Hello traders!

While public and media gaze will be firmly fixed on the woes of Northern Rock this
week, I suspect the City will be concentrating on the wider picture and many
investors will already be working out who, within the banking sector, is likely
to gain from NRK's demise.

Who will be there to pick up the pieces and will they actually profit....?

With the crude oil price firmly fixed around the $80 a barrel mark, and warnings
from within the industry that the price may rise to $150 sooner rather than later,
the blue chip oilies (including newboy Tullow Oil) will no doubt be active.

The Sainsbury saga still has some twists left in the plot that may squeeze the
share price, while ITV still seems to be searching for a plot and may suffer.

A week to appear calm when all around you may be in turmoil, although, if your
life savings are in Northern Rock, I guess you are allowed a modicum of nerves.

Take care out there........

G.

Friday's market reports:

Telegraph
The Times
The Times (Need to know)
FT
The Guardian
The Independent
This is Money

American investment bank Merrill Lynch became the latest potential casualty of the global credit crunch as it warned it has been forced to adjust the value of a series of securities linked to risky products.

Merrill Lynch, making the statement less than a month before it releases its financial results in October, said the volatility in products such as sub-prime mortgages, collateralised debt obligations and other structured credit products had not been helpful in the third-quarter.

Merrill Lynch downgrades values of 'risky' securities

Banks have suspended quoting prices in a key debt market used by Northern Rock and other mortgage lenders.

Banks stop quoting on covered bonds

House prices have seen their biggest monthly fall in five years as turmoil in the world's financial system unnerved both buyers and sellers, according to property website Rightmove.

Turmoil drives down prices

The growing US focus on confronting Iran in a proxy war inside Iraq risks triggering a direct conflict in the next few months, regional analysts are warning.

US-Iranian tensions have mounted significantly in the past few days, with heightened rhetoric on both sides and the US decision to establish a military base in Iraq less than five miles from the Iranian border to block the smuggling of Iranian arms to Shia militias.

Proxy war could soon turn to direct conflict, analysts warn

Senior American intelligence and defence officials believe that President George W Bush and his inner circle are taking steps to place America on the path to war with Iran, The Sunday Telegraph has learnt. In a chilling scenario of how war might come, a senior intelligence officer warned that public denunciation of Iranian meddling in Iraq - arming and training militants - would lead to cross border raids on Iranian training camps and bomb factories.

Under the theory - which is gaining credence in Washington security circles - US action would provoke a major Iranian response, perhaps in the form of moves to cut off Gulf oil supplies, providing a trigger for air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and even its armed forces.

Bush setting America up for war with Iran

Mystery surrounds last week's air foray into Syrian territory. The Observer's Foreign Affairs Editor attempts to unravel the truth behind Operation Orchard and allegations of nuclear subterfuge.

Was Israeli raid a dry run for attack on Iran?
Israelis blew apart Syrian nuclear cache

Oil barons like to think they've seen everything, but last week the dvu was positively spooky. Ten years ago, ministers of Opec, the oil price cartel, congregated in the Indonesian capital of Jakarta to discuss whether to pump more crude. With prices trading at $20 a barrel and China beginning to demand more oil, Saudi Arabia persuaded other members to boost production by 10 per cent.

Is the $100 barrel on its way?

Lord Oxburgh, the former chairman of Shell, has issued a stark warning that the price of oil could hit $150 per barrel, with oil production peaking within the next 20 years.

Oil industry 'sleepwalking into crisis'

One of the world's most senior accountants has warned Wall Street's major investment banks to stick to the rules when they report their third quarter results this week. Questions have been mounting over how the banks will handle exposures to sub-prime investments and structured credit funds that have been hammered by the global liquidity squeeze. Although the banks are obliged to price these instruments in their books at fair market value, there is currently no trade in many of these assets. Banking sources fear that if the figures are smaller than the market expects, investors will assume that the figures have been fudged - prompting a new wave of fear in global markets. If huge trading losses are exposed, the effect could be equally profound.

Banks told to play straight with books

ONE of the worlds biggest fund managers is to launch a 100m hedge fund that will buy up farmland across Britain to profit from booming food prices.

City piles into farm funds

Good morning traders!

In Asia today, the Hang Seng ended the morning down 102.96 points at 24,795.15,
with banks under pressure after the Chinese government on Friday raised interest
rates.

The Tokyo markets are closed for a public holiday.

Crude oil for October delivery fell as much as 57 cents to $78.53 a barrel, after
declining 99 cents to end at $79.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange
on Friday.

Happy trading!

G.

ALLIANCE & LEICESTER CUT TO 'SELL' VS 'HOLD' IN CITIGROUP REVIEW
REED ELSEVIER UPGRADED TO 'BUY' FROM 'HOLD' AT CITIGROUP
HIKMA PHARMACEUTICALS STARTED AS 'HOLD' WITH 640p TARGET AT CITIGROUP
BAT DOWNGRADED TO 'UNDERWEIGHT' VS 'EQUAL-WEIGHT' AT LEHMAN BROTHERS
ALLIANCE & LEICESTER CUT TO 'SELL' VS 'NEUTRAL' AT MERRILL LYNCH
HAMMERSON CUT TO 'NEUTRAL' FROM 'BUY' AT MERRILL LYNCH

BROKERWATCH Heineken, InBev price targets raised, SABMiller upgraded by ING

London shares outlook - lower, investors still reeling from Northern Rock newsLondon shares outlook - lower, investors still reeling from Northern Rock newsThomson Financial UK at a glance share guide - weekend

BROKERWATCH Reed Elsevier upped to 'buy' vs 'hold' at Citigroup; target 685p

BROKERWATCH BAT cut to 'underweight' vs 'equal-weight' by Lehman Brothers

BROKERWATCH Alliance & Leicester cut to 'sell' from 'neutral' at Merrill LynchBROKERWATCH Hammerson reiterated 'equal-weight' by Morgan Stanley amid bid talkThomson Financial UK at a glance share guide

BROKERWATCH Northern Rock cut to 'neutral' from 'buy' at Merrill Lynch

Australian shares close lower ahead of Fed meeting, Oil Search up on bid talk

UK smallcap opening - MediaZest lifted by reduced H1 losses; positive statement

BROKERWATCH Shire reiterated 'market-perform' at Bernstein; target 1,330 penceUK smallcap opening - Eicom rises on second channel launch

FTSE opens sharply lower

Australian shares close lower before Fed meet, Oil Search up on bid talk UPDATEUK smallcap opening - Playwize up on Ladbrokes deal

London shares open lower as Northern Rock news continues to hit financials

STOCKWATCH UK property stocks with office exposure downgraded by Merrill LynchUK smallcap opening - Goldplat ticks up on solid FY numbers