17)

10:00 AM ET. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators
(previous +0.3%)

12:00 PM ET. Philadelphia Fed Index (previous 32.5)

The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS

The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight and is
challenging initial resistance marked by the 10-day moving average
crossing at 1402.85. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning
bullish signaling that a low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 1423.75 would signal that a low has likely
been posted. If the decline off April's high continues, a test of March's
low crossing at 1369.50 is possible later this spring. The June NASDAQ
100 was steady at 1396 as of 6:46 AM ET. Overnight action sets the
stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index
later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was slightly higher in overnight trading due to
short covering as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average
crossing at 1090.79. Closes above last week's high crossing at 1102.50
are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Stochastics and the
RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a low is in or is
near. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 1075.30 would
renew this spring's decline while opening the door for a test of weekly
support crossing at 1070.04 later this month. The June S&P 500 Index
was up 0.20 pts. at 1087 as of 6:47 AM ET. Overnight action sets the
stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later
this morning.

Afternoon guys -Here is a copy of analysis on equities by R. Balan of Saxo Bank.

Good read while Killing Time before the US open.

rgds
zarif

Stock Market View:

May 20, 2004 - Europe



- Asian stocks fell after a gain in oil and gasoline futures renewed concern that higher energy prices may damp global economic growth. Exporters such as Toyota Motor Co. and oil users including Singapore Airlines Ltd. led declines. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 850 stocks in the region, shed 1.4 percent to 84.21 at 1:37 p.m. in Tokyo. The index had its biggest gain in two years yesterday after crude fell for two straight days. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average shed 1.6 percent. The Topix index slipped 0.3 percent.


- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may as soon as this weekend approve Saudi Arabia's plan to boost oil output quotas because of concerns that near record-high prices will slow economic growth. Oil ministers from the 11-nation group will discuss the proposal to raise the OPEC limit by 1.5 million barrels a day, or 6.4 percent, during an oil forum in Amsterdam starting Saturday, President Purnomo Yusgiantoro said. OPEC states including Kuwait, Qatar, Iran and Indonesia have backed the Saudi plan. Crude oil has gained 26 percent this year in New York, peaking May 17 at $41.85 a barrel, as economic expansion in the U.S. and Asia spurred the fastest growth in oil demand since 1988.





Equity Market Summary -


Rising oil prices halted the rally in equities on Wednesday. June crude fell below $40 per-barrel mark in the morning, only to reverse course and close at an all-time high, as oil and gas inventory data did little to pacify investors' trepidation with tight supplies and rising demand. Strong gains in equities evaporated over the course of two hours and selling pressure continued into the close. A couple of positive earnings announcements released after the close of regular trading yesterday provided the buying pressure early on, but the bullish news was not enough to keep the Dow and S&P out of the red. The Nasdaq finished flat on the day. Dow -30.80 at 9,937.71, Nasdaq +0.35 at 1,898.17, S&P 500 -2.81 at 1,088.68.

Leadership to the upside was broad-based with laggards being identified in terms of sectors that are showing the smallest gains, but volume was only moderate at best, speaking to participants' lack of conviction to the move higher. The Nasdaq's failure to lift above the top of its recent trading range at 1037 (session high 1036) cooled the market's advance and the participants' enthusiasm even further. With two hours of trade remaining, selling of S&P futures drove the market lower, the uninspiring volume totals and Friday's monthly options expiration exaggerating the downmove.. At market close, sector leaders were networking, semiconductor, communications equipment, gold, coal, iron & steel sectors. The laggards of note were the biotech and REIT groups.

Aside from the energy inventory figures there was no other market moving data. The weekly confidence indicator showed a modest improvement in sentiment, while housing data confirmed that mortgage applications are indeed falling in response to rising interest rates.

European equity markets ended Wednesday sharply higher. The FTSE 100 in London added 1.3% while the DAX in Frankfurt finished the day up 2.2% and the CAC 40 advanced 2.1%. European equity markets were propelled higher by a strong opening on Wall Street. Continental bourses were driven higher by technology and financial issues while London saw a rally in mining stocks.




Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index extended gains to 3880 but will likely open sharply lower today to adjust to the lower levels of U.S. equities which collapsed after DAX trading was closed. The downtrend should be sustained until next week. Over all, the longer-term technical tone remains weak -- further sell-offs still due further down the road -- the objective may be the area of 3660 - 3650 next week. But strong support awaits at the mid-3600s, and a new bull market cycle may commence from there.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index rallied back to 4472, but counter-trend it still is. The index should open lower to adjust to U.S. closing levels, and we still see the index falling further until next week -- possibly to 4320, but more likely to 4290 area. A new bull market cycle should commence from there.


- S&P 500 - the index did reach 1106, but has been sharply lower since the -- the downtrend should reassert further and may fall further towards 1070 - 1060 in the next few days. Support will likely appear at those levels -- expect to see the index firm up and may commence a new upcycle.


- Dow - The blue chips did extend gains further to 10,125. But the downtrend reasserted and the average will probably fall further from here, take out the 9825 support and push through to 9750. A new bull market cycle should commence from there.


- NDX 100 - the index did rise further towards 1426, which nonetheless turned out to be countertrend, as expected. The index should eventually follow-through to the 1370 base then further to 1330. A new bull market should initiate from there.


- Nikkei - the countertrend rally made it back only to 11,045, and indications are that the downtrend has resumed. The sell-off should accelerate further in the next few days with 10,200 - 10,000 asobjectives. A new bull market cycle initates from there.


- Hang Seng - the index did correct back to 11,500, and has likely resumed the downtrend. The sell-off targets 10.500 next, but a new bull market upcycle should initiate there

Hi all: grief notes from Tom Hougards email.

Market in positive land atm and seems to be holding around 9950 area.
Will it shoot up or drop like a stone? anybodys guess as it option expiration week and anything goes in this week.
re: SNP500
regains 1090- there has been a lot of back-and-filling
Below 1080 would mean a retest of 1075.
If 1075 goes then last man turns the light off because it means a major failure of the market and a trip to the 1030.


spend a little time looking at the big picture again. Yesterday we failed at the 1105.25 which was a perfect 38.2% retracement. There was a lot fighting over the 1100 area but once it broke the bulls gave up. We are now back in no-mans land. The model points to exactly that and although a model is an attempt to describe reality which has not yet happened it has been very precise.



Conclusion:



My map of the day had us going up in the final hours yesterday. Instead we dropped like a rock. I had a big drop this morning which makes me wonder if my timing intra-day is out by half a day. For today I got a big drop on the open, and then a rally later in the day. This rally is according to the strategy to be shorted for a lower Friday. This is the plan as it stands.



I will watch 1090 today. If we get back above 1090 the bulls might make another attempt on the 1100. Below 1080 should retest lows. 1075 has to hold for the market to be remotely bullish.

Afternoon everybody:
options Expire today.The EU bourses are all slightly higher today -nothing significant.Choppy trading this week to say the least.many times safer to sell the mini rallies.
The Black Gold climbing High.etc etc.
Low Volumes -hence the whiplashes and than splat downs.
Also today the Futures on the Ym high -just same as few days ago than Tanked down good style.As i said in earlier post "historically when the Futures soar they soon seem to fizzle out and then even a feather will bring the pack of card down.

trade wisely and safely.
If in doubt stay out as by default it saves you money!!!!!!


rgds
zarif

Dow going north at the moment.But will it stay above 10K. We all know the market is driven by emotion primarily fear and greed add to this the option and index expiries.best to scalp in and out.
rgds
zarif

.

Morning all. I have seen a Double bottom on the Dow (weekly chart) and also on a Point & Figure chart. I read this as a possible move to 10300 which coincides with the R3 of the weekly pivot level. All imho dyor etc.

Thanks for the heads up on that IT.
Will check it out.

Don't you mean on the Daily, Insider?
My weekly (end of day data) looks bearish.

Look on stockcharts.com select Dow then gallery, you will then get the daily, weekly (you will see the DB) and P&F chart (you will then see the DB again). Hope that helps.

Looks more like a lower low to me Insider.
But what do I know?

Snoball et al:
Good afternoon just got in and am watching the action.Looks more downside to come -might just shoot up then plop down.Lets see what happens.

rgds
zarif

ooops wrong Dow!!
edit: corrected now.
Still looks like a lower low.

Any other opinions?

Afternoon zarif.

Morning.
Double bottom or not it looks like the Dow may be headed
back up to 10300 as Insider suggested.

Afternoon all:
Sorry didnot post anything or trade yesterday as a mark of respect for David Anderson(croc) who passed away yesterday.

rgds
zarif

Ps: below is the comments from R.balan of Saxo bank.

Stock Market View:

May 26, 2004 - Europe



- Asian stocks rose after U.S. consumer and home sales reports bolstered confidence that the world's largest economy will keep growing even as oil prices rise. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 850 stocks in the region, gained 1.4 percent to 87.36 at 11:30 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 2.3 percent and the Topix index rose 1.5 percent. Stocks on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday had their broadest rally in a decade. All stock benchmarks open in Asia advanced, except those in China. Markets in South Korea and Hong Kong are closed today for holidays.



- Japan's trade surplus narrowed for the second month in April as demand for factory and consumer goods boosted imports to a record. The trade surplus shrank to 985.5 billion yen ($8.81 billion), seasonally adjusted, from a revised 1 trillion yen in March, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo. The surplus had been expected to shrink to 892 billion yen, according to the median of 13 forecasts in a survey.




- Crude oil futures in New York rose for the second day in three on speculation that production increases pledged by Saudi Arabia won't be sufficient to restore low gasoline supplies before peak summer driving demand in the U.S. U.S. gasoline demand is 3.5 percent higher than the same time last year, while supplies in the week ended May 14 were 2.3 percent lower than a year earlier, according to the U.S. Energy Department. Crude oil reached a record $41.83 a barrel yesterday even after Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, said it would boost output to 9 million barrels a day next month to help lower prices.




Equity Market Summary -


U.S. equities soared, encouraged by a moderation in the price of crude oil, resulting in its first significant gains in more than a month. The Dow jumped 1.6%, finishing above 10,000 for the first time in seven trading days, while the S&P added 1.6% and the Nasdaq soared 2.2%. Two key economic indicators were released, although with the markets preoccupied by energy prices, both failed to significantly sway investors. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index realized a small gain in May while existing home sales soared beyond expectations, posting their second best month on record.



Oil futures traded lower earlier, and stocks got the push they needed; after a lackluster morning, stocks trended steadily higher and buyers came out of the woodwork like they haven't for many sessions. Volume wasn't particularly heavy, but the gains were extremely widespread -- advancers led decliners by a wide margin on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.



The morning economic numbers had little impact, as May Consumer Confidence was little changed from April, and existing home sales strength was seen as not all that surprising, and probably temporary.

European equity markets ended the day lower. The FTSE 100 in London shed 0.3%, while the DAX in Frankfurt surrendered 1.0% and the CAC 40 in Paris ended the day 0.5% lower. European markets were lower after a subdued opening on Wall Street. While crude oil prices receded from their record highs marked yesterday, concerns about the adverse effect of high energy prices on corporate profits were lingering. Losses were largest among telecom shares. The IFO Business Climate Index for Germany, which showed a marginal decline for May, also failed to provide any momentum as the outlook calls for continuing, but fragile, growth in Europe’s largest economy.




Equity Technicals:




- DAX Index - the index found support at 3810 and may rally back towards the 3900 area today. The rally may even extend to 4000 late in the week. Nonetheless, we may yet get another sell-off to the 3710 base further out. However, prospects of further declines to 3660 - 3650 may be in jeopardy -- a deeper correction is running out of time. Strong support at 3700 may initiate a new bull market cycle from there.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index may rally back to 4470 area. Nonetheless, we still see further downmoves to the 4365 base; however, 4320 downside objective may be out of reach as time is running out on the correction phase. Firm support at 4365 may kick off a new bull market cycle should from there.


- S&P 500 - further upmove beyond 1120 today suggests that the 1060 objective may not be attainable in the current trading cycle. Nonetheless, we still see another probe of 1080 baseline after which support will likely appear --and expect to see a new upcycle initiate.


- Dow - further rally above 10,250 today suggests that the 9700 downside objective may be out of contention. Nonetheless, another probe of 9800 base may follow from there -- where a new bull market cycle should commence.


- NDX 100 - the index may rally further and if 1480 is taken out, then the 1330 downside target won't be seen in this trading cycle. Nonetheless, another go at 1375 baseline should occur thereafter, then a new bull market should initiate from there.


- Nikkei - the countertrend recovery will probably extend further and we may see further upmoves to 11,400 - 11,450. Expect a quick decline thereafter, perhaps a retest of the low, followed by a new trip to 10,700.


- Hang Seng - the uptick may yet extend to 12,000. Nonetheless, the downtrend should resume later -- the sell-off targets 10.500 next, but a new bull market upcycle should initiate there.





==============================================



May 25, 2004 - New York



- Business confidence in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, dropped for the third month in four in May as stagnating consumer spending and higher oil prices threatened to restrain an economic recovery. The Munich-based Ifo institute said its confidence index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, declined to 96.1 from 96.3 in April. Economists predicted a reading of 96. The benchmark DAX 30 stock index dropped as much as 1.5 percent. The biggest increase in exports since the end of 2000 kept Germany's economy growing in the first three months as consumer spending failed to increase for the fourth straight quarter. Higher oil prices and health-care costs boosted the inflation rate to the highest in more than two years this month, adding another deterrent to household demand.


- German inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in more than two years in May after the price of oil surged to a record this month. The annual inflation rate rose to 2.1 percent, the highest since January 2002, from 1.6 percent in April, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said. Economists had expected an rate of 2 percent, the median of forecasts in a survey showed. From a month ago, prices gained 0.3 percent. Higher oil prices are making fuel-related products more expensive and may push inflation across the dozen-nation euro region above the ECB's 2 percent ceiling ``over the short term,'' the bank said earlier this month.


- Precious metals advanced across the board in Europe on Tuesday morning with gold benefiting as oil price concerns sent the dollar lower, while silver donned its base metals hat for a rally, but dealers said more gains would be needed to confirm an uptrend. Oil price worries dented the dollar across the board as investors fretted the high cost of crude could apply the brakes to the U.S. economy and keep interest rates lower for longer -- highlighting gold's appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty.



U.S. Data Preview:


1) Conference Board consumer confidence for May (Tuesday, 10:00 am ) - The consensus calls for the Conference Board consumer confidence index to rise to 94.1 from April’s 92.9.

Several factors are impacting on consumer moods : Gasoline prices, which have just breached the psychologically important $2/gallon price, would presumably be a key negative influence. Rising interest rates and an uptick in consumer price inflation, may also add to the overall drag on consumer moods. Polls also indicate that the situation in Iraq is also an important concern.

2. Existing home sales for April (Tuesday, 10:00 am ) - The consensus calls for existing home sales to slip to 6.4 million annualized units from March’s extremely high 6.48 million units.

Existing home sales tend to lag new home sales and mortgage applications by a month or two and, thus, the relevant guidance would come from March data. Mortgage rates hit a new low for the year in March and applications jumped 6.7%; moreover, new home sales soared by 8.9% in March. Unfavorable weather conditions in January and early February likely pushed some of the sales associated with these January and February applications to March. The fading of this temporary lift suggests a modest decline in April turnove





Indications in the stock market :




Off their earlier lows, the futures indications continue to trade below fair value and point to a lower open in the cash market. There are no economic reports in the pre-open session, however the Consumer Confidence report for May and the Existing Home Sales report for April will be reported at 10:00 EST.

U.S. stock-index futures dropped after OPEC ministers said oil prices may remain above $30 a barrel, rekindling concern that higher energy costs will crimp corporate profits and limit consumer spending. Two-thirds of the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell in Europe, including Intel Corp., McDonald's Corp. and SBC Communications Inc. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in June slid 4.2 to 1092.40 at 11:46 a.m. in London. Dow futures shed 35 to 9935 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures lost 8 to 1410.

European stocks fell after OPEC said oil prices may stay above $30 a barrel, crimping economic and corporate earnings growth. The Stoxx 50 shed 1 percent to 2647.38 as of 11:24 a.m. in London. The Stoxx 600 lost 0.9 percent. The Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 12 countries using the euro, slid 1 percent. Benchmark indexes fell in all 17 Western European markets, except Ireland and Norway. France's CAC 40 Index dropped 0.7 percent. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index lost 0.7 percent. June futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 shed 0.8 percent to 2684.





Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index extended Monday's bearish tone and has been to 3810; the sell-off will probably extend further today towards the area of 3785. Expect a recovery back to 3825 thereafter. Nonetheless, the countertrend rally is probably over and the sell-off should shortly accelerate lower with focus at the 3710 base. Further sell-offs still due further down the road -- the primary objective may be the area of 3660 - 3650 next week. But strong support awaits at the mid-3600s, and a new bull market cycle may commence from there.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index opened sharply lower and has been to 4395. The sell-off will likely extend further today and we may see the likes of 4385 - 4380. Expect a bounce back to 4410 - 4415 thereafter. But be that as it may, the downtrend has likely resumed with the 4355 base as target. We still expect to see the index falling further next week -- possibly to 4320, but more likely to 4290 area. A new bull market cycle should commence from there.


- S&P 500 - further declines should follow today which may eventually reach the 1076 low, then towards 1060 in the next few days. Support will likely appear at those levels -- expect to see the index firm up and may commence a new upcycle.


- Dow - the blue chips resumes the downtrend today -- expect further declines to the 9840 base, then should eventually push through to 9750. A new bull market cycle should commence from there.


- NDX 100 - the index should sell-off below 1410 and may eventually follow-through to the 1370 base then further to 1330. A new bull market should initiate from there.


- Nikkei - the countertrend recovery made it almost to 11,200. The sell-off may have started and should accelerate further thereafter in the next few days with 10,200 - 10,000 as objectives. A new bull market cycle initates from there.


- Hang Seng - the uptick may yet extend to 11,800, but odds slimmer now than yesterday. Nonetheless, the downtrend should resume later -- the sell-off targets 10.500 next, but a new bull market upcycle should initiate there.