ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

Eric

Seymour Pierce (now DGT!). It's Seymour Pierce Ellis who are now owned by DGT. I believe the continuing separate entity Seymour Pierce cover ASC.

quite likely a first dividend - with a new warehouse for Xmas 2008 and expansion overseas already flagged, I would not necessarily expect a dividend just yet. Alternatively, it is possible they would declare a dividend to strengthen the SP and then raise new funds at the higher price to pay for the continuing expansion.

Happy ChristmASC and a ProsperASOS New Year

sd

The Shark is always up for a challenge, as you know, Eric! However, if I have learned nothing else from the last 18 months, one thing is for sure... No plans to waste a single penny on CFD's ever again. But I do have 3 punts which I would happily compete vs. ASOS. What about starting your idea with a New Year's Day Challenge...?

Good opening to new year. Expecting run up, as forecast by SP, to 120p by trading figures on 16th. These should resolve the gross margin issue as well as confirming the 60% trading uplift (note that comparison will include period of fire impact). On margin, I suspect the reason for downturn in H1 figure would be impact of on-going sales after re-commencement of trading. I think they will still be aiming at 50% margin less returns.

The most important issue as we then run up to the finals should then be the investment view of forward projections. With the internet market running generally at 30% to 40% and share of retail fashion market in selected area still only 20%, I can't see why forward growth should drop below 50%; i.e. 12m after tax in 2010(15p per share). The best investment strategy is clearly to tuck them away. But I also see that this message will be taken on board during the coming year and pe will increase to around 40. No reason why not 2 this year.

Eric

Almost made it to 120p! Volumes middling, around 535K shares. The 50K trade (marked as ?) definitely a buy taking the price at time of transaction. The 150K trade is a T which I think is Trade so may be ignored or included as Buy on same basis of delayed posting. Key factor is that all trades were one way suggesting that a trend line has been established and sellers will hold off rather than fighting it. Anyone see press comment?

yes eric was one of the express shares for 2007 ddid not see article

Thanks Woodie. MMs defensive opening at 124.5p middle price brought out some profit-taking. However, strong balance of buying at 123p so should make more headway.

Eric - HNY to you. T is a Worked Trade, informed to authorities at placing but not reported until filled. Allows a large - typically professional - trade to be worked through without upsetting the market (by which they do not mean you and me!).

122p today as I write. Any guesses where the next peak will be before a retracement?

If you are guestimating 12m after tax = 15p per share in 2010, I reckon the PE will still be at 20ish, so an SP of 300p - approx 26% compound growth over 4 years. Pretty good reason to hold through thick and thin.

sd Thanks for explanation of the T trade. Would you expect the price quoted to be an average price? The alternative, my own experience, is thata price is agreed when the contract is made and the broker takes the risk.

On the forecast model given, the pe in 2010 would depend on the then current growth rate. Clearly, at some stage it will slow down but it could still be 40% then which would justify a pe more like 30 and a price of some 450p. However, the key question is when this sort of potential will be taken on board generally by lead investors. John Marshall of Shares is a very keen advocate. We could well be going through the process of realignment at present which could be encouraged by the Xmas trading figures. Anyway, that's what my CFD is assuming (and hoping)!

no probs eric taken from the times last week
Robert Cole of Tempus (Times Online):

ASOS, an AIM-listed stock, gives the portfolio its most obvious exposure to the consumer economy. The acronym stands for as seen on screen, and the company is an internet-based retail platform targeted at younger shoppers. Internet shopping, perhaps, came of age this Christmas. ASOS, conceivably, may find itself the target of takeover approaches as one or another established high street retailer seeks to reinforce its own online presence.

Ten to follow/Robert Coles tips for 2007:

ASOS 111p

BSS 432p

Compass 290p

Cranswick 909p

GlaxoSmithKline 13.44

Intertek 833p

ITE 174p

Johnson Matthey 14.09

RBS 19.93

Venture Production 883p

Thanks again, Woodie. I think Tempus has a decent following and would have more impact than the Express. Not a bad portfolio.

agree eric nice mixture of stocks

John Marshall comment in Shares on ASOS. He reports that internet trading is ahead 50% year on year, ahead of the 35% prediction. "ASOS trading update, expected on 15 January, could well lead to profit upgrades." So he agrees with sd and myself - I expect he reads this thread! Positive buying volume again today although price hasn't moved. I am still looking for an investment upgrade around the statement. Whilst the decision will be taken with the finals, the movement to dividend is highly likely which has the advantage of bringing the share into the orbit of the dividend growth funds.

Eric,sd,woodie,and all.
HNY to all, Have been fighting my way back from a cardiac arrest in april last year and a house move in November which meant a isp change to tiscali. Have caught up with the thread at last and am delighted I held onto my holding which is now free of IHT. No change this morning so far, and concur with Eric and sd that its still a very good one to be in. SD

seadog happy new year to you as well ,looks like the s/p is set to be better then last year heres hoping

Welcome back, SeaDog. Sorry to hear about the problems but great that you are fit again. A nice little upward trend set in although perhaps you prefer waves. We are into new ground so no defined resistance level. The short term trend line is quite steep but there is also a defined long term trend line reflecting the on-going 50% turnover growth line. The short term trend line says 150p by the April prelims.

Eric

that will be nice eric

sd (the little dog!) Interested in your view on the short term and long term trend lines. 2004 saw the sp move from about 10p to 80p; 2005 from 50p to 110p; current trend started at 80p so doubling seems reasonable. Given the on-going 50%+ trading trend, the other view to take is where the pe should be going. Surely we should be looking for a pe of something like 40 following the results. Can you think of any parallels?

Welcome back Big Dog. I hope you're feeling fit and haven't had to many nasty shocks on rejoining the on-line service.

As to ASC, it's looking very good just now. My guess is the trading update on Mon Jan 15(?) needs to be top of the range to prevent a mild sell off/retracement (BORSON theory). After that the finals (4th July last year - could be a tad earlier without warehouse fire complications this year) will need to show strong forward looking statements to continue the rise to about 160p at which point I would expect considerable profit taking.

I divine this to be the natural peak short term from looking at the trading channel from Jan 04. The top line, passing through Dec 04 peak and parallel to the base line joining fairly consistently all the major troughs, crosses the chart at today's date just about at 150p. We should go a little bit beyond there as the top line rises further into the future.

Thereafter we will need to see greater than the current 28% broker forecast growth in EPS to sustain the historic PE of 47 by that heady stage. Otherwise we will drift down again to the bottom of the channel, boucing off at somewhere near 120p again. Then we should ride the next (fifth?) wave up to 190p (?!?) by next January.

Alternatively, just lock these away for 3 more years and don't fret about the ups and downs. Within the UK ASC seem to be able to cross produuct parameters into new market ranges with ease, then we have Europe to come and thereafter (I hope in that order) the US taken at the bottom of a retail cycle (rather than at the top of one now).

But then, being a small dog, I know nothing. My new year's resolution is to operate 15% trailing stop losses (which would have left me much better off had I used these on all my shares over the last two years). The other one is to limit speculative stocks to a much smaller portfolio share and concentrate on profitable, growth trading companies which behave so much more reliably and whose fundamentals can at least be attempted with a reasonable degree of competence.

Happy investing for 2007.

sd

A small dog but a big and wise brain! Pleased to see that your conclusions correspond to mine. The 28% growth figure is out-of-date and John Marshall (Shares) expects an updated forecast: he is good at keeping in touch with company executives. The straight line growth may be cautious as we are likely to see continued endemic growth of 50% plus - based on a mark up to 50% of internet growth rates.

Have just bought into EBTM (Everything but the Music). Very much modelled on ASOS, Quentin Griffiths is on both Boards and the head buyer is ex-ASOS. Interims on Wednesday. Interesting that funds raised by a placing are designated for European expansion. Have a look at the thread.

Eric

Eric - been following EBTM with intention of a close study of results when out. Promised myself I'd look at them before buying in.

My friend Donaferentes on another board had this to say:-

Interesting to know what QG's target price is before he starts to realise his profit. His selling down of his position in ASOS kept the SP in check for some considerable time - now he's out (or below 3%) the SP has rocketed recently.

Are you in for QG's timescale and return or looking for a longer burn on this one?

BTW thanks to GG for the holdings numbers. Post new equity issued multiply all those figures by 88% for the dilutive effects of the issue - unless any existing holders bought intot hte placing, but there should have been an RNS or two to reflect that by now if so. My guess was it went to a new bunch of private clients of their broker. In which case 52.8% above holders plus hopefully the newly issued 12% = 64.8% now tightly held. Free float of only 35.2% = 38.89m shares should cause a pretty volatile SP, so hold on tight if you are along for the ride! At an average paid price of 5p and 5,000 per PI, that's 389 PIs - a pretty small club into which to attract new memmbers as the word spreads.

I remain very interested, but am staying true to my declared posisiton of waiting for results before committing. What's a couple of pence between here and 50p!?!

GG says he has visited the company and is impressed by management and logistical resources.

BTW the shareholdings prior to above equity placing were as follows:

Andrew Burgess - 4.77%
Richard Breeden - 21.20%
Rod Carlton - 9.70%
Q Griffiths - 17.90%
John Morgan - 6.20%

Everyone except AB is management

Am I being too cautious waiting for results?

Edit: PS - apologies for OT. Normal ASC service will now be resumed.

sd