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FTSE / DOW YTD

Morning!

In the US last night, the Dow finished up 59.58 at 18,636.05 the Nasdaq up 29.12 at 5,262.02 and the S&P 500 up 6.10 at 2,190.15.

In Asia, the Nikkei was recently down 160.13 points at 16,707.74 - the Hang Seng up 25.74 at 22,958.25.

WTI crude oil traded at $45.74 a barrel and Brent at $48.35.

Gold settled at $1,340.30 an ounce.

Trade well and prosper!

The Papers

Good morning!!

Guardian Stock Brokers

INDICES
FTSE 100

The FTSE has been weakening overnight, with price marginally falling below the 76.4% retracement this morning. Given the uptrend in play and the fact that price has not broken below 6893, a bullish outlook remains in play. As such, we would need to see a closed hourly candle below 6893 to negate this bullish short term view. This pullback appears to provide a good opportunity to get long at an advantageous price set within a clearly defined uptrend.


DAX

The DAX has also pulled back this morning, with the index breaking below both trendline and horizontal (10673) support. However, the key swing low that needs to be taken out for the current bullish outlook to come into question is 10632. As such, until we see an hourly close below 10632, a bullish outlook remains.


Dow

The Dow is selling off heavily this morning, following yet another new high yesterday. We have seen this before and typically retracements like this end up resolving with another move higher. Friday’s pullback into the 61.8% exemplifies that. With price currently utilizing the 61.8% as support, there is a chance we will head higher from here. Otherwise, we are looking at the 76.4% (18565) level as another good entry point to get long. This bullish view remains unless price breaks and posts an hourly candle below 18533.


FX
EURUSD

EURUSD is rallying through the crucial 1.1230 resistance level this morning, providing us with another higher high on the four hour chart. This provides us with a good overall perspective to show that the current resurgence looks like a retracement of the referendum downturn. As such, with price approaching the 76.4% retracement at 1.1305, we are looking for shorts around that area to get back on the long term downtrend. Clearly that would mean there is a strong chance of further upside until then. We would need price to break through the 1.1428 resistance to negate that bearish view.


GBPUSD

GBPUSD is seeing a resurgence this morning, following yet another leg lower yesterday. Ultimately there are two potential swing highs that the pair is likely to turn lower below. Firstly, 1.2945 should hold as resistance, yet should we see an hourly close above here, we would be looking for shorts again around 1.2995. We are in a clearly defined downtrend and as such, unless we see an hourly close above 1.3035, a bearish outlook remains in place.


USDCAD

USDCAD has posted yet another sharp leg lower this morning, as the deterioration that has been in place over recent weeks continues. Clearly it is a very reliable downtrend and thus while it seems a little late to go short here, any decent sized pullback will not doubt be perceived as a good area to get short once more.


COMMODITIES
Gold

Gold has been rallying out of the 76.4% retracement area over the past two days, with a clear and consistent period of strength in play. Given the attraction to the $1357 area, there is a strong likeliness that we will see Gold push higher towards the resistance level. Ultimately the long term view is bullish and this this short term view corresponds with that outlook.


Brent

Brent has seen another leg higher in this short term recovery. Ultimately the biggest hurdle that needs overcoming is $48.82, which currently marks the high of the day. As such, the response to this level will dictate the state of play both for today and weeks to come. As such, while price remains below $48.82, watch out for intraday bearish reversal signs. Alternately, an hourly close above this level could spark another leg higher for Brent.


Disclaimer

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