Supermum is moving house this weekend......

The Weekly Chart View will return next week.

As ever, thanks for the threads, Alan.

Morning all. Friday's market reports:

The Times
The Times (Need to know)
FT
The Guardian
The Independent
This is Money

Saturday

Economists today cast doubt on official data showing that British gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.4 per cent between July and September, claiming the surprise fall is far worse than economic reality.
Economists revolt over surprise recession data

Sterling could be heading towards parity with the euro, currency analysts said last night after the pound was hammered on foreign exchanges after the shock GDP figures.
Pound could hit parity with euro after GDP figures shock

Ireland's financial regulator has fined Merrill Lynch 2.75m (2.5m) for two cases of traders inappropriately valuing their positions.
Merrill Lynch fined 2.5m over wrong valuations

It seems Dick Bove has landed himself in a bit of trouble. Having appeared on CNBC immediately after Wells Fargos third-quarter results on Wednesday, saying the bank was a standout among financial institutions, he promptly downgraded the company to sell nine hours later. The turnaround, in addition to being cited as a reason for the whiplash in Wells shares (and oddly enough the wider market) on Thursday, has prompted a flood of criticism.
The perils of instant analysis

Sunday

Time and again in this recession, the ONS has come up with gloomier gross domestic product numbers than anybody expected. The official statisticians have proved, at the very least, they are no propaganda machine. Other than that, we should treat these early estimates with a huge pinch of salt because they are so out of line with survey evidence.
Deficit may undershoot despite GDP setback

Conventional oil powers modern economies and provides around a third of the world's energy. But many commentators forecast a near-term peak soon and subsequent decline in global production as the resource is depleted. Some expect this to lead to major economic disruption, with "non-conventional" sources being unable to fill the gap in the timescale required.
The rise and fall of oil production

Amid centenary celebrations at BP, the oil giant is squaring up to rivals to secure the fossil fuel resources necessary to underpin future prosperity.
Let the battle begin over black gold

Monday

The American economy seems set officially to emerge from recession this week. Having contracted each quarter since last summer, making it the longest downturn in post-war US history, economists expect a fairly robust expansion to be recorded in the three months to the end of September.
Britain lags in growth race as US emerges from slump

Business confidence has recovered to its highest level in more than 18 months and one in five senior business executives consider British economic prospects for coming year as "good" or "very good".
Confidence reaches an 18-month high

So far, two central banks have embarked on the route to monetary policy normalisation: the Bank of Israel raised rates from 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent at the end of August, followed this month by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which upped its official rate from 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent ? the first G20 central bank to do so.
How long before a G7 central bank raises rates?

China may face an economic slowdown next year, Stephen Roach, the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, has warned. A massive government stimulus package and more than $1 trillion (?613bn) of new bank lending helped the Chinese economy jump 8.9pc in the third quarter. However, Mr Roach warned that China still faces "tough challenges in the years ahead".
China faces 'economic slowdown' in 2010

Lloyds Banking Group is in preliminary talks to give away swaths of its land assets built up during HBOS's disastrous investment and lending strategy. Lloyds is tentatively discussing handing over major HBOS land holdings to a select group of Britain's leading housebuilders. The plan would see thousands of new homes built in a series of profit-sharing joint ventures, with Lloyds recouping cash once the houses have been sold.
Lloyds in talks to hand HBOS land assets to housebuilders

The world's largest listed mining and metals companies are burdened with a "wall of debt" that could lead to higher commodity prices according to new research from Ernst & Young.
Miners' debt problems threaten higher prices

IT claims to be the biggest owner of mining assets in the world with gold, iron ore and coal reserves of almost $2 trillion (1.22 trillion) - but hardly anyone seems to have heard of it.
SCH - the biggest company you've never heard of

NIKKEI 225	AUSTRALIA ASX200	SHANGHAI	HANG SENG

KOSPI	VIX	GOLD	NYMEX CRUDE

SENSEX

Hong Kong is closed today.

AAL HSBC: initiated overweight, tp 2900
ARM Panmure: downgraded to sell from hold, tp raised to 135 from 115
BAY Deutsche: downgraded to sell
BLT HSBC: initiated neutral, tp 2000
CSRT Singer: initiated buy, tp 510
PVCS Panmure: initiated sell, tp 60
RIO HSBC: initiated neutral, tp 3300
SMDR Jeffries: initiated buy, tp 300
SOLA Panmure: initiated buy, tp 235
STAN Morgan Stanley: upgraded to equalweight from underweight, tp raised to 1500 from 900
VEC Singer: initiated buy, tp 143
XCH Panmure: upgraded to hold from sell, tp raised to 200 from 175
XTA HSBC: initiated underweight, tp 900

Twitter Updates
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also posted on CBRY thread but i am canvassing for the opinions of a wider audience.
is there a real probability of these plummeting back to 6-ish a share if KRAFT don't make a formal offer by 03 Nov 09? i know there is usually a fall back if they have increased on speculation of an offer.
Does anyone think that KRAFT will make an increased offer? my crystal ball is fuzzy!!
Alex

Yes, although I don't think it's likely to go back to the old trading range due to the recent trading statement and the possibility of bidders returning in future. Something starting with a '6' would be my guess, depending on the nature of the exit statement.

I always weigh up the risk-reward ration in these circumstances. What's the bid price? What's the current price? What's the upside profit in the case of a successful bid or raised offer? What's the downside loss if a deal doesn't happen? What's my estimated percentage likelihood of a bid versus the upside and downside percentages?

Reuters carried an unattributed story last week from a 'top ten' investor in CBRY pushing for a 820 bid, and I've read that the consensus is that Nestle won't become involved. This may be the amount of potential upside.

I haven't followed the story very closely, but if there's nothing weighing the balance of probabilities in one direction or the other, then it's a simple 50-50 gamble, and that makes the upside versus downside calculation very easy to see.