Hi, are there any other active traders in the above areas that would like to join an MSN chat group. Maybe, you have one already? Basically, the purposes of this group would be to share any information relating to these sectors. Be it ideas on good stock picks. I think with the use of windows live messenger (as it is real time rather than bulletin board) all traders that participate in the group can benefit enormously. If you are interested, please mail me @ karljmurphy@gmail.com

Rather than start a new thread, will use this one to highlight some high divi yield mining stocks.
Haven't yet researched them in detail, but will add any comments later as I get more info.
The high yielders at the moment seem to be:
Anglo American 4.48%........Currently 1220p, 10 yr low 910p
Anglo Pacific 10.94%........Currently 91p, 10 yr low 77p
Antofagasta 8.13%........Currently 762p, 10 yr low 265p
BHPBiliton 4.76%.........Currently 1614p, 10 yr low 624p
Bisichi Mining 5.52%..........Currently 72p, at 10 yr low.
Central Asia Metals 5.59%..........Currently 160p, 5yr low 54p
Highland Gold 22.38%.........Currently 35p, 10 yr low 21p
Pan African Res 6.77%.........Currently 12p, 10 yr low 1.5p
Rio Tinto 4.37%........Currently 2181p, 10 yr low 1055p
Vedanta 6.78%..........Currently 597p, 10 yr low 374p

Canaccord note on the mining sector today:
"We prefer base metals to bulk commodities and precious metals. Our preferred commodities are zinc, copper and Platinum Group Metals, while in the bulks we believe that the iron ore market is closer to a turning point than metallurgical or thermal coal.
The impact on earnings forecasts and valuations is substantial. While we may see further commodity price weakness, there is a hint of stabilisation and in some cases we are beginning to see an embryonic recovery in commodity prices, suggesting that the worst may be over. However, we do not anticipate an imminent recovery in the fortunes of mining companies, and with substantially reduced opportunities for share buybacks or significant dividends, and with ongoing concerns about Chinese growth, we see little sign of a recovery in sentiment towards the sector in the near term. We note, however, that improving demand in mature economies could more than make up for any weakness in Chinese commodity uptake, while the next stage of Chinese demand growth could be regional infrastructure projects like the "New Silk Road" programme. For mining shares, while we do not expect progressive dividends to be cut, we note that in many cases these are not covered by free cashflow this year. We forecast that earnings will trough for most companies this financial year, with the exception of BHP Billiton, Vedanta and KAZ Minerals where we estimate trough earnings in FY2016.
We see no clear positive catalyst for the sector in the short term, and given our concerns we are downgrading our recommendations on Glencore and Anglo American from Buy to HOLD and for Vedanta from Speculative Buy to HOLD. We note that with its marketing platform, Glencore shares are potentially more defensive than its peers. Vedanta has performed well since it slumped below its 2003 IPO price on debt concerns, while Anglo American still faces numerous challenges in cost-cutting and restructuring its portfolio.
Amongst the diversified miners, we retain BUY recommendations on Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, which is now our Top Pick. BHP Billiton is normally more defensive in difficult market conditions, while we believe that oil may have bottomed, that the copper market is tightening and that the risk/reward balance in iron ore suggests to us, limited downside from current prices. Although we expect earnings to bottom in FY2016, the risk, we believe, is on the upside. For Rio Tinto, we believe that the upside potential relative to further downside risk in iron ore, is skewed in the company's favour.
In copper, we retain our BUY recommendation on Central Asia Metals (with a safe dividend and a yield of over 6%), and also our HOLD recommendations on Antofagasta and KAZ Minerals. Antofagasta should be more defensive than KAZ Minerals, which is particularly highly geared to copper price recovery."

Barclays note today on the mining sector:
"Liquidity and solvency are likely to be increasingly important differentiators as the next stage of the commodity cycle plays out. Declining commodity prices combined with multi-decade high leverage has left a growing number of companies at risk of a solvency crisis. These companies have debt maturities over the next three years exceeding available liquidity and net FCF generation on spot, leaving them in the
hands of their creditors in the absence of further management action. Meanwhile debt and increasingly equity markets are closed: we note only BHP and RIO have fiveyear bond yields below 10% currently among the traded debt of the European mining sector. As seen in the US coal industry, high liquidity can prove illusory when commodity prices fall further than expected, leading to permanent impairment of capital structure. In this note we examine which companies are vulnerable if spot prices decline further and what they can do in response.
Who could be in danger if prices continue to fall? We have created a financial and operational index to assess how likely it is that the companies come through the next three years broadly intact assuming spot commodity and currencies, plus downside scenarios. On this analysis, Ferrexpo, KAZ Minerals, Vedanta and First Quantum appear to be most at risk. If commodity prices fall from spot levels, Vale and BHPB start to look vulnerable.
But most have levers to pull: KAZ Minerals has the bulk of its debt provided by the CDB, which is likely to extend flexibility on maturities, albeit at a potential cost to shareholders. FQM is trying to sell assets and may finally defer capex on Cobre Panama. Vale could be in danger if commodities fall further, but it has asset sales underway (with risks attached) and can probably rely on state banks for additional facilities if required. Anglo has ample liquidity for now but needs to act quickly to address its challenges with options for asset sales/closures, spin-offs and an equity raise (see Time is of the essence). Under a 20% haircut to spot commodity prices, BHPB’s liquidity headroom looks increasingly thin. Only RIO looks relatively safe, a position bolstered by its dividend cut announced yesterday.
Equity recommendations: We continue to favour the less leveraged miners Rio Tinto (OW) and Rangold (OW, Top Pick). We maintain UW ratings on Anglo American, BHPB, Vale, Vedanta, KAZ Minerals and Ferrexpo: equity issuance and debt restructuring at the expense of equity holders remains a high risk for most of these names if commodity pricing doesn’t improve and/or asset sales prove elusive."

Possibly the turning point in the commodity cycle?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/glencore-ceo-commodity-markets-have-hit-bottom-2016-03-01

Macquarie note:
Equity rally running on fumes
After falling by 20% in the first three weeks of January, mining equities have been on a tear. The FTSE Mining 350 index is up by 23% YTD and up by 54% since it reached its 10-year low on 20 January. By comparison, the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is flat YTD, the copper price is up 5% and iron ore is up 33%. The mining index has therefore outpaced the relevant metals but, even so, the index is still 8% below the financial crisis nadir. Nevertheless, the rally has come too soon, too fast, in our view. The necessary remedies to weak commodity/industry fundamentals – namely, acceleration in supply cuts, aided by industry consolidation as well as a stabilisation of demand – have not yet taken effect. What concerns us most is that the mining sector rally has not been accompanied by an improvement in earnings expectations. Quite to the contrary, consensus EBITDA estimates (CY16E) have fallen by 10% YTD. The Mining Index has historically traded at a 15% discount to the FTSE All-share index. At the beginning of January, that discount had widened to 30%; a level not seen since 2011. However, over the space of six weeks, that discount narrowed to only 10% yesterday. Without a meaningful upgrade to sector earnings – unlikely in our view (spot EBITDA shows 4% downside) – we expect the equities to hit a valuation air-pocket with some miners heading lower as multiples compress and normalise.
Diversified miners: We expect the market’s fixation with high beta names to give way as fundamentals fail to catch-up with sentiment. We therefore reiterate our Outperform on Rio Tinto and Glencore (TP increased to £1.80) amongst the diversified miners as the market refocuses on valuation levels, credible debt reduction plans and tangible catalysts once the sector rally loses steam. Anglo American is our favoured short in the peer group, however, we have also downgraded BHP Billiton and South32 to Underperform on valuation grounds.
Base Metal plays: Amongst the base metals stocks, we have downgraded Antofagasta to Underperform (TP increased to £3.65) as the stock’s earnings multiple has reached a 12-year high without any attendant improvement in copper and company fundamentals. KAZ Minerals is our only remaining Outperform in the sub-sector as we have downgraded Aurubis to Neutral as the stock is within reach of our TP.
Gold & Diamonds: We continue to prefer Centamin among gold miners, though we believe profit taking in the sector is in order following the recent strong rally. We recently upgraded gemstone miners, notably Petra Diamonds and Gemfields, in light of stabilizing pricing and midstream inventory restocking."

Cititgroup view on the mining sector:
"Equity values jumping the gun — The FTSE Mining 350 Index is up 17% YTD and has been one of the best-performing sectors so far. We believe part of this can be explained by the severe underweight positions at the end of last year, an improvement in the Chinese economic outlook and the miners delivering on restructuring plans.
What it means for relative valuation — On a relative basis, sector PEs are at a 20-year high vs. the market, we see UK mining’s absolute 12-month fwd P/E at ~25x (nearly an all-time high since 2000) and we see the sector P/E relative to the FTSE 100 at ~1.5x, making it look relatively overbought compared with its 0.8x historical average. Part of the explanation is the low earnings base of the miners and arguably the miners have tracked EV/EBITDA more closely.
Commodities basket reasonably neutral — Commodities have been a mixed bag since the beginning of the year, with iron ore and Brent up 26% and 4%, respectively, while the base metals block is slightly weaker. Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has remained flat so far this year (Figure 6). So, arguably, most of the performance this year has been driven by sentiment rather by a major shift in underlying fundamentals.
Too much and too soon — Where to from here? We still think the sector is due for a pull-back, with short-term valuations becoming stretched. This is one of the reasons we downgraded the sector to neutral in our note Metals & Mining - Top Down and Bottom Up: Taking Sector Down to Neutral. We are also cautious on the short-term outlook for Industrial Metals — Too Much Too Soon (For Prices)?; we caution against chasing any further short-term commodities moves on the upside and expect the trajectory of base metals to diverge in the coming weeks as specific structural themes take precedence over prices. This is likely to moderate the equities’ performance going into next quarter, in our view."

Mining sector - Investec current point of view:
 The commodity price rally in Q1 2016 can be largely explained by the weakness in the US dollar during that period, given the strong inverse correlation that has emerged between commodity prices and the US dollar in recent months. We do not see the slight improvement in Chinese economic fundamentals as sufficient to fully justify a material improvement on our outlook for commodities. We note this view is shared by many of the major global mining companies.
 Modest upgrades to our near-term commodity forecasts are largely the result of mark-to-market adjustments following price moves in Q1, rather than changes in our longer term outlook. We do believe that equity market sentiment towards the sector has become more positive, resulting in higher valuations, despite ongoing concerns over earnings and debt. The ongoing equity rally has in many cases exceeded our value points despite valuation upgrades. We raise price targets on many companies and recommend a neutral weighting to the sector.
 The fact that Q1 2016 saw many of the milestones we had expected from our Investec Mining Clock (dividend cuts, asset impairments, credit downgrades and signs of stability in commodity prices at cyclical lows) means that we now move forward to 4 o’clock. This signals a mild positive bias toward the sector, although we caution that the industry still faces some serious challenges: primarily ongoing balance sheet concerns. Our recommendation is to buy whenever prices dip below value points. The bottom of the market appears to have been tested and found, but we do not see this as the beginning of a renewed bull market.
 The sector is effectively healing itself through ongoing asset divestments and cost and debt reductions. Debt ratios remain a material concern, even if the market has chosen to reward the most heavily geared companies in the recent rally. The fact that most such companies did not raise equity during the rally is indicative of determination not to dilute shareholders unnecessarily when liquidity is sufficient. Debt buybacks have proved an accretive strategy.
 NPV remains our sole valuation metric but we note that earnings are returning given the recent increase in commodity prices and ongoing cost cutting.
 We maintain our preference for gold exposure but remain bearish on the prospects for coal, PGMs, nickel and aluminium.

Funny assessment IMO

Haitong comment today:
"Stocks: We upgrade our ratings on BHP Billiton, Antofagasta and Glencore from Neutral to Buy and upgrade our rating on Anglo American from Sell to Neutral. We have been looking for a sell-off in the miners to become more constructive. The FTSE100 market has differentiated between UK/non-UK stocks in absolute sterling terms post the Brexit vote, although we argue this could eventually go further once a weaker sterling is taken into account for sectors such as mining which are neither sterling nor UK sectors. Our FV changes can be found in Figure 1. In addition to this, our revisions put us slightly ahead of consensus on the top line (consensus still has downside to spot/forwards), and we are notably ahead on EBITDA particularly for BHP and RIO, but we see these as stocks where productivity and cost gains are going to surprise on the upside. We remain constructive on the sector in the longer term due to contracting capex, continued structural demand growth, better capital management policies and lower costs, and see room for more generalist underweight covering."

Credit Suisse comment today:
"There seems to be now a growing consensus that in the nearer term commodities may be a decent place to park money given a US Fed that has deferred its tightening (USD no longer rising) and with China likely to do enough economic stimulus to underpin growth at reasonable levels.
That said, we do not see investors becoming commodity bulls. However, we do see investors moving money back into commodity exposures with the full knowledge that once China stimulus comes to an end, commodities will be back under pressure again. This looks to be very much a relative call with commodities, at least temporarily, being the lesser of evils among uncertain equity classes (e.g. financials and fully priced healthcare in Australia).

Goldman Sachs today:
"It is tempting to blame the sharp post-election rally in industrial metals prices on President-elect Trump’s platform of lower taxation and higher public spending on infrastructure. Instead, we would argue this rally was a continuation of a reflation trend put in place at the start of 2016 by the Chinese through credit stimulus aimed at infrastructure projects and policy driven supply curtailments in coal where they have 50% of global production. Although this was policy driven and a Trump victory increases the odds of further fiscal policy stimulus, these policy actions all act as a tailwind on a US economy in the later stages of a business cycle pushing near capacity."

Recommending overweight commodities and long enhanced GSCI. Historically, when the US and Chinese output gap closes and inflation begins to rise, this has been a buy signal for commodities. We believe the recent reacceleration in global PMIs suggests commodity markets are entering a cyclically stronger environment.

Supply restrictions from policy actions should benefit oil, coking coal and nickel in the near term while economic reductions should boost natural gas and zinc. Accordingly, we are upgrading our GSCI returns forecast to +9.0% +11.0%+6.0% on a 3, 6 and 12 month basis from -2.0%+1.7%+8.3%.

The increased likelihood of an OPEC cut motivates our near-term forecast upgrade. Stronger than expected demand growth and lower production from high-cost countries increase our confidence that the global oil market will shift into deficit by 2H17 even with OPEC production above current levels. Thus, there is now a stronger incentive for OPEC producers to halt inventory growth in 1H17 and normalize the current high level of inventories with a short-duration production cut.
We think a cut should generate backwardation – helping OPEC grow market share by sidelining higher-cost producers – and reduce oil price volatility – increasing the valuation of their debt and equity.

Higher commodity prices likely to improve financial conditions. Commodity prices are correlated with the accumulation and de-accumulation of EM excess savings. Unlike in the 1970s, more sophisticated financial markets in the 2000s were able to transform the excess savings into greater global liquidity that increased asset values, lowered interest rates and improved credit conditions that spanned the globe. Weak commodity prices in 2015 and 2016 acted as a drag on financial conditions.

A bullish dollar view is not incompatible with a bullish commodity view. We expect that the positive roll return from backwardation in commodities will offset the downward pressure from a strengthening dollar, as has historically been the case.

We upgrade our 3/6/12-month iron ore price forecasts to $65/63/55 per tonne. Steel consumption is more resilient than expected and demand for iron ore is likely to be supported further by incremental restocking across the steel supply chain. Further, the pace of supply growth has slowed as a result of delayed capital expenditure and operational challenges."

UBS comment today:
In our opinion, the commodity backdrop is favourable going into 2017 with Chinese (and US) demand likely to be robust due to the government transitions/ fiscal stimulus. We also believe the backdrop for the mining sector is positive as even without material commodity price upside, the majority of the industrial miners generate strong free cash flow (greater than 10% FCF yield) and have the potential to lift shareholder returns in 2017/18. We do however believe the risk/ reward differs materially between the commodities, with iron ore & coal prices set to fall from elevated levels as supply steps up, while copper, zinc & nickel increase as deficits emerge/ increase. As a result, we expect 2017 to be a commodity & stock-picking year.

We prefer base metal exposure over bulks, and expect stocks that are first to convert strong FCF into a meaningful lift in shareholder returns to outperform. Our top pick is Glencore driven by its strong 2017 FCF yield at spot of 19% & our belief that it re-instate a material dividend in 2017, and Norilsk Nickel due to its exposure to near-term nickel price upside & sector leading 2017 dividend yield of 9%. We prefer Rio over BHP as Rio will be in a position to step up returns in 2017 and has restructuring potential.

In the mid-caps, our top pick is KAZ Minerals as a leveraged play on copper (with growth). Antofagasta and Boliden are also well positioned from a commodity mix perspective but in our opinion their valuations are not compelling. South32 generates strong FCF at spot of 28%, has a net cash position, and is likely to step up returns in 2017; however, in our opinion, the share is likely to consolidate while coal, alumina and manganese ore prices fall over the next 3-6 months (similar to Anglo American).

The UBS commodity team lifts its 2017 copper forecast by 30% to $3.00/lb and zinc 27% to $1.40/lb; they also lift iron ore & coal prices expecting a slower retracement. This results in 2017 EBITDA upgrades for the majors of ~35% with EPS ~85%; 2018 is also lifted, while 2019 is broadly unchanged. Our 12m forward NPVs increase by ~10% due to strong near-term FCF as a result of commodity price upgrades and roll-forward.

Jefferies note on the mining sector today:
"Supply constraints in mining will intensify this year, especially in copper, and demand should be resilient in 1H17. While Chinese construction activity should slow in 2H, the ongoing recovery in global industrial activity is an offsetting positive. Copper is our preferred commodity for 2017 as we now forecast a market deficit this year. We have increased our copper price forecasts, and we reiterate our Buy ratings on Glencore, Freeport and First Quantum.
Favorable macro conditions: The mining sector should benefit from Chinese infrastructure spending, the ongoing global recovery in industrial activity and manufacturing, potential fiscal stimulus in the US, a higher oil price, and an increase in inflation expectations. Demand conditions are likely to be supportive, at least until China's National Congress meetings in 3Q/4Q17. Speculative demand for commodities is also likely to be strong if the dollar continues to strengthen as traders in China have been buying commodities as a backdoor strategy to get long the US$. Counter-intuitively, a weaker dollar could lead to lower commodity prices in the short-term as dollar weakness could spark an unwind of speculative longs. All things considered, we expect resilient demand for most commodities in 2017, but prices should be volatile along the way.
Copper supply problems: Copper mining companies slashed capex and in some cases high-graded mines during the downturn. Operating risk has increased as a result, and unexpected disruptions are likely to be a prominent factor in the copper market this year. There is also risk of strikes as labour negotiations will be difficult, including at Escondida, the world's largest copper mine. We now forecast a small (82kt) copper market deficit this year due to lower supply projections, and we have increased our copper price forecasts to fully reflect the improving fundamental outlook.
Funds are still underweight mining: Based on our recent conversations with investors, it is clear to us that many long only funds are still underweight mining. As fundamentals remain supportive and the copper price increases, we would expect these funds to capitulate and buy. Mining share prices are likely to go materially higher as a result."

Macquarie comment today:
· Commodity prices – key price forecast changes to bulks and nickel. Macquarie’s Commodities team reiterates the expectation of downside in iron ore as the Chinese apparent demand cycle turns, but given Q1 gains, we have raised full year 2017 expectations by ~16% to $63/t but still expect prices to fall back to $50/t in 2H17. In contrast, manganese and met coal prices have been lowered in the near term. In nickel, the political-driven uncertainty over Indonesian and Filipino ore shipments continues. After looking at a range of scenarios, we now feel there is some ore-driven upside from current levels, and have raised our 2017 forecast by ~12%. We have also increased our alumina price forecast by an average 15% from CY18-21 due to a combination of US alumina closures and ex-China aluminium growth.
· Diversified miners – higher earnings but mixed TP changes. Vale and RIO have experienced the most material near-term earnings upgrades given the predominance of iron ore in the earnings mix. Our CY17 and CY18 EBITDA estimates for Vale and RIO increase by 12% and 18%, respectively. Near-term cuts to metallurgical coal and manganese lead to a reduction in South32’s CY17 EBITDA of 4% but the significant increase to alumina and manganese forecasts in 2018 see CY18 EBITDA rise by 6%. For the rest of the peer group, EBITDA forecasts changes are
· We acknowledge that after an enthusiastic start to the year, macro momentum in China is slowing and end use demand is seasonally softer; leading to a build-up in supply chain inventories which could cap commodity price gains in the near term. But ex-China economic indicators remain robust and should offer, at least partial, support to prices. Against this backdrop, we retain our preference for stocks with compelling valuation metrics and strong capital return potential. Our relative preference for RIO and S32 amongst the diversified miners therefore remains unchanged. Both stocks offer FCF yields in the mid-teens on our base case, DYs greater than 6% and both companies have either committed to, or hinted at, share buy-back programmes. KAZ Minerals remains our top pick amongst the base metals as we believe that project delivery should continue to reduce the risk discount levied on the stock."

Bit of a dip in at least a couple of mining companies in mid-Feb, can someone remind me why?

I think most of them have seen a dip, but from what I can understand, the brokers have never recommended the miners as a 'safe' investment over the last year, yet their sp's have rocketed, partly it seems from the strong $, unexpected demand in China and the miners themselves reporting better profitability having become far more efficient. On CNBC yesterday they commented that miners have done well, contrary to the predictions of 'experts', so very good luck to those that took on the risk. They think the dip is down to mainly profit taking and a response to a weaker $. Copper seems to be the 'hot commodity' at the moment, so maybe that's an area still set to benefit.

Thanks Harry, I've been out of miners for ages so obviously missed all the fun, I must start to take more interest in Vedanta as they were one of my favourites.