shareopttrader
- 13 Apr 2011 15:23
SSE has been a core part of my share portfolio.
It currently yields over 5% and on yield consideration would justify an sp of 1400 or higher.
However, it has had a good run lately and the graph and technicals indiate that a retracement can be expected shortly .
mnamreh
- 13 Apr 2011 16:15
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shareopttrader
- 14 Apr 2011 08:39
- 3 of 15
I have no crystal ball to predict the nadir but can visualise various scenarios.
The share price could move substantially by company-specific news or by macro-economic news.
On yield considerations it is still worth buying at the present price but I am waiting for a fall-back before adding to my already substantial holding (holding 26K shares).
There is a possibility of take-over approach which could drive the sp to 1500 if it happened.
Macro: BOE interest rate rise and withdrawal of QE could knock shares in general.
While holding shares I am also playing this via options. In the last few days I sold June 1250 strike put options for a small premium gain of 11 per share. That is a long position which means that I have confidence that it will not drop below 1250 before June option expiry or is worth buying at 1250 in June and collecting the juicy dividend(ex divi in august).
shareopttrader
- 14 Apr 2011 12:39
- 4 of 15
My expectation of retracement seems to be met by todays price fall but there may be further short-term weakness after the sharp run-up.
Hence I held back excepting my sale of
2 lots of jun 1250 put options @ 15 which corresponds to a net buying-in price of 1235 when including the option premium . I will probably add to that if the sp falls below 1300 in coming days . The graph and technicals still indicate scope for further retracement and tests of support levels .
mnamreh
- 14 Apr 2011 12:57
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shareopttrader
- 14 Apr 2011 13:12
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MNAMREH: I am expecting further price weakness but not as heavy as to take it back to 1200 . My focus is on the price level in mid-june at june option expiry.
Most of my shares were bought @ around 1100 and have seen good gains. I don't expect to be able to buy any more at those price levels .
Buying via options @ 1250 in june and collecting the divi soon thereafter seems the next best thing. It requires patience to make the right move at the right time .
mnamreh
- 14 Apr 2011 14:26
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shareopttrader
- 15 Apr 2011 00:16
- 8 of 15
Mn: Indeed. Anybody hoping for a quick or big capital gain from SSE will have been disapointed in recent years .
However, I value this company for its defensive qualities, producing a steady income which I manage to enhance by associated option trades with total return above 10%.
Capital gains if and when they are achieved are an additional bonus
mnamreh
- 18 Apr 2011 08:54
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shareopttrader
- 18 Apr 2011 10:26
- 10 of 15
Mn: I don't give much credence to analysts and their forecasts.
I don't expect SSE to drop as low as 1225 before mid-June. If it did , I may feel tempted to top up. I think the sp may firm as the ex-divi date and next juicy divi approach . The latest share price moves indicate that it does not give up ground easily.
mnamreh
- 18 Apr 2011 10:33
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shareopttrader
- 18 Apr 2011 10:33
- 12 of 15
I had another close look at the graph and technical indicators.
It appears the steep rise since mid-march has come to an end short-term and as I said in my header it looks as though we are in for a retracement.
shareopttrader
- 30 Apr 2011 12:45
- 13 of 15
No re-tracement as yet in sight but the steep rise has to come to an end some time.
I suppose the prospect of the juicy divi will keep a strong support in place . I don't expect it to drop back below 1250 before August .
mnamreh
- 09 Aug 2011 09:02
- 14 of 15
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shareopttrader
- 09 Oct 2013 10:40
- 15 of 15
Even after the steep recent price falls (following Red Ed's intervention)
the 2011 price levels mentioned above on this thread look attractive.
Long-term investors have had a good run with SSE when taking the good dividend into account.
At what price will SSE stabilise short-term ?
I hope above 1400 since I have share and option exposure to SSE .