What are peoples views on Lloyds at current price. Over 50% below year's high, currently yielding 8.75% has problems with Scottish Widows and is in a highly competitive albeit one with a lot of inertia by account holders.

I have a view that even if they cut the dividend by say 50% they will still yield over 4.25% which is just below Barclays at 4.75% but still above what you will earn in the Building Society or Bank.

IMHO this does mean the shares are good value in the long term and should bounce if the dividend is held or reduced by 50% or less.

What do others think?

The Golfer

mind you dont get bunkered !


all i would say as a loquacious caddy is,....the banking sector has been in a rather vicious downtrend for a good while,suffice to say it's not the kind of sector to buck a bear market !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
if you thought that it was the bottom on the banks before now,you were wrong,.....did you,and did it cost you money ?

if you think this time your actually right,the market forces (rightly or wrongly)are still not of that view,so the odds are against you.

above all the chance of catching the actual bottom is as likely as catching the top.

Would you fancy driving a ball down a dogleg fairway,with the wind strongly blowing to the out of bounds,...or given the choice,would you prefer a wind in your favour ?

if you'd say..." a wind in my favour" then your sort of answering your own question !!
as the ole saying goes
"you drive for show,but you putt for dough" !!!

or to translate the analogy,...its the wreckless all-or-nothing stuff that ruins one's scorecard

i know you only asked about lloyds,
but i'm afraid your name sparked off an analogy or two,
hope it's of use to you,!!!!!!!!!
all IMHO.

Khameleous

I like your analogy and in that respect I would agree. However the key to this shot is the dividend yield and whether it will be maintained.

If I believe it will be then the shot is over the water to the green.

If I believe they will cut then I postpone going for the green and knock out sideways onto the fairway and bide my time.

Investing like golf is albout decisions decisions decisions. Do I take the gamble and go for the shot or do I play safe and bide my time??????

The Golfer

PS. i have not read it as yet,but,apparently HOW TO PLAY YOUR BEST GOLF by Tommy Armour,is a absolutely classic golf book,see the reviews on amazon

given that decisions in sport can lend themselves to other things,i dare say its almost an investment book into the bargain !!

anyway,im just the caddy,so tell me the club u want and i'll hand it to you !!

I feel good so a trusty 5 wood over the water is the shot. What does the caddy think?

well,since you asked,
.....i'm hoping you'll play a three-quater two-iron,
keep it low,under the treetops/wind,with a subtle bit of draw.

12 foot to the right of the pin,
let the slope of the green take it to the flag



PS. i cant wait for the US Masters !!

THE GOLFER,

At 408.25p with a stop at 391.75p I think LLOY is a long personally.



Cheers

Ash

Thanks Ash

Personally I agree and have gone long in anticipation but all IMHO.

The Golfer

Holding up well in a difficult market and should be well supported in anticipation of the dividend.

I am just dribbling in small amounts of cash monthly through Halifax Sharebuilder and at the moment averaging down paper losses. Like you, I hope that it will come good in the longer term.

Ash, before the upturn in LLoy starts it has to break that 20day m/a of the Bollinger Band in your charts. It is currently acting as a resistance I won't be too happy until I see it above that level. The other thing is that the stochastics you print looks oversold. That combination leads me to be wary.

However, having said all that the weekly chart on metastock looks bullish so there might be some upward movement there. Also, it's just about broken the down trend from the end of Nov. to today.

Barclays' chart looks exactly the same. I'm long on that but I haven't much confidence it will progress beyond 400.

Harvey

Hey Harvey

- With whats been happening to Lloyds & Barclays since your post - it makes what you say quite interesting!!!!!!!!!!!!

Still cheap. I am certain in the next few weeks, as the FTSE moves over 4000, the momentum is going to keep it rising. We are going to see rises mainly in the banking and insurance sector, and so these stocks still have a long way to go.