Well well well....this is quite a surprise.....more than 1 billion barrels apparently....if only brent crude could go up a bit as well....

Bought some earlier at 56.45p

After the large rise at the time of the news last week, there was a retracement and culminating on yesterday's early marked down and staying that way all day 53.75 / 54p.

Today was soon on the move up and has not stopped moving higher just like the 1 year uptrend chart.

On April 7, Hurricane said its latest estimate for Lancaster field reserves had been upgraded threefold to just shy of 600million barrels based on a predicted 25% recovery factor.

UK mainstream media grabbed onto that, declaring that the West of Shetland asset’s overall reserves had passed the 2billion mark.
The fourth, Halifax, had been declared just days earlier on March 27; not only did it appear to be a huge find, it appeared to be geologically linked to the first discovery 35km distant, as prognosed, namely Lancaster.

Add to all this stock market investor boards chit-chat speculating that Hurricane might even have discovered at least 8billion barrels with its four exploration successes ... Lancaster and Halifax, Lincoln and Whirlwind ... and we have exciting times on the UK Atlantic Frontier.
In this exclusive, Hurricane’s CEO Dr Robert Trice summarises progress to date, paying particular attention to the results of freshly completed Halifax and the next steps with
Lancaster where an early produuction system will be installed in 2019. Critically with Lancaster, Trice and his team can get on with raising the funding needed for the EPS and to ensure first oil from the two wells drilled so far gets to market ASAP.

“We have successfully drilled two horizontal wells (wells 6 and 7z), which we have already demonstrated to the Market ... flow at high rates with very low draw-down and they’re ready to produce,” he said.
“What we’re doing this year is talking to the industry. We’re also looking independently at how we would finance it ourselves because the industry may not move fast enough or may not be interested. But we are looking to fund the EPS.

“In fact the industry is very, very interested and I must say that attitudes have changed dramatically with the results from Lincoln and results of the ‘four’ well.
“There appears to be general acceptance that there is a large oil column at Lancaster and there is oil beyond the Lancaster boundary. The potential of producing water is low to zero. That is the scientific view.

“Regarding EPS fundraising, our target is to have the money raised this summer so that we will be in a position to make the augmentations to the vessel ... but no material modifications to the topsides.
“The reason why we think we have a good chance of doing this quickly and without delays is that the FPSO it was last used for producing oil of a similar nature to Hurricane’s. The API is 38 degrees; its high quality oil with relatively low sulphur content. Financially it’s equivalent to Brent.

“The EPS is seen as a very low risk investment to establish the big prize. We wish to raise $450million to be up and running by 2019. That’s not much and it will quickly become a cash generator. Currently we’re on track.”

When Energy met up with Trice, he could barely contain his excitement.
Bear in mind that he possibly knows more about basement geology than anyone else, was bursting with excitement, having been aboard the rig Transocean Spitsbergen for the closing stages of the Halifax well operations when the decision to drill deeper than originally planned was taken in lieu of the intended drillstem test. A hydrocarbon column of more than 1,000m was encountered with no sign of oil:water contact.

The DST had been intended to measure reservoir pressure and bring oil to surface. That was its purpose. It was never designed to achieve a commercial flow-rate. It would have helped reinforce the belief that Halifax and Lancaster are one reservoir. So what were the signals from the well that gave Trice the confidence to say what you have?

“We’ve got a mass of core data. Although we didn’t bring oil to surface we got pressures and those are being evaluated along with the wireline logs.”
So why can we say we believe the well supports our model?
“The first observation is that the well encountered an extensive oil column. If there was no connection between Lancaster and Halifax we would have expected there to be a shorter oil column. That would have taken the form of a local structural closure around Halifax and that would kill the model.

“The other piece is that the Lancaster and Halifax geology appears to be the same. Whilst drilling through the fractures, there was a familiarity about the way in which the drill-bit behaved. We saw the same drilling characteristics, gas chromatography, ROP (rate of penetration).

“But the real point is that when we look at the Rona Ridge from Lancaster to Halifax (Greater Lancaster) ... the whole thing is fractured ... faulted. Every 100m you’ve got some large feature and that’s the point. That is reservoir.
“We cannot see anything that cuts the ridge that would be a clear barrier. Now, between Lancaster and Lincoln, we can. And that fault runs all the way to Faroe. It is called the Brynhild Fault Zone.

“It clearly offsets Lancaster and Lincoln because we have a much deeper oil column at Lincoln than Lancaster. That’s a barrier; no argument. We see a similar fault at the end of Halifax ... at the end of our segment of the Rona Ridge called the Westray Fault, which we believe segregates Halifax from the ridge that runs all the way up to Clair.
“But we cannot see anything of that nature between Lancaster and Halifax. Our observations support our model that it’s a single entity.”

Out of curiosity, from the publicly available geo-knowledge of the Rona Ridge sector, is there any evidence of similar significant barrier between the one the Hurricane team now knows exists between its acreage and the next bit of the Rona Ridge? According to Trice the answer is yes; there are indeed lineaments (distinct features) between
Clair and the top end of Hurricane’s acreage.

Sometimes, news gets skewed and it did with Halifax. Speculation was of a billion barrels find; Hurricane did not publish an estimate.
Trice: “We’ve not said a billion barrels; I’d like to make that very clear. Whoever said that, I think they took the original (Lancaster) CPR (competent person’s report), they’ve looked at the oil-water contacts and assumptions that we used in that original CPR, then applied our new understanding of Lancaster and then come up with a number.

“I’m not being evasive. But what I can say is that we have publicly stated that a (revised) CPR for Lancaster will be available shortly. (It had not appeared as Energy went to print). Later in the year we will have another CPR covering all of our assets.”
This is for the armchair oilman: OK, the Halifax well is 35km from the Lancaster wells, and Hurricane is talking of an oil column of more than 1km depth, but how wide is that fairway?

People have been trying to compare Lancaster to Brent and Forties and have been trying to work out some sort of a volume for the discovery.
And, is Trice convinced that Hurricane actually has located the UK equivalent of Norway’s latest giant, Johan Sverdrup, which is now being developed?

“Here’s what I can say. Johan Sverdrup was the first time in Norway where they woke to the fact that the basement there was permeable and therefore was potentially a reservoir. So, yes.
“There’s a clastic wedge on top, which is the primary reservoir but they drilled into the basement and they’ve got oil down there. What woke them up was that they couldn’t treat the basement as a seal.
“That was the big wake-up call for the Norwegians.

“I was at a conference two years ago in Norway where they take basement very seriously and Johan Sverdrup was presented. Numbers had been calculated ... I think they’ve got a 100m column. Now, that’s a massive area so it’s a big volume. It’s a material resource.”
Limited information about Johan Sverdrup is in the public domain, but a Master’s Degree thesis completed last year is quite revealing. Go find “The Petroleum Geochemistry of the Johan Sverdrup Field, Southern Utsira High, Norwegian North Sea” – A study of maturity, organofacies, reservoir filling and biodegradation, by Fredrik Wesenlund.

In the Halifax discovery statement, Hurricane explained why the decision to deepen the well was taken

The last Intraday high was @ 62p end of March, so the way is going today it is a matter of time
just gone as I am posting

66.25p +6.75p (+11.34%)

The BREAKOUT did happend and with volume

There was a 50K @ 66.50p on the offer side that was holding the stock rise, but after a few buys, most likely punters ahead of tomorrow the trade was withdrawn and the rest of smaller ones, but a very small trade @ 66.25p has been added instead

50K buy paying premium 66.66p

order book still strong at the end
more to come tomorrow?

Broker's view's reminder

13 Apr 17 finnCap Buy 91.00 130.00 Retains
27 Mar 17 finnCap Buy 91.00 91.00 Retains
17 Feb 17 finnCap Buy 91.00 91.00 Retains
07 Feb 17 Cantor Fitzgerald Buy 69.00 69.00 Reiterates
07 Feb 17 finnCap Buy 91.00 91.00 Retains
03 Feb 17 Macquarie Outperform 90.00 89.00 Reiterates
16 Jan 17 Cantor Fitzgerald Buy 69.00 69.00 Reiterates
16 Jan 17 finnCap Buy 91.00 91.00 Retains

Some punters were expecting news this morning after the large volume and share price rise, but this to me is the normal face of a BREAKOUT.

some holders or most likely punters of yesterday rise decided to sell, so MMs happy to fill their books with shares they sold at a higher price.

Now not all is lost on the uptrend of the share price, and after reaching a 61.50p low with an small "AT", we are bouncing back.

order book DEPTH 34 v 27
now strong on the bid side after being negative during the first hour of trading

This is short term talk

The MACD is not really high, though it had a sharp rise.
It is the Indicators RSI and Slow Stochastic that they have reached the overbought territory and now turning, though they could still move higher.

The more important one is the Bollinger Bands, and in this case the share price has gone over the upper Band and on those cases they say :........
.....Buy at the lower band and sell at the higher Band

So is up to you if you looking short term or long term what to do next, I sold at 65.22p
--------
order book level to weak now

Chart with Indicators

Hurricane Energy more than doubles recoverable oil estimate from North Sea field

LONDON, May 8 (Reuters) - Hurricane Energy, which specialises in extracting oil from naturally fractured rock, said on Monday the amount of oil estimated to be recoverable from its Lancaster field in the North Sea is 162 percent higher than previously thought.

The company said the latest independent analysis of reserves at the field showed 523 million barrels of oil could be recoverable, more than double the amount assessed in 2013.

The total volume of oil in place at the field was put at 2.3 billion barrels, up 120 percent from the 2013 report, Hurricane said.

"We believe this has the scale to attract interest from major oil companies," said analysts at RBC Capital Markets.

North Sea oil and gas production levels have slumped from a peak around the turn of the century and a three-year oil market downturn has curbed exploration for new resources.

However a series of small oil explorers deploying new techniques to retrieve hydrocarbons at lower costs and more efficiently, including Hurricane, have revived hopes that Britain's remaining 24 billion barrels can be retrieved.

Hurricane said 37.3 million barrels of proven reserves (2P) at Lancaster were worth $525 million.

"We expect to publish CPRs (Competent Person's Report) relating to Halifax and Lincoln later in 2017, which we are confident will be a material addition to our already significant resource base," Hurricane Chief Executive Robert Trice said.

In March, Hurricane said its Halifax oil discovery, extending into its Lancaster field, was the largest undeveloped discovery on the UK Continental Shelf.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-4484012/Hurricane-Energy-doubles-recoverable-oil-estimate-North-Sea-field.html#ixzz4gV8mycny

bought back at under 60.25p

yesterday went as low of 76.4% fibonacci retracement, is bouncing from that point

61.75p +1p

Well, things are hotting up now after the 2 hours pause, 61p resistance gone, and now is as support

order book has improved even more and now - DEPTH almost double on the bid side 42 v 22

It seems the gravy train (1) is in its way
"Some are trying to get on board the gravy train (HUR)"

note 1 : something that provides money to many people without requiring much work or effort

62.75p +2p
PROACTIVE INVESTOR
Hurricane Energy’s discoveries are likely in the crosshairs of “very big” oil companies - analyst - 11:41 11 May 2017

Hurricane Energy Plc’s (LON:HUR) potentially giant discoveries may be in the crosshairs of “very big” oil companies, according to expert commentator Malcolm Graham Wood.

Having now confirmed a multi-billion barrel in the waters in the West of Shetland region the UK offshore oiler is understood to be seeking finance for the initial development of the Lancaster field – which could be producing crude as soon as 2019.

A farm-out to a larger oil company could be a possible means of funding the development of Hurricane’s increasingly substantial asset base, according to Malcolm Graham Wood, who sees the company’s share price going much higher from the current price of around 60p.

“A very big company would consider farming into this project, and therefore I would think almost certainly that it [the share price] would bounce off there [the current level],” he said in a segment for Tip TV.

“I’ve got 100p there [as a target price]. I’ve had that in for ages, and I see no reason to change it at the moment.”

Zak Mir, Tip TV host and resident technical analyst, meanwhile, agrees that the Hurricane share price ought to go higher with the chart informing his 80p target.

The respective price targets represent some 58% and 26% upside to Hurricane’s current price of 63p.

“Competent persons reports are meant to be disappointing”
Hurricane’s share price has been somewhat subdued following the release of a competent persons report (CPR) which set out contingent resources that will be addressable by the planned early production system (EPS) at Lancaster.

It is understood that Hurricane will need to secure around US$450mln of capital for the project, and the CPR was seen as a precursor to the fund raising exercise.

Malcolm Graham Wood noted that the hotly anticipated CPR was ‘a little disappointing’ for some investors, though he says that’s this would be typical.

“I can tell you that CPRs are always disappointing because they’re meant to be like that. They’re meant to be a conservative analysis of what the oil company has got in the ground.

“It was only for Lancaster, which is just part of the business, and it is extremely positive, it has got 2.3bn barrels and so many different things to develop.

“Yes, the market can tell itself that there might be a [fund] raise, and there will be some sort of a raise, because we’re going into the development phase for this company – so there’ll be a small amount of equity I expect.”

CPR sets Hurricane on a course to first production
The company on Monday outlined the details of a new competent persons report which estimated some 523mln barrels of contingent resources.

It detailed the oil reserves that will be addressable by the planned early production system (EPS), due to come into production in 2019. The proved and probable (2P) reserves for the initial six-year EPS are estimated at 37.3mln barrels, valued by RPS at US$525mln (net value).

The CPR focussed on just one part of a project - the Licence P.1368 Central area, a specific part of the Lancaster project that will host to the planned Lancaster EPS.

It is expected that the new CPR provides an important precursor to the project funding process.

Financing plans and final investment decision
Hurricane is targeting a final investment decision for the Lancaster EPS by the end of the first half of 2017, and Monday’s CPR is an important milestone in achieving that.

The company will need to finalise financing, the capital requirement is estimated at around US$450m, for the EPS and it will need to be ready to submit its plans to the UK regulator.

The EPS is anticipated to be a 17,000 barrel per day operation, tied into a floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) facility (which has already been signed up via an arrangement with Bluewater Energy Services).

Given its scale and relatively achievable funding requirements, the EPS is deemed to be a logical, manageable and value-adding step.

In a recent chat, Hurricane boss Dr Robert Trice explained that two parallel financing work ‘streams’ are underway, Trice explains.

One process sees Hurricane going it alone. It is working on a fund raising process that will include equity, bonds and regular debt-based project financing.

This scenario will see Hurricane land the US$450mln it needs to deliver the EPS whilst retaining 100% of the project, though it will also result in some dilution for equity holders.

A farm-out deal could, however, be an alternative approach to securing the EPS funding.

A third option could also be possible, whereby Hurricane raises a smaller amount of funds and also brings in a partner.

Due for a bounce?
less than 38.2% Intraday retracement, but buyers are returning

Who cares.

Finncap target.

Cantor Fitzgerald Buy 61.88 - - Reiterates

finnCap Buy 61.88 130.00 130.00 Retains

New Hurricane Energy (LON:HUR) Rating From Finncap Indicates Stock As Potential Buy
By Ashley Brown / in Stocks / on Saturday, 13 May 2017 10:00 AM /

Following an update released by analysts at Finncap on Friday the broker has now set a ‘Buy’ rating on shares of Hurricane Energy (LON:HUR) with a price target of 130.

On Friday Finncap maintained its target for shares of Hurricane Energy as ‘Buy’ recommending a target price of 130 for investors; potentially meaning there is an increase of 109.44% from Hurricane Energy’s share price of 62.07.

Hurricane Energy has 730,566,000 shares currently held by shareholders which currently trade around the 62.07 mark which totals Hurricane Energy’s market capitalisation to 453.46M GBP.

12 Month Share Chart For Hurricane Energy - LON:HUR
In the duration of 12 months Hurricane Energy’s share price has increased by 335.58% to 62.07 from 14.25.
The business has a 50 day moving average of 57.86 and a 200 day moving average of 49.13 whilst the 52 week high shares of Hurricane Energy have reached is 67.9 and the 52 week low is 13.1.

Hurricane Energy plc is engaged in the exploration of oil and gas reserves principally on the United Kingdom Continental Shelf. The Company’s acreage is on the United Kingdom Continental Shelf, West of Shetland, on which the Company has approximately two basement reservoir discoveries, each containing approximately 200 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe).

Its licenses include P1368, P1485, P1835 and P2294. The Company has approximately 450 million barrels of 2C Contingent Resources on acreage. Its Lancaster discovery is located in blocks, including 205/21a, 205/22a and 205/26b.

The Whirlwind discovery is located across blocks, including 205/21a and 205/22a in the West of Shetland. The Lincoln Basement prospect is located in 205/26b block.
The Typhoon prospect is located in blocks, including 204/22a, 204/23c, 204/27a and 204/28a. The Strathmore Prospect is located in the 204/30a block, and contains oil in Triassic-aged sandstones.

A complete melt down today.

Just shows. You can analyse until you're blue in the face - as professionals and amateurs do - but without all the information, the answer could still be a raspberry.

this was 68p a few weeks ago.