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FTSE / DOW YTD

Morning!

In the US last night, the Dow finished down 77.80 at 18,517.23 the Nasdaq down 16.03 at 5,073.90 and the S&P 500 down 7.85 at 2,165.17.

In Asia, the Nikkei was recently down 199.07 points at 16,611.10 - the Hang Seng down 95.25 at 21,905.24.

WTI crude oil traded at $44.75 a barrel and Brent at $46.20.

Gold settled at $1,330.50 an ounce.

Trade well and prosper!

The Papers

Quiz of the week's news

3/7.

Good morning!

4/7 including 1 guess! :O)

Morning, ditto 4/7

Opening Market Summary

GBP Manufacturing PMI 49.1 47.8 52.1

GBP Services PMI 47.4 48.9 52.3

Guardian Stock Brokers

INDICES
FTSE 100

The past week has been a story of repeated attempts to push above 6700, with each one defeated. We have seen some downside weakness this morning, and as a result, we could see a move back to 6600, and then down to 6500, should the selling gather pace. As throughout this week, the bulls require a close above 6700 to open the way to the next big level, around 6820.


DAX

Multiple pushes to 10,200 have not resulted in fresh upside momentum, although so far the sellers have not been able to keep downward momentum going. The price essentially finds itself trapped between 10,000 and 10,200, so this is the range to watch today. A break above the latter would head towards 10,400 and the longer-term downtrend line, while a move below 10,000 points to a test of 9800 and then 9440.


S&P 500

It is always dangerous to try and call a top after all-time highs. However, we have seen a loss of upward momentum over the past two days. As a result, we may see a move to 2150, with a close below here targeting 2120. A break above 2177 would signal that the rally is still ongoing, and 2160 should be closely watched, given that it saw buyers enter earlier in the week.


FX
EURUSD

EURUSD saw a temporary rally into the 76.4% retracement, selling off down to the week’s low 1.0981 almost instantaneously. An overnight rally looks likely to lead us into another move lower, in a continuation of the trend over the past week. That being said, there is a possibility for a retracement of the recent selloff from 1.1165 and as such, a break above yesterday’s high of 1.1060 would look towards 1.1121 to then sell off once more. Nevertheless, unless that happens we expect further downside to come, with support at 1.0981 and 1.0912.


GBPUSD

GBPUSD has been gaining over the past two trading days, with yesterday’s deep retracement seeing another rally overnight. However, crucially we would need to see price break through yesterday’s high of 1.3275 to continue the trend. A failure to do so, followed by a break below 1.3155 would point towards a deterioration towards 1.3121 and 1.3064. Given that we have not broken through 1.3315, there is a good chance that this recent rally is simply a retracement of the selloff earlier in the week, with price having now reached the 76.4%. With that in mind, it seems likely that this rally will come to an end and turn lower once more soon. A closed hourly candle above 1.3315 would negate this bearish view.


USDJPY

USDJPY sold off heavily yesterday’s as comments from Kuroda led to a less dovish outlook for next week’s meeting. Price action is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, from which we will await the breakout from to provide a directional bias. With that in mind, an hourly close below 105.55 would provide a bearish short term view, with 105.26 and 104.63 the next key support levels. Alternately, an hourly close above 106.26 would point towards a move higher, with 106.43 and 107.00 the next resistance levels to watch.


COMMODITIES
Gold

The price managed to find support above the crucial $1300 area yesterday, so further momentum might see a push on through $1335, key resistance on 19/20 July. A move above here would head towards the $1375 peak from earlier in the month. Weakness could see a test of support at $1310, $1300, and then on to $1280.


Brent

The sequence of lower highs goes on here, but for now the downside is being limited by the crucial $46 support area. If this continues to hold we could see a bounce back to the $47.50 area and then $48. If $46 is broken we could see a drop down to the early May lows at $44. Given the ongoing downtrend off the June highs, the price could move back as far as $49 and still be in a broader move lower.


WTI

The move lower from WTI’s June highs goes on, and so as a result the coming week could see further selling. So far the July lows at $44.50 continue to hold, but a move below here would head towards key support at $42.60, and such a move would also create a new lower low, maintaining the downtrend. As with Brent, the price could see a significant bounce but still be in the downtrend; in this case $47.50 would be where the downward sloping resistance comes into play.


Disclaimer

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2/7 :(
I know nothing !!

You need a bit of time off to read the papers Jimmy; paper in one hand, pint in the other, what's not to like?! :o)

2/7 :( a busy week (is my excuse!)

As good an excuse as any! :o)