Chart turning up here,,,,,,,,IMO


We initiate coverage of Manroy with a Buy recommendation and fair value of 60p offering 46% upside to the current share price of 41p. This recommendation is based on the recovery in profits expected in the current year to 30 September 2013 and a share price which is reflecting the historic issues that adversely impacted the FY 2011/12 outcome and nothing for the much improved performance that we anticipate being delivered against the group’s record order book. Manroy recently announced losses for the year to 30 September 2012, primarily as a result of delays in the novation of US contracts by the Department of Defense (DoD), a delay in the receipt of First Article Acceptance (FAA) from the DoD and a delay in the confirmation of a particular export order for Heavy Machine Guns from a major customer. In addition, the relocation of Manroy USA (MUSA) from two existing facilities into new premises in North Carolina also negatively affected results from this 49% owned associate. These delays and one-off costs will serve to enhance prospects for the current year as the group expects the export order referred to above, and others, to be confirmed. Novation was received in April 2012 and the FAA process is progressing well, albeit having taken much longer than expected. Meanwhile, a record order book of £9m in the UK and $13.2m (£8m) from MUSA, together with a very encouraging pipeline of contact opportunities augurs well for further revenue generation. Concerted efforts by management to increase export business and widen the group’s product base have met with success and now places the group in arguably its best position since float to deliver improved returns this year. Our forecasts for FY 2012/13 call for a near doubling of revenue to £14m, an adjusted PBT of £1.86m and EPS of 7.7p, rising to £17m, £3.18m and 13.6p respectively for FY 2013/14. The resulting PER of 5.3x falling to 3.0x compares to a sector average of 10.9x and 11.0x respectively and illustrates the significant discount that Manroy trades on against the sector average. Assuming our forecasts are met we anticipate the group returning to the dividend list and prudently look for a dividend of 1p, rising to 2p next year. We consider the current depressed share price as offering an attractive entry point for investors and reaffirm our Buy recommendation. (IJ)