A Brief Look At The Week Ahead

Will we get an early Christmas present from the Bank of England this week in the form of an interest rate cut? A growing number of pundits think it possible, although the majority still favour February for the next movement. Last week's news keeps rolling on into this with Northern Rock still making headlines as their potential suitors revamp their bids. Also in the banking sector, Royal Bank of Scotland is slated to produce numbers on Thursday, with the weekend press suggesting they will accompanied by an admission that a further 2bn writedown will be required in the New Year. Rio Tinto continues to urge shareholders to reject the approaches of BHP Billiton until a more attractive offer is on the table. Last week's revival in the share price should persuade investors to hang on at least a little longer. There aren't a lot of big names scheduled to report this week, but look out for Standard Chartered and Stagecoach on Wedneday, either of which is capable of springing a surprise. Good hunting! Greystone Thanks, as always to Supermum, Kyoto and Digger for their invaluable input to The Traders Thread (Greystone is Alan English, City Editor at MoneyAM.)

For next week "UPS" Analysis selection for JRVS

JRVS price 21.875p

Hugh volume for the last couple days with about 11 times the usual

All Indicators had reached bottom oversold and now starting to move higher another couple of small rises and share price would go into UPtrend

Rumours of a bid are circulating after the sharp fall on share price the market cap of 42M plus 41M of debt is short of the valuation close to sales of 300M

Despite lower full Year expectations, company said: "It still expects to record its best full-year result since 2003"

Chart for JRVS

That is how the chart is looking at the moment.

The Indicators have bottom (oversold) since the share price collapse last week and there is signs that are turning on the way UP.

        TIME FOR FUN

Morning all. Friday's market reports:

Telegraph
The Times
The Times (Need to know)
FT
The Guardian
The Independent
This is Money

The newly floated oil giant PetroChina has lost a third of a trillion dollars in nominal value in just three weeks, plummeting to a fresh low yesterday as angst gripped the Shanghai stock market. The benchmark CSI 300 index of Chinese stocks has dropped 18pc in November, the worst one-month fall in more than a decade. The bourse has tumbled 22pc since peaking in mid-October after a wild speculative boom that saw prices triple in a year - much like the final phase of Japan's Nikkei frenzy in 1989. It now qualifies as an official "bear market"
Shanghai in free fall as oil giant plummets

Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, is close to agreeing a deal with banks and regulators to freeze interest payments that are due to rise next year for many holders of high-risk sub-prime mortgages, which altogether represent loans of $362 billion (175 billion).
Henry Paulson close to a deal with banks to stave off sub-prime rate rise threat

Royal Bank of Scotland could be forced to write off almost 2bn as a result of the US sub-prime crisis, analysts say. Antony Broadbent of Sandford Bernstein said the estimated writedown included ABN Amro's wholesale business, which RBS has acquired as part of a 70bn (50bn) consortium purchase of the Dutch bank.
Sub-prime exposure may cost RBS 2bn

The sub-prime buy-to-let mortgage market has virtually collapsed after the summers credit crunch with lenders withdrawing almost 90 per cent of deals. According to Moneyfacts, the price comparison website, more than half of buy-to-let deals for landlords with troubled credit histories have vanished in the past month, sparking fears that many may be forced to sell their investments.
Buy-to-let landlords fear they may have to sell as sub-prime mortgage deals dry up

The morale of British shoppers has fallen to its lowest level since the beginning of the Iraq war in 2003, a gloomy pre-Christmas survey of consumer confidence warned yesterday. The GfK/NOP consumer confidence barometer fell for a fifth consecutive month in November, as the effect of interest rate rises filtered through to borrowers and financial crises continued.
Consumer confidence at lowest level since 2003 as rate rises start to bite

Britain's biggest mortgage banks have demanded that the Bank of England cut interest rates as funding pressures on European money markets tightened even further. The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) warned that the frozen market for mortgage-backed securities had left lenders struggling to raise funds.
Lenders demand rate cut as credit markets deteriorate

Details of 9m people's investments worth a total of 60bn are being sent insecurely through the post, despite recent data scandals, because HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) requires these discs to be unencrypted, The Daily Telegraph can reveal.
New fraud fear over tax data sent in post

Royal Bank of Scotland will reveal a detailed breakdown of its exposures to the credit crunch this week, following pressure from its shareholders to disclose the true extent of its losses.
RBS to announce 2bn sub-prime write-off

Alliance & Leicester is likely to have to write off a further 50m against the value of its so-called 'toxic loans' in the first half of next year, on top of the 55m charge announced last week.
Toxic loans force A&L to write off another 50m

The credit crunch is hammering the US, which now faces a likely recession. Things dont look great for the UK either; here growth could plunge to 1 per cent next year. There is a near-consensus among economists, in fact, that the Anglo-Saxon world created this credit crunch and will likely bear the most pain.
The credit crunch could crush the euro

The greenback's plunge is boosting the US economy, but pushing Europe into the danger zone.
Dollar's a drag for Europe

Financial markets are braced for another tumultuous week as fresh evidence emerges that the sub-prime crisis is threatening the health of the UK economy.
Banks face more pain as crunch bites

PRESSURE is growing on the Bank of England to cut interest rates this week as gloom over the economy intensifies. Two of Britains best-known economists, Patrick Minford and Tim Congdon, say the Banks monetary policy committee (MPC) needs to slash rates to get the banking system working and head off a sharp downturn.
Rate cut urged to end the gloom

DECEMBER is not normally a month when the Bank of England sets the world alight. Only once in 10 years of independence has it changed interest rates in the run-up to Christmas.
Time for a rate cut gift from the Bank

Just how bad is the credit crisis? And how bad could it get?
The gathering storm

The credit crunch is about to become much more painful for banks and for homebuyers. City orthodoxy is that the housing market is unlikely to suffer a crash, but is heading for a gradual and possibly prolonged slowdown; the chief executive of one leading bank said privately this weekend that he expects stagnation for two to four years.
Crunch homes in on the housing market

Managers are playing down fears but oversupply, falling City rents and the credit crunch aren't helping the sector.
Is the foundation of commercial property funds crumbling?

'When we slow down, we take Europe with us. China does not want to slow down. We're going to do it for them.'
Don't look back, Uncle Sam - you might see China catching you up

The sterling interbank market has collapsed at the fastest rate in modern history, prompting pleas for immediate rate cuts from a chorus of top British economists.
Pleas for rate cut as interbank loans dive

Morgan Stanley has advised clients to step back from Britain's debt-laden and badly managed economy, warning that the FTSE 100 index of stocks may fall by 16pc over the next year as the credit crunch forces banks to curb lending.
Credit crunch alert over UK economy

The pension plans of the UK's 100 largest companies are some of the unexpected beneficiaries of the downturn in credit markets. A report by employment consultants Aon Consulting said the companies' plans have begun recording surpluses less than a year after their combined deficit stood at more than 30bn.
Credit crunch helps pension funds

The good news that America has kept growing rapidly despite the collapse of housing is tempered by some very bad news.
Sub-prime debacle is not the big story

Foreign exchange markets are on alert this week for the embattled dollar to face a further, severe sell-off after key talks between the Middle Easts Gulf states that could lead to them scrapping their currencies pegs to the greenback.
Dollar faces new sell-off if Gulf states end greenback pegs

Oil prices could finally breach the $100 barrier this week, deepening fears for the Wests economic prospects, if the Opec oil cartel confirms an expected decision at its extraordinary meeting in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday not to raise crude production, analysts believe.
Opec decision likely to push oil prices above $100 this week

NIKKEI	AUSTRALIA	SHANGHAI	HANG SENG

Good morning traders!

In Asia today, the Hang Seng ended the morning up 264.16 points at 28,907.77,
while the Nikkei closed down 51.70 at 15,628.97.

New York's main oil contract, light sweet crude for January delivery, was 84 cents
higher at $89.55 a barrel from $88.71 in late US trades Friday.

Happy trading!

G.

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