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FTSE / DOW YTD

Morning!

In the US last night, the Dow finished up 3.76 at 18,533.05 the Nasdaq up 12.34 at 5,225.48 and the S&P 500 up 0.85 at 2,181.74.

In Asia, the Nikkei was recently up 27.18 points at 16,793.64 - the Hang Seng up 92.84 at 22,558.45.

WTI crude oil traded at $42.77 a barrel and Brent at $44.98.

Gold settled at $1,339.00 an ounce.

Trade well and prosper!

The Papers

Good morning!

Guardian Stock Brokers

INDICES
FTSE 100

The FTSE remains within an uptrend over the past week, despite early selling at the open today. Crucially that weakness saw a pullback into the 76.4% retracement, only to spike higher once more. Thus the bullish outlook remains unless we see a break below the last swing low of 6808. Given this, another leg higher is expected, with 6863 the next resistance point of note.


DAX

The DAX saw a massive move higher yesterday, with the index breaking through a number of key resistance levels on the way. So far this morning has seen sideways consolidation and given the trend over the past week, there is good reason to believe we will see another move higher from here. However, given the risk of a deep pullback of yesterday’s move, it makes sense to await an hourly close above 10703 as a signal that we will not see a deeper pullback.


S&P 500

The S&P 500 is in the process of bouncing from the 2178 support region once more, in a continuation of the range that has held for almost five days now. The current resistance is being provided by the ascending trendline which was broken overnight. Essentially we expect this pattern to hold until the index posts an hourly closed candle above 2187 or below 2177.


FX
EURUSD

EURUSD saw substantial gains yesterday, after breaking out of a consolidation period. Interestingly, we have seen a trend of lower highs and lower lows on the wider perspective, with the break below 1.1154 and 1.1071 particularly notable. For this to be negated, we would need to see a break through the 1.1162 level, thus sparking a new higher high. Given the recent wedge breakout on the stochastic, there is a good chance we could see this market move lower. As such, unless we see an hourly close above 1.1162, a bearish outlook is preferred, if only to retrace some of yesterday’s substantial gains.


GBPUSD

A similar story for GBPUSD, which is pulling back following a failure to break through the 1.3098 mark. Essentially we would need to see such a move for the downtrend to be negated. Until that happens, a bearish view remains in place, with a move back down to 1.2954 expected.


USDJPY

USDJPY has sold off sharply overnight, bringing price back to a crucial trendline support. With the stochastic now oversold and the past two candles posting long lower shadows into the 76.4% fib, there is a good chance we will see the pair start to strengthen once more. From a wider perspective, the fleeting push above 106.84 raised questions over whether this 8 month downtrend was over. As such, there is a good chance that we will see the creation of a new higher high above 107.47 rather than a continuation of the downtrend. With that in mind, a bounce from here is distinctly possible and should be watched closely. This bullish outlook would be negated should price break below 100.68.


COMMODITIES
Gold

Yesterday’s rally in Gold came off the back of a similarly sharp downturn last week. The overall wider bullish view remains in play and as such we were looking for longs despite recent weakness. Certainly the $1338 neckline break was a strong signal yesterday, with price coming back to retest this level following the breakout. We have since seen a strong move higher, with price currently consolidating from an overbought position. It does not make much sense to add any new positions from here unless we receive a signal that a pullback is not in the offing. As such, an hourly close below $1351 would point towards a more protracted move lower, with an hourly close back above $1355 needed to provide a resumption of the uptrend.


Brent Crude

Brent has formed a double top formation following the strong move higher in recent days. This points towards the potential for this uptrend to be under pressure and such, further losses seem likely from here. An hourly close above $45.23 would be required to negate this view. Watch out for support levels at $44.13 and $43.59, whereas support would be found at $33.82, $45.23 and $45.89.


Disclaimer

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