mitzy
- 15 Sep 2008 11:16
Today they have fallen 22% to a new low of 223p ..are they another Marconi..?
The chart looks like one long suicide note.
hangon
- 15 Sep 2008 23:03
- 2 of 569
This isn't like Marconi, IMHO,
1) Marconi made products that were not wanted - they bought bad companies, using the money that had been made many years earlier.
2) HBOS hasn't lent to sub-prime, although in UK there is a fine borderline between upper-sub-prime (my words), and good mortgages ( which are those with good incomes and decent deposits. (I suspect there are few of these, as most folks want to buy the "better home" and will stretch their payments as far as the Bank will allow.
3) HBOS isn't involved in US Mortgages - maybe 1% but as far as I'm aware it is UK-housing,
4) The Lehman Bros Bank is "probably" the beginning of the end, ( Or End of the Beginning?) - if US banking is sorted out, then the future must be better. For the past year we've been denying there is a real issue in America - these recent falls are due top the final realisation that these odd schemes are worthless. Banks have acted irresponsibly and it is possible there will be other failures . ... but why HBOS? I suspect HBOS is being targeted by shorters simply because it is the only UK-institution that is "quoted" and whose business is entirely Morgages ( or private-loans, perhaps).....and some folks are likely to default in the short-term.
Fixes?
5) Banks and finance-houses need to be far more honest . . . . not far removed are the way UK-Companies report their annual results. It was this sloppyness that allowed NRK to slap themselves on the back with their "Good works" whilst reporting "risk" in not much more than a sentence, rubishing exposure to currency. NRK failed before the ink had dried properly.
mitzy
- 16 Sep 2008 10:08
- 3 of 569
Thanks for that hangon..
ot what are your thoughts on MMG..?
hangon
- 16 Sep 2008 10:41
- 4 of 569
Today, HBOS Down a big 15% (arrgh!) - c.2 = their low.(Edit, fell further!)
[MMG] -FWIW, I can't see them being worth very much at all..... Not long ago their magic was supposed to cure more than patent medicine; but their Trials are hardly started and cash is zero. New Management appears to have a strong grip.....But in these times who will risk new money there, when you can buy BARC/LLOY and get a 12% return, almost g'teed?
I suspect DfE is their only route, unless a white knight passes-by....
+If you fancy risk, there's always M&S.
On the other hand - - - - what's your "take" . . . ?
mitzy
- 16 Sep 2008 12:09
- 5 of 569
I would buy MMG at about 3p or maybe 4p J W Finn said the sp should be 30/40p not long ago and once they sell the Hiv technolgy thy will be able to concentrate on the Dna vaccine drugs.
cheers
dealerdear
- 16 Sep 2008 12:14
- 6 of 569
tried to buy long around 160p level for a quick kill but can get no quote whatsoever so now I've missed the chance.
mitzy
- 16 Sep 2008 12:30
- 7 of 569
Wait till the end of the week when they will be 100p ..
skinny
- 16 Sep 2008 12:32
- 8 of 569
You can buy at 158 as I post!
dealerdear
- 16 Sep 2008 12:37
- 9 of 569
aware. Same problem. could be making money here so p****d of!
Clubman3509
- 16 Sep 2008 12:50
- 10 of 569
Short sellers will reverse positions later (I hope)
dealerdear
- 16 Sep 2008 12:52
- 11 of 569
I only want it for 10mins!
Had an opportunity at 163p but turned it down because the sp is so volatile I haven't got confidence I can sell it at 170p+
I've gone elsewhere.
spitfire43
- 16 Sep 2008 13:19
- 12 of 569
With HBOS down nearly 30% I would have thought they would have issued a statement, hopefully saying that they know of no reason within HBOS for this decline.
I have no position with HBOS, happy to be sidelined at this time, but if they can they must try and stabalise the situation before any confidence left disappears totally.
hangon
- 16 Sep 2008 13:41
- 13 of 569
Now, Looks BAD to me - there is "...no smoke (etc).." - - - I undrstand HBOS relies on the interbank lending, rather than their Depositors - hence the fear that Loans will be hard to come by....leading to poor returns.
Expect further falls until punters think they will buy some.
I'd be happy at 1, considering they are 1.59 right now......just about the worst major-stock faller I've experienced.......(Is this likely to become another NRK? . . . . fortunately there are no high-street queues......yet!)
Ooo-er.
stroreysj
- 16 Sep 2008 13:47
- 14 of 569
I hope not because they hold my bank account. I have a limit order of 5000 shares at 150. After that sit, wait and hope. I still hold barratts at 656 so im no judge. where is cynic when we need him
spitfire43
- 16 Sep 2008 13:53
- 15 of 569
storey - your limit order might have just been filled, I was watching live feed at 153p then it has just gapped down to 147p.
some trading platforms have been struggling today to fill orders with HBOS today.
nordcaperen
- 16 Sep 2008 14:01
- 16 of 569
Can see Barclays following suit - there even more exposed than HBOS, and were in bed with Lehman , to the tune of god knows what yet. Making Bradford and Bingley look good between them.
dealerdear
- 16 Sep 2008 14:15
- 17 of 569
UK may let one bank go but to lead 3/4 to destruction would bring the government and the whole of the financial structure down.
mitzy
- 16 Sep 2008 14:39
- 18 of 569
Dont worry they will be 100p soon if not 50p..imho.
nordcaperen
- 16 Sep 2008 15:11
- 19 of 569
I'd be closing them short s mitzy - HBOS make an announcement and they'll fly back up - I've took the gamble at 1.42, total portfolio now resting on these, 850 Million profit last interims, drop is well over done - be 2.00 not 1.00 sooner than you think. (hopefully) But you win some you lose some !!
nordcaperen
- 16 Sep 2008 15:13
- 20 of 569
Ticked up 14 points while writing that last post - think I might close position if it gets to 180/190 though !
stroreysj
- 16 Sep 2008 15:21
- 21 of 569
spitfire they filled at 1.46 ..trying to get out at 1.81 which its just gone through but not proving easy