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Dixons carphone Fundamentals

Market report: Dixons Carphone dips on debut

Completion of all-share merger

Standard Life < 6 %

Prudential < 5%

Aviva < 3%

Kames Capital < 3%

Deutsche Bank Buy 0.00 340.00 - 400.00 Initiates/Starts

A good move up today.

There is talk of Vodafone ditching Phones4U in Feb 2015 (O2 having already done so) and that is boosting the other package sellers of mobile phones.

Harry - Dixons Carphone Confirms Long Term Deal With Vodafone

Investec Buy 367.95 368.40 395.00 395.00 Reiterates

Confirmation of Promotion to the FTSE100

Q1 2014-15 Trading Statement

Group

· Merger of Dixons Retail and Carphone Warehouse completed on 7 August 2014
· Integration progressing well with stores-in-store performing ahead of plan
· Dixons Carphone plc to join the FTSE 100 on 22 September

Dixons Retail

· Strong performance in the UK and Ireland with like-for-like sales up 4%
· The Nordics delivered a solid performance, against tougher comparatives, with like-for-like sales up 1%
· Encouraging performance from Greece with like-for-like sales up 6%

Carphone Warehouse

· CPW like-for-like sales down, as anticipated, by 6% due to a particularly strong performance in the prior year (+13% like-for-like) and difficult market conditions in Spain
· Further postpay market share gains in the UK, improved postpay mix and higher ARPU
· Completion of sale of Virgin Mobile France expected prior to interim results

Exane BNP Paribas Outperform 362.50 369.00 375.00 450.00 Retains

Deutsche comment on P4U going into administration:
"This has played-out more quickly than we had expected, given that P4U had supply contracts running until February 15 with Vodafone and September 15 with EE. We believe Dixons Carphone will continue to be an important distribution channel for the mobile network operators, and it is well placed to capture Phones 4 U’s market share. This could boost outer-year profits by 10% or more.
EE has previously indicated it wants fewer, deeper relationships with third party distributors. We do not expect any change to EE and Dixons Carphone’s relationship. They already have a supply contract agreement in place, and we believe that Dixons Carphone’s c1100 points of sale (once Store Within a Store has been rolled out) represents a valuable channel to the MNOs. Earlier this year DC signed a new long term distribution agreement with Vodafone.
At this stage it is unclear whether an administrator would attempt to operate Phone 4 U's 720 stores through the profitable Christmas period. This is likely to hinge on whether it can maintain supply in the short term from the MNOs. P4U generated LTM gross profit of £330m (including 1.578m contract connections), and Carphone's market share is around 20%, so taking its natural market share could add c£65m gross profit. Even with some higher operating costs, this could add 10-15% to Mar-16 group profits. Given the close overlap in retail proposition of Carphone and P4U, it could take an over-proportional share of the business. P4U operates concessions within 160 Dixons (Curry's/PCWorld) stores, which generates around £8m/2% of Dixons Carphone's profits. Today’s news could lead to more rapid Store Within a Store conversions. It could also enable DC to deepen its relationship with Samsung, which had franchise agreements with both companies.
Our 400p TP is based on DCF (WACC 9.1%, RFR 4.5%, ERP 4.5%,TG 1.5%), while a bull case with higher synergies achieved is 440p. This bull case, as we set out in our initiation report (An electric combination, 19 August), allows for some profit growth at Carphone Warehouse UK due to higher 4G profitability, but does not include anything for changing competitive landscape. The stock trades on CY15 (ie largely pre-synergies) P/E of 15.2x versus the UK Retail Sector on 14.0x."

Dixons Carphone set to save 800 Phones 4U jobs

Dixons Carphone Strategy Update

The Company will host a strategy update for analysts and investors in Oxford, commencing at 10.00 am (UK time) today. Management will present the strategy for the Group, followed by a store tour including a new Carphone Warehouse store-within-a-store. A live webcast and a copy of the presentation will be available on the Company's corporate website, www.dixonscarphonegroup.com. No update on current trading will be provided during the presentation.


Next announcement

The Company will publish its Q2 trading and interim results on 17 December 2014.

Canaccord Genuity Buy 421.05 419.80 - 500.00 Initiates/Starts

26 Nov 2014 Dixons Carphone DC. Canaccord Genuity Buy 421.05 419.80 - 500.00 Initiates/Starts

GF - see post 16! :-)

27 Nov 2014 Dixons Carphone DC. Citigroup Buy 0.00 418.50 480.00 480.00 Reiterates

28 Nov 2014 Dixons Carphone DC. Deutsche Bank Buy 423.00 423.00 400.00 465.00 Reiterates

SP Target 465p

Zac Mir says this morning that Tiger Global my still be short of these