Goldman’s Kostin: Stocks are starting to look overvalued
Equity investors take heed: One prominent strategist thinks the S&P 500 index’s valuation is “lofty by almost any measure”.
David Kostin of Goldman Sachs writes that the current price-to-earnings multiple on the S&P 500 SPX -1.26% is about as high as it can get under these current conditions, both as measured by the aggregate index (15.9 times) and the median stock (16.8 times).
After a surge higher in stocks in 2013, Kostin doesn’t see the ratio widening to 17 or 18 times, as “many investors expect”. Rather, a continued rally in stocks will hinge on profit growth.
In a somewhat ironic twist, the sellside is now advising the buyside to temper its optimism, rather than the other way around. Kostin notes that some buysiders have year-end 2014 targets on the S&P that range between 2000 and 2200, which is above his projection, and, we’d add, that of many others on the Street.
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