niceonecyril
- 04 Apr 2009 08:30
HARRYCAT
- 03 Jan 2012 11:51
- 1941 of 3666
Credit Suisse upgrade note.
"Upgrading to Outperform as Afren offers an improved risk/reward profile. With production from the Ebok field in Nigeria now stabilised at c40kbpd, we believe that a material 2012 drilling programme with a comfortable balance sheet offers an attractive entry point. Ramp-up delays at Ebok were not due to reservoir issues and with production now stabilised, we think that the problems are behind us. We remove our 15% risking on the Ebok field to arrive at our new target price of 130p/sh (from 114p/sh).
Comfortable financial position, but stable Ebok production in 2012 is important to de-lever Afren’s balance sheet beyond. We expect Afren to have $305m cash at end-2011. Going forward, Afren is dependent on strong cashflows from Ebok to reduce its end-2011E net debt of $581m. On our $105/bbl Brent estimate for 2012, we expect Afren to generate CFO of $903m and with its $305m cash position, it would be sufficient to fund $845m of 2012 cash uses. The potential worst case scenario remains if the banks scale back their reserve based lending facility that could restrict Afren’s growth plans.
Material resource upside potential. Up to 15 wells in 2012 offer a balance of high-risk, high-impact exploration (Keta in Ghana, OPL30 in Nigeria) and lower risk exploration/appraisal (Jebel Simrit wells in the Kurdish region of Iraq, Ebok/Okwok/OML115 wells in Nigeria). The 2012 programme is worth 28p/sh on our risked NAV with a blue sky upside of 170p/sh.
cynic
- 03 Jan 2012 12:16
- 1942 of 3666
glad i bought a few more first thing this morning
aldwickk
- 03 Jan 2012 12:58
- 1943 of 3666
Nice to have a cash pile ready for opportunity's like this , a Cynic
cynic
- 03 Jan 2012 13:22
- 1944 of 3666
indeed, though i have to keep reminding myself that caution (banking profits!) during 2012 must be the mantra
Balerboy
- 03 Jan 2012 14:38
- 1945 of 3666
please keep reminding me of that fact cyners....happy new year to all, hope you had a good time at the wolley:)
cynic
- 03 Jan 2012 15:17
- 1946 of 3666
we did indeed, not least celebrating that the original owner has now bought back the place (+ 6 others) following the demise of the vile von essen and his "evil empire"
cynic
- 03 Jan 2012 16:16
- 1947 of 3666
i have had 2 further bites of the cherry today, and though the 2nd one looked expensive, it's now very comfortably in the money and the order book looks very strong ..... all in all, a cracking start to the year
irlee57
- 03 Jan 2012 19:18
- 1948 of 3666
i have to keep reminding myself that caution (banking profits!) during 2012 must be the mantra .
this is the most important statement you'll hear this year.
thanks cynic for that.
gibby
- 03 Jan 2012 20:31
- 1949 of 3666
yep good reminder ref banking profits - would expect some more blue here tomorrow
we need to change the header title for afr - it should read:
tullow - is this the next AFREN lol :-)))
cynic
- 03 Jan 2012 20:34
- 1950 of 3666
just to show that i do try to follow my own discipline and advice, have banked today profits on dow and goog (but left aap running)
niceonecyril
- 05 Jan 2012 10:24
- 1951 of 3666
http://www.macquarie.com/dafiles/Internet/mgl/msg/iConference/documents/Europe/ExplorersAgenda.pdf
Explorers Conference this coming Monday - 9th January 2012.
Andaz Hotel, London.
Macquarie Connections.
Kurdistan, Mena, Frontier, Poland, South America, SE Asia, North Sea, Africa.
Breakfast & Welcome address 8.20 - 8.30am.
Kurdistan (Great Eastern Room).
Genel Energy 8.40am.
Afren 9.05am.
DNO 9.30am.
Western Zagros 9.55am.
http://www.macquarie.com/dafiles/Internet/mgl/msg/iConference/documents/Europe/ExplorersAgenda.pdf
cynic
- 05 Jan 2012 14:01
- 1952 of 3666
another good day at the ranch ...... GKP = whizz and suddenly AFR = bang, then add PFC to that too!
blanche
- 05 Jan 2012 14:16
- 1953 of 3666
Be good to finish above 1.08 today.
niceonecyril
- 09 Jan 2012 12:17
- 1954 of 3666
cynic
- 13 Jan 2012 16:23
- 1955 of 3666
in your excitement over gkp, you all seem to have foolishly taken your eye of this little charmer
halifax
- 13 Jan 2012 16:25
- 1956 of 3666
cynic we havnt next stop 125pish?
Balerboy
- 13 Jan 2012 16:29
- 1957 of 3666
I haven't cyners got my quota and holding on to it.,.
blanche
- 13 Jan 2012 16:49
- 1958 of 3666
Finished day high bodes well for monday
required field
- 16 Jan 2012 11:16
- 1959 of 3666
Starting to climb......worth 50% more in my opinion.
derwent
- 16 Jan 2012 14:59
- 1960 of 3666
starting to climb - could very easily double from here