............ sell when the violins are playing."

Quoted Lord Nathan Rothschild in 1810.



No doubt everyone's heard of the family, even if they haven't heard his quote. Allowing for the effects of inflation, the fellow was richer than Bill Gates is today. A Crafty Banker, so's to speak.

Click here to find out a bit about the Rothschild family

Anyway, this thread isn't about the Rothschild family or how they made their money or the controversy around them. This thread is about the title ........ Buy when the cannons are thundering. Like it or not, the chances are that we're going to war. In my opinion, George Dubbya won't be happy till he's riding side saddle on an exocet missile down Baghdad High Street. But even that's another story.

At the moment, the markets are falling in anticipation of Bush pulling the trigger. But if or when he does, will that herald the bottom of the current bear market which has now lasted for nigh on 3 years? And will the markets rally at the start of the war? Or at the end of the war which will presumably be once Saddam has been vanquished? Or will they not rally at all? Will a 200 year old adage still hold true in the 21st Century?

On my part, I can see fundamental worth now in a lot of stocks that I'd like to buy at some stage in the future. That doesn't necessarily mean that I think they've hit their bottom already. But the benchmark is the indices and the FTSE100 is now at a 6 year low from before Tony Blair took office. The bear market has got to end somewhere, but where? That somewhere is, historically, when the last man on the street sells.

So WHEN will YOU buy? And WHAT will you buy?

Is war inevitable ? Unfortunately Bush and Blair are both too young to remember the last one and the atrocious suffering it caused. If either of them had to lead the attack in person they would be more likely to find a way to avoid it. Churchill used to say that jaw, jaw, was better than war war. Those ignorant of the past are condemned to repeat it. Anyway they are the ones to whom we have given the matches and they are itching to strike them.. The problem with setting fire to things is that nobody really knows where it will end.

ttt

welsh uprising?