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Traders Thread - Thursday 14th January (TRAD)     

IanT(MoneyAM) - 13 Jan 2010 19:48

Kyoto - 14 Jan 2010 01:14 - 2 of 18

Morning all. Market reports:

Telegraph
The Times
The Times (Need to know)
FT
The Guardian
The Independent
This is Money

Fears that the sub-prime crisis will continue to haunt banks this year increased yesterday as Societe Generale surprised investors with a fourth-quarter profit warning.
SocGen warning sparks fears of US sub-prime fallout

The worst British recession in almost 90 years came to end in the final three months of 2009 with economic growth of 0.3pc, a think tank has estimated.
UK 'depression' ended in 2009, says economic think tank NIESR

The Federal Statistical Office said that the economy had contracted by 5 per cent during 2009, among the sharpest declines suffered by a leading industrial nation. The contraction was better than had been widely predicted at the end of 2008, but was worse than subsequent forecasts.
Germany still fragile after worst slump since the War

Greece and Portugal are likely to suffer a "slow death", as higher debt costs cause the economy to "bleed" economic potential, Moody's credit ratings agency has warned.
Greece and Portugal face 'slow death' over debt crisis

The US Securities and Exchange Commission moved to crack down on high-frequency traders who have unfiltered or naked access to stock markets as it revealed other actions to plug regulatory gaps and strengthen enforcement.
SEC cracks down on high-frequency traders

Kyoto - 14 Jan 2010 01:17 - 3 of 18

NIKKEI 225AUSTRALIA ASX200HANG SENGSHANGHAI COMPOSITE
t?s=%5EN225t?s=%5EAXJOt?s=%5EHSIish000001.gif?1187511702562
KOSPISENSEX  
t?s=%5EKS11t?s=%5EBSESN  
NYMEX CRUDEGOLDVIX 
t?s=CLG10.NYMgold_1d_o_USD.pngquote.chart?SYMBOL_US=VIX.X&WIDTH=192&HE 

Kyoto - 14 Jan 2010 07:55 - 4 of 18

AML Morgan Stanley: reiterated overweight, tp cut to 482 from 503
AV. Morgan Stanley: reiterated overweight, tp cut to 581 from 593
BLND Nomura: tp raised to 477 from 399
BOY HSBC: downgraded to underweight from neutral, tp 160
BRE Morgan Stanley: reiterated underweight, tp cut to 228 from 239
BVIC JPMorgan: upgraded to overweight from neutral, tp 450
CGL Morgan Stanley: underweight, tp cut to 404 from 414
CHTR HSBC: downgraded to underweight from neutral, tp 600
DLN Nomura: tp raised to 1296 from 1017
GPOR Nomura: tp raised to 297 from 255
HAS Morgan Stanley: upgraded to overweight from equalweight
HMSO Nomura: tp raised to 427 from 362
HSX Morgan Stanley: equalweight, tp raised to 404 from 394
LAND Nomura: tp raised to 709 from 633
LII Nomura: tp raised to 496 from 382
MGCR HSBC: upgraded to overweight from neutral, tp 200
MPI Credit Suisse: reiterated neutral, tp raised to 425 from 408
OML Morgan Stanley: equalweight, tp raised to 145 from 138
PRU Morgan Stanley: reiterated underweight, tp raised to 648 from 645
SGRO Nomura: tp raised to 379 from 325
SHB Nomura: tp raised to 444 from 303
SL. Morgan Stanley: reiterated equalweight, tp raised to 263 from 260
WEIR HSBC: upgraded to neutral from underweight, tp 80
XTA Investec: initiated buy, tp 1550

Kyoto - 14 Jan 2010 07:56 - 5 of 18

Twitter Updates
more >>

Time Traveller - 14 Jan 2010 08:49 - 6 of 18

Morning folks.
Can't get into the Traders Group as they've done something to my account.

kimoldfield - 14 Jan 2010 09:10 - 7 of 18

Anything you need to know from there TT?

Sonofagun - 14 Jan 2010 09:16 - 8 of 18

Try paying your subs! (I can't either)

Time Traveller - 14 Jan 2010 09:32 - 9 of 18

Just found an email from Ian saying that due to internal issues they haven't taken any subs off me since 2004. If I upgrade my account I can get back in. Not sure I'll bother right now as there isn't a great deal happening on the Traders thread (no offense to anyone intended!) It seems a long time ago when we actually had tips and ideas being bandied around the posters. Probably goes back to the days of dear old Croc. That was the real heyday of the Thread.
Kim, the key stuff I look at is on this thread - the economic data etc, but thanks for the offer.
Cheers,
TT

kimoldfield - 14 Jan 2010 09:38 - 10 of 18

No subs since 2004!!! :oD

You would expect that from a Government department but not MAM! ;o)

Kyoto - 14 Jan 2010 10:29 - 11 of 18

TT - I think the difference is that back then, most people were trading equity derivatives. These days, people have either gone off to do something else or disappeared completely. I'm still trading mainly trading equity derivatives - but given that hardly anyone - if indeed anyone else at all who posts publicly - seems to be doing this there doesn't seem much incentive to say anything on the subject. I also don't need the sarcasm that's crossed my radar a couple of times.

Anway, it takes two to make a market and it takes at least two to have a conversation - so if there's any interest I'll awake from my slumber and post more here, but if I think I'm talking to myself, I'll most likely shut up again :-)

Time Traveller - 14 Jan 2010 10:51 - 12 of 18

Kyoto, I agree with your sentiments entirely. Thinking back to the cat calling and abuse that happened sometimes in the past is not where anyone wants to end up.
No, I was thinking about the general posts that Traders made when they saw a particular stock moving dramatically up or down and just brought the movement to other investors attention. At that time there were posters who specialised in some sectors and their insight was useful and often profitable. None of us can watch the whole market and my watch list is now down to about 14 stocks.
It's the same with economic data and excerpts from the media where they give information for consideration.
So really, I was looking for an information exchange. We still have that with pivots and levels etc but not a great deal more or at least not as often as it used to be.
Maybe my views are a bit jaundiced by the recession that we are about to recover from! Time will tell.
TT

Sonofagun - 14 Jan 2010 11:10 - 13 of 18

Bugger...... Looks like I won't be able to wind up Dil anymore on the Rugby thread

Anyway, all the fun posters seem to have disappeared...even Ruth & Choco

Kyoto - 14 Jan 2010 11:43 - 14 of 18

Food for thought. Right now I'm looking at HMV trading at -13% below it's 25-day moving average, HOME 8%, SPD 6%. On the flipside BDEV+13%, FXPO+14, RBS+11, AQP+10. Most of my trading isn't intraday now and not so interested getting too heroic shorting into a early-stage secular bull market. Getting particularly interested in HMV - now yielding 8.6% - believe there was 15% out on loan the other day - no catalyst for a bear squeeze but once the technical indicators flatten out might be due a recovery. I have Goldman, Nomura and Deutsche on buy ratings and will be interesting to see whether they retain or downgrade. SPD continues to be volatile intraday and is worth watching... possibly right now ;-)

Time Traveller - 14 Jan 2010 13:59 - 15 of 18

2 Way gave some guidance at 13.39 saying buy the FTSE at current levels.
FTSE has now fallen 30 points since their guidance was issued!
US figures not fantastic and I would think we might have a bit of a pullback from here.

skinny - 14 Jan 2010 14:18 - 16 of 18

TT - I went short on the figures and have closed +20 - 2 way still got it :-)

Time Traveller - 14 Jan 2010 14:58 - 17 of 18

Skinny, I was wondering if you would be a contrarian player ..... LOL

skinny - 14 Jan 2010 16:02 - 18 of 18

TT - just taken another +16 short - so still not backing 2 way yet :-)
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